Sunday, November 27, 2011

WASEAN NCAA Football Ratings – 2011 Week 13

There is a lot of talk as to whether or not there should be a rematch between LSU and Alabama in the national championship game. Put WASEAN firmly in the camp that says, ‘yes’.

How far ahead are Alabama and LSU? According to WASEAN, Alabama should be a 7.5 point favorite on a neutral field over #3 Wisconsin. That’s as far ahead as Wisconsin is ahead of #10 Michigan or #11 Arkansas, for example.

Another way to look at this is that LSU would have to lose to Georgia 30-0 to fall behind Wisconsin for #2.

I’m definitely not in favor of a rematch in most circumstances. In most circumstances, we really don’t know if #2 is better than #3 or #4, so I’d lean towards giving someone else a shot.

But Alabama and LSU played an overtime game, as have beaten all others. They’ve clearly proven they are the two best teams in the country.

Please click the ‘read more’ link to see the complete ratings.

Tuesday, November 15, 2011

WASEAN NCAA Football Ratings – 2011 Week 11

Oregon and Oklahoma State have moved up to 3-4, while Stanford and Boise State drop to 7-8 after losing. I don’t see much chance of the “Big Eight” changing, as the gulf between #8 and #9 and is bigger than the spread between #9 and #17.

To see the complete rankings, please click the “read more” link.

Sunday, November 6, 2011

WASEAN NCAA Football Ratings – 2011 Week 10

WASEAN treats overtime games as ties . . . and while LSU closed much of the gap on Alabama (a road tie is more impressive than a home tie), they are still a hair (.0037) behind Alabama. Stanford is a solid third, but .0352 behind LSU for some perspective on how close Alabama and LSU are at 1-2.

There are just 3 unbeaten/untied (in regulation) teams remaining in the FBS. #4 Boise State, #8 Oklahoma State and #9 Houston. Houston is not on the same level with the others – the Cougars are closer to #20 than to #8.

Boise plays it’s toughest remaining game next week, taking on #14 TCU.

To see the complete ratings, please click the ‘read more’ link.

Sunday, October 30, 2011

WASEAN NCAA Football Ratings–2011 Week 9

Not a whole lot of commentary this week . . . like everyone else, WASEAN has Alabama and LSU way ahead of the pack. Unless the game this weekend is a blowout, both will probably remain 1-2 afterwards.

Stanford’s rating dropped significantly after going to OT with USC, but they had enough of a lead that they are still clinging to #3 over Boise State.

From there it’s another big drop down to the pack of Oregon, Oklahoma State, Oklahoma and Wisconsin.

Houston is starting to gain some ground, moving up 6 places from #18 to #12. I can’t see them going too much higher. They are closer to #18 than #10.

WASEAN was not a big fan of Clemson, sending them into Saturday’s duel with Georgia Tech ranked #16 – lower than just about anyone else. After a 31-17 loss to #43 Georgia Tech the Tigers sit at #24.

Please click the ‘read more’ link to see the complete rankings.

Sunday, October 16, 2011

WASEAN NCAA Football Ratings – 2011 Week 7

Another hum-drum weekend . . . the big-six all cruised to victory.

A few of the pretender unbeatens (Michigan, Illinois and Georgia Tech), although Michigan’s ranking barely budged. Note, the Wolverines’ rating took quite a hit, from .8771 to .8419. But, they were far enough ahead of the pack that they had some wiggle room.

Notre Dame’s rating took quite a hit, despite a week off. The Irish fell from #10 to #16 – Pitt, Air Force, Purdue and South Florida all lost, and while Michigan State won they beat Michigan.

Clemson needed to come from behind to beat #62 Maryland. I’m still calling them a pretender. We’ll find out about Kansas State in two weeks. At that point they play #5 Oklahoma, #8 Oklahoma State, #10 Texas A&M over a three-week stretch.

To see the complete rankings, please click “read more”.

Sunday, October 9, 2011

WASEAN Team Ratings – 2011 Week 6

Not a whole lot of shakeup at the top this week. A little minor shuffling, but no one moved in or out of the top 10.

At this point, we can say that we have 6 really good teams, one of which will likely win the championship.

RK LW Team WASEAN RW RL RT
1 1 Alabama 0.9250 6 0 0
2 7 Boise State 0.9159 5 0 0
3 2 Oklahoma 0.9156 5 0 0
4 3 Stanford 0.9134 5 0 0
5 5 LSU 0.9050 6 0 0
6 4 Wisconsin 0.9022 5 0 0


Note that Boise State’s non-conference schedule is starting to look pretty solid. Georgia (who Boise beat 35-21 in Atlanta) is #12 in WASEAN and Toledo (40-15) is #27. Unfortunately, Georgia doesn’t play LSU or Alabama, so a direct comparison for Boise won’t be in the cards, unless Georgia can get to the SEC championship game. That would require South Carolina to lose another in league while Georgia runs the table.

We also have two very good teams (Michigan and Oklahoma State) that are undefeated, but probably not as good as the teams above. Oregon is number 7, but they’ve already lost to LSU, and aren’t very likely to get a shot.

RK LW Team WASEAN RW RL RT
8 6 Michigan 0.8771 6 0 0
9 9 Oklahoma State 0.8564 5 0 0


Then we have the pretenders, teams that are undefeated so far, but really aren’t anything special.

RK LW Team WASEAN RW RL RT
18 29 Kansas State 0.7525 5 0 0
23 17 Clemson 0.7833 6 0 0
25 35 Illinois 0.7745 6 0 0
29 45 Houston 0.7715 6 0 0
32 15 Georgia Tech 0.7660 6 0 0

To see the complete rankings, please click “read more”.

Thursday, October 6, 2011

2011 WASEAN Team Ratings – Week 5

We finally have enough data to post some meaningful rankings.

I don’t have very much time for analysis this week, but I’ll note that the rankings through this point last season had 89% correlation with the final regular season rankings – so we do know a lot about these teams at this point.

Note these ratings do not include games of Thursday October 6, 2011.

Thursday, February 10, 2011

2010 WASEAN Team Ratings – Final Including Bowls

I realize I’m about a month late here; but hey, this isn’t my full-time job!

Auburn won the national championship, and for that I congratulate them. The Tigers had a great season. I don’t think they were the best team in the country though - when looking at the entire season.

That doesn’t mean they didn’t deserve the championship, the best team doesn’t always win. At the end of the year, they probably were the best team, or at least as good as anyone else. But they were nothing special for the first half of the season, need I remind you of their OT game with Clemson, or their 37-34 nail-biter with Kentucky?

That being said, I am going to rework the ratings in the off-season, so they give more of a feel for who had the best season, as opposed to who would win if we played every game 1000 times. The idea is to look at a team’s opponents and the scores of the games, then look at the odds that a team of a certain quality would have the team’s record against that schedule. It’s something similar to what Bill James did in his early Abstracts when rating pitchers.

Also note who the only team undefeated in regulation was this year. That was TCU.

Please click the ‘read more’ link to see the complete ratings and have a great off-season! Also note that for the FCS teams, the regular season rank is where the team was ranked after week 12 of the season, while for the FBS teams it’s where they were ranked after week 15.

Wednesday, December 8, 2010

2010 WASEAN Team Ratings – Final Regular Season

Boise State finishes the year on top despite their overtime loss at Nevada. Would I rank them number 1, personally? No. I’d rank them fourth or fifth. Do I think they could be justified as no worse than even money on a neutral field with any team in the country? I do think that. WASEAN, as it’s designed right now measures a team’s strength – not how good their season necessarily was.

I’m working on that though. I’m working on a methodology for a separate rating that would measure the quality of the team’s season. It will still adjust for schedule strength. But it will also make the ratings look a little more ‘normal’.

The idea is to figure WASEAN as I currently do, but then add a step that will look at the team’s schedule and emphasize wins and losses (as opposed to points scored and allowed) more. Hopefully I can get that done in the next couple of weeks.

Without further adieu, here are the final regular season rankings. Well, almost final. I’ll add in the Army-Navy game next week (as well as the elite 8 of the FCS playoffs).

RK LW Team WASEAN RW RL RT
1 1 Boise State 0.8857 11 0 1
2 2 Oregon 0.8823 12 0 0
3 3 TCU 0.8563 12 0 0
4 4 Stanford 0.8442 11 1 0
5 5 Ohio State 0.8427 11 1 0
6 6 Alabama 0.8337 9 3 0
7 7 Auburn 0.8151 12 0 1
8 8 Virginia Tech 0.7890 11 2 0
9 9 Arkansas 0.7829 9 2 1
10 11 Wisconsin 0.7727 11 1 0
11 13 Oklahoma 0.7715 11 2 0
12 12 Missouri 0.7712 10 2 0
13 14 LSU 0.7649 10 2 0
14 16 Oklahoma State 0.7589 10 2 0
15 19 Nevada 0.7554 11 1 1
16 15 Florida State 0.7551 9 4 0
17 18 Texas A&M 0.7456 9 3 0
18 17 Nebraska 0.7453 9 3 1
19 20 Delaware 0.7436 9 1 1
20 10 South Carolina 0.7411 9 4 0
21 21 North Carolina State 0.7381 8 3 1
22 22 West Virginia 0.7346 8 2 2
23 23 Iowa 0.7277 7 5 0
24 26 Arizona State 0.7250 5 6 1
25 24 Arizona 0.7234 7 4 1
26 25 Georgia 0.7183 6 5 1
27 27 Miami (FL) 0.7134 7 4 1
28 36 Villanova 0.7106 7 4 1
29 31 Hawaii 0.7066 10 3 0
30 29 Florida 0.7015 6 5 1
31 34 Utah 0.6983 9 2 1
32 33 Mississippi State 0.6963 8 3 1
33 37 USC 0.6891 8 5 0
34 35 Michigan State 0.6890 10 1 1
35 32 Illinois 0.6855 6 5 1
36 41 Pittsburgh 0.6853 7 4 1
37 28 Northern Illinois 0.6800 10 3 0
38 38 Notre Dame 0.6790 7 4 1
39 40 UCF 0.6757 10 3 0
40 30 William & Mary 0.6743 8 4 0
41 39 Clemson 0.6737 6 5 1
42 45 New Hampshire 0.6703 8 3 1
43 42 Maryland 0.6667 8 4 0
44 49 Appalachian State 0.6644 10 1 1
45 43 Oregon State 0.6631 5 6 1
46 44 Air Force 0.6554 8 4 0
47 47 San Diego State 0.6514 8 4 0
48 46 North Carolina 0.6509 7 5 0
49 48 California 0.6461 5 7 0
50 61 Georgia Southern 0.6362 8 4 1
51 51 Navy 0.6356 8 3 0
52 52 Louisville 0.6294 6 5 1
53 54 Baylor 0.6281 7 5 0
54 55 Tulsa 0.6275 9 3 0
55 53 Penn State 0.6264 7 5 0
56 56 Kansas State 0.6259 7 5 0
57 59 Pennsylvania 0.6141 8 1 1
58 57 Michigan 0.6140 6 5 1
59 58 Jacksonville 0.6129 9 1 0
60 64 Connecticut 0.6126 7 4 1
61 68 Wofford 0.6109 9 2 0
62 60 Tennessee 0.6045 5 6 1
63 50 Stephen F. Austin 0.6023 9 3 0
64 69 James Madison 0.5991 6 4 1
65 67 Georgia Tech 0.5990 6 6 0
66 65 Southern Miss 0.5969 8 3 1
67 66 Kentucky 0.5965 6 6 0
68 62 South Florida 0.5929 5 5 2
69 70 Texas Tech 0.5899 7 5 0
70 72 Syracuse 0.5843 7 5 0
71 71 Boston College 0.5833 7 5 0
72 63 Western Illinois 0.5833 8 5 0
73 73 Temple 0.5808 7 4 1
74 74 Brigham Young 0.5779 6 6 0
75 77 Robert Morris 0.5702 8 3 0
76 83 Fresno State 0.5681 8 4 0
77 76 Western Michigan 0.5651 6 6 0
78 78 Texas 0.5649 5 7 0
79 79 Liberty 0.5631 8 3 0
80 80 Massachusetts 0.5620 6 5 0
81 82 Lehigh 0.5580 10 3 0
82 81 Sacramento State 0.5565 5 4 1
83 93 North Dakota State 0.5560 9 4 0
84 75 Cincinnati 0.5556 4 8 0
85 85 Washington 0.5552 5 6 1
86 87 Eastern Washington 0.5550 9 2 0
87 84 Harvard 0.5509 7 3 0
88 86 Houston 0.5467 5 7 0
89 88 Mississippi 0.5448 4 7 1
90 98 Chattanooga 0.5434 6 5 0
91 89 Southern Methodist 0.5390 6 6 1
92 103 Elon 0.5386 5 4 1
93 101 Furman 0.5371 5 6 0
94 95 Ohio 0.5363 8 4 0
95 90 Toledo 0.5362 8 4 0
96 91 South Alabama 0.5350 4 0 0
97 92 Northwestern 0.5341 7 5 0
98 96 Northern Arizona 0.5318 5 5 0
99 102 Army 0.5316 6 4 1
100 94 Northern Iowa 0.5311 7 4 1
101 106 Southern Utah 0.5258 5 5 0
102 100 Louisiana Tech 0.5258 5 7 0
103 97 Jacksonville State 0.5255 7 2 2
104 105 South Dakota State 0.5243 5 6 0
105 108 Colorado 0.5219 5 7 0
106 107 Iowa State 0.5209 5 6 1
107 109 Virginia 0.5205 4 8 0
108 99 Idaho 0.5155 5 7 1
109 104 UCLA 0.5148 4 8 0
110 111 Colgate 0.5137 7 4 0
111 110 Old Dominion 0.5126 8 3 0
112 112 East Carolina 0.5122 5 5 2
113 113 Dayton 0.5114 8 1 1
114 116 South Carolina State 0.5040 8 3 0
115 118 Central Michigan 0.5036 3 8 1
116 139 Troy 0.4965 7 5 0
117 115 Florida International 0.4929 5 6 1
118 119 Dartmouth 0.4881 6 3 1
119 114 Bethune-Cookman 0.4858 9 2 0
120 120 Stony Brook 0.4847 5 4 1
121 121 Rutgers 0.4824 3 8 1
122 123 Brown 0.4809 5 3 2
123 127 Coastal Carolina 0.4773 5 5 2
124 128 Arkansas State 0.4760 4 7 1
125 125 Jackson State 0.4760 7 2 0
126 122 Sam Houston State 0.4753 6 4 1
127 148 Miami (OH) 0.4750 9 4 0
128 126 Minnesota 0.4745 3 9 0
129 133 Richmond 0.4740 4 5 2
130 117 Montana State 0.4736 6 3 2
131 132 Bryant 0.4711 5 4 0
132 129 Drake 0.4701 6 4 0
133 134 Duke 0.4698 3 9 0
134 136 Maine 0.4686 3 7 1
135 130 Purdue 0.4676 4 7 1
136 140 Rhode Island 0.4669 4 6 1
137 131 Montana 0.4662 6 4 0
138 137 Grambling State 0.4649 8 1 1
139 142 Kent State 0.4616 5 7 0
140 141 Indiana 0.4614 4 7 1
141 124 Southeast Missouri State 0.4610 8 3 0
142 138 Murray State 0.4610 6 5 0
143 135 Central Arkansas 0.4609 6 4 0
144 144 Missouri State 0.4579 5 4 2
145 145 Youngstown State 0.4570 3 8 0
146 143 Southern Illinois 0.4562 3 6 1
147 146 Cal Poly 0.4561 6 4 0
148 150 Duquesne 0.4485 7 4 0
149 149 Albany 0.4479 6 4 1
150 147 Washington State 0.4460 2 10 0
151 152 Central Connecticut State 0.4449 5 3 2
152 153 Monmouth 0.4402 3 7 1
153 151 McNeese State 0.4396 6 5 0
154 155 UTEP 0.4376 6 6 0
155 154 Wake Forest 0.4370 3 9 0
156 156 Yale 0.4335 7 3 0
157 157 Texas Southern 0.4287 6 2 1
158 158 San Diego 0.4268 5 5 0
159 159 UAB 0.4229 3 7 2
160 160 Eastern Kentucky 0.4194 4 5 0
161 162 Marshall 0.4193 5 6 1
162 161 Wyoming 0.4189 3 9 0
163 164 Samford 0.4167 3 7 0
164 163 Holy Cross 0.4152 6 5 0
165 170 Utah State 0.4102 4 8 0
166 165 Fordham 0.4077 5 5 0
167 168 Wagner 0.4039 4 5 1
168 169 California-Davis 0.4033 6 5 0
169 167 Indiana State 0.4011 3 5 1
170 166 Vanderbilt 0.3990 2 10 0
171 178 Middle Tennessee State 0.3937 6 6 0
172 172 Prairie View A&M 0.3883 6 4 0
173 171 Weber State 0.3874 5 5 1
174 173 Georgia State 0.3853 4 3 2
175 175 Sacred Heart 0.3836 4 7 0
176 174 South Dakota 0.3836 3 7 0
177 177 Columbia 0.3801 4 6 0
178 176 Ball State 0.3755 3 7 2
179 182 North Texas 0.3726 3 9 0
180 181 Rice 0.3715 4 8 0
181 179 Florida A&M 0.3710 7 3 1
182 180 North Dakota 0.3679 2 8 0
183 184 Kansas 0.3660 3 9 0
184 185 Bowling Green 0.3655 2 10 0
185 183 Tennessee-Martin 0.3643 5 5 0
186 187 Louisiana-Monroe 0.3602 5 6 1
187 186 Tennessee Tech 0.3563 4 6 0
188 189 Lafayette 0.3550 2 8 1
189 204 San Jose State 0.3539 1 11 1
190 190 Alabama State 0.3500 6 3 0
191 192 Georgetown 0.3472 4 6 1
192 191 Tulane 0.3456 4 8 0
193 193 Western Kentucky 0.3444 1 10 1
194 195 Alcorn State 0.3432 4 6 0
195 194 Illinois State 0.3430 4 5 1
196 196 UNLV 0.3408 2 11 0
197 197 Butler 0.3385 2 7 0
198 199 Colorado State 0.3380 3 9 0
199 198 Campbell 0.3376 2 7 1
200 200 Tennessee State 0.3318 3 7 0
201 205 Marist 0.3316 3 7 1
202 201 Texas State 0.3307 3 6 1
203 188 Florida Atlantic 0.3295 4 8 0
204 206 Louisiana-Lafayette 0.3294 3 9 0
205 202 Southeastern Louisiana 0.3291 2 8 0
206 203 Hampton 0.3286 6 5 0
207 207 Portland State 0.3199 2 9 0
208 208 Arkansas-Pine Bluff 0.3157 4 6 0
209 210 Buffalo 0.3101 2 10 0
210 209 Northern Colorado 0.3055 2 7 1
211 213 Western Carolina 0.3042 2 8 0
212 211 Northwestern State 0.3025 2 6 1
213 212 Norfolk State 0.2986 5 5 0
214 214 Nicholls State 0.2859 2 7 1
215 215 Towson 0.2805 0 10 1
216 219 Citadel 0.2719 2 8 0
217 216 St. Francis (PA) 0.2703 1 10 0
218 218 Eastern Michigan 0.2674 1 10 1
219 217 Gardner-Webb 0.2661 2 6 2
220 221 Morehead State 0.2610 4 6 1
221 220 Eastern Illinois 0.2570 1 9 0
222 222 Presbyterian 0.2523 2 8 0
223 223 Lamar 0.2487 2 6 0
224 224 Southern University 0.2475 2 7 0
225 226 Akron 0.2454 1 9 2
226 228 Princeton 0.2427 0 9 1
227 227 Alabama A&M 0.2426 2 8 0
228 225 Delaware State 0.2423 3 8 0
229 230 Davidson 0.2411 3 7 0
230 231 Cornell 0.2399 2 8 0
231 229 Virginia Military 0.2396 2 8 0
232 232 Bucknell 0.2344 1 10 0
233 233 Memphis 0.2334 1 11 0
234 236 New Mexico State 0.2303 2 10 0
235 234 North Carolina Central 0.2296 1 6 1
236 235 Morgan State 0.2273 3 7 0
237 237 New Mexico 0.2199 1 11 0
238 238 Idaho State 0.2087 0 9 1
239 239 Charleston Southern 0.1995 1 8 0
240 240 Austin Peay 0.1798 1 9 0
241 241 North Carolina A&T 0.1668 1 8 1
242 242 Howard 0.1387 0 10 0
243 243 Savannah State 0.1189 1 8 0
244 244 Valparaiso 0.1137 0 9 0
245 245 Mississippi Valley State 0.1072 0 10 0

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