WASEAN NCAA Football Ratings – 2011 Week 13

There is a lot of talk as to whether or not there should be a rematch between LSU and Alabama in the national championship game. Put WASEAN firmly in the camp that says, ‘yes’.

How far ahead are Alabama and LSU? According to WASEAN, Alabama should be a 7.5 point favorite on a neutral field over #3 Wisconsin. That’s as far ahead as Wisconsin is ahead of #10 Michigan or #11 Arkansas, for example.

Another way to look at this is that LSU would have to lose to Georgia 30-0 to fall behind Wisconsin for #2.

I’m definitely not in favor of a rematch in most circumstances. In most circumstances, we really don’t know if #2 is better than #3 or #4, so I’d lean towards giving someone else a shot.

But Alabama and LSU played an overtime game, as have beaten all others. They’ve clearly proven they are the two best teams in the country.

Please click the ‘read more’ link to see the complete ratings.

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WASEAN NCAA Football Ratings – 2011 Week 11

Oregon and Oklahoma State have moved up to 3-4, while Stanford and Boise State drop to 7-8 after losing. I don’t see much chance of the “Big Eight” changing, as the gulf between #8 and #9 and is bigger than the spread between #9 and #17.

To see the complete rankings, please click the “read more” link.

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WASEAN NCAA Football Ratings – 2011 Week 10

WASEAN treats overtime games as ties . . . and while LSU closed much of the gap on Alabama (a road tie is more impressive than a home tie), they are still a hair (.0037) behind Alabama. Stanford is a solid third, but .0352 behind LSU for some perspective on how close Alabama and LSU are at 1-2.

There are just 3 unbeaten/untied (in regulation) teams remaining in the FBS. #4 Boise State, #8 Oklahoma State and #9 Houston. Houston is not on the same level with the others – the Cougars are closer to #20 than to #8.

Boise plays it’s toughest remaining game next week, taking on #14 TCU.

To see the complete ratings, please click the ‘read more’ link.

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WASEAN NCAA Football Ratings–2011 Week 9

Not a whole lot of commentary this week . . . like everyone else, WASEAN has Alabama and LSU way ahead of the pack. Unless the game this weekend is a blowout, both will probably remain 1-2 afterwards.

Stanford’s rating dropped significantly after going to OT with USC, but they had enough of a lead that they are still clinging to #3 over Boise State.

From there it’s another big drop down to the pack of Oregon, Oklahoma State, Oklahoma and Wisconsin.

Houston is starting to gain some ground, moving up 6 places from #18 to #12. I can’t see them going too much higher. They are closer to #18 than #10.

WASEAN was not a big fan of Clemson, sending them into Saturday’s duel with Georgia Tech ranked #16 – lower than just about anyone else. After a 31-17 loss to #43 Georgia Tech the Tigers sit at #24.

Please click the ‘read more’ link to see the complete rankings.

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WASEAN NCAA Football Ratings – 2011 Week 7

Another hum-drum weekend . . . the big-six all cruised to victory.

A few of the pretender unbeatens (Michigan, Illinois and Georgia Tech), although Michigan’s ranking barely budged. Note, the Wolverines’ rating took quite a hit, from .8771 to .8419. But, they were far enough ahead of the pack that they had some wiggle room.

Notre Dame’s rating took quite a hit, despite a week off. The Irish fell from #10 to #16 – Pitt, Air Force, Purdue and South Florida all lost, and while Michigan State won they beat Michigan.

Clemson needed to come from behind to beat #62 Maryland. I’m still calling them a pretender. We’ll find out about Kansas State in two weeks. At that point they play #5 Oklahoma, #8 Oklahoma State, #10 Texas A&M over a three-week stretch.

To see the complete rankings, please click “read more”.

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WASEAN Team Ratings – 2011 Week 6

Not a whole lot of shakeup at the top this week. A little minor shuffling, but no one moved in or out of the top 10.

At this point, we can say that we have 6 really good teams, one of which will likely win the championship.

RK	LW	Team	WASEAN	RW	RL	RT
1	1	Alabama	0.9250	6	0	0
2	7	Boise State	0.9159	5	0	0
3	2	Oklahoma	0.9156	5	0	0
4	3	Stanford	0.9134	5	0	0
5	5	LSU	0.9050	6	0	0
6	4	Wisconsin	0.9022	5	0	0

Note that Boise State’s non-conference schedule is starting to look pretty solid. Georgia (who Boise beat 35-21 in Atlanta) is #12 in WASEAN and Toledo (40-15) is #27. Unfortunately, Georgia doesn’t play LSU or Alabama, so a direct comparison for Boise won’t be in the cards, unless Georgia can get to the SEC championship game. That would require South Carolina to lose another in league while Georgia runs the table.

We also have two very good teams (Michigan and Oklahoma State) that are undefeated, but probably not as good as the teams above. Oregon is number 7, but they’ve already lost to LSU, and aren’t very likely to get a shot.

RK	LW	Team	WASEAN	RW	RL	RT
8	6	Michigan	0.8771	6	0	0
9	9	Oklahoma State	0.8564	5	0	0

Then we have the pretenders, teams that are undefeated so far, but really aren’t anything special.

RK	LW	Team	WASEAN	RW	RL	RT
18	29	Kansas State	0.7525	5	0	0
23	17	Clemson	0.7833	6	0	0
25	35	Illinois	0.7745	6	0	0
29	45	Houston	0.7715	6	0	0
32	15	Georgia Tech	0.7660	6	0	0

To see the complete rankings, please click “read more”.

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2011 WASEAN Team Ratings – Week 5

We finally have enough data to post some meaningful rankings.

I don’t have very much time for analysis this week, but I’ll note that the rankings through this point last season had 89% correlation with the final regular season rankings – so we do know a lot about these teams at this point.

Note these ratings do not include games of Thursday October 6, 2011.

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2010 WASEAN Team Ratings – Final Including Bowls

I realize I’m about a month late here; but hey, this isn’t my full-time job!

Auburn won the national championship, and for that I congratulate them. The Tigers had a great season. I don’t think they were the best team in the country though - when looking at the entire season.

That doesn’t mean they didn’t deserve the championship, the best team doesn’t always win. At the end of the year, they probably were the best team, or at least as good as anyone else. But they were nothing special for the first half of the season, need I remind you of their OT game with Clemson, or their 37-34 nail-biter with Kentucky?

That being said, I am going to rework the ratings in the off-season, so they give more of a feel for who had the best season, as opposed to who would win if we played every game 1000 times. The idea is to look at a team’s opponents and the scores of the games, then look at the odds that a team of a certain quality would have the team’s record against that schedule. It’s something similar to what Bill James did in his early Abstracts when rating pitchers.

Also note who the only team undefeated in regulation was this year. That was TCU.

Please click the ‘read more’ link to see the complete ratings and have a great off-season! Also note that for the FCS teams, the regular season rank is where the team was ranked after week 12 of the season, while for the FBS teams it’s where they were ranked after week 15.

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2010 WASEAN Team Ratings – Final Regular Season

Boise State finishes the year on top despite their overtime loss at Nevada. Would I rank them number 1, personally? No. I’d rank them fourth or fifth. Do I think they could be justified as no worse than even money on a neutral field with any team in the country? I do think that. WASEAN, as it’s designed right now measures a team’s strength – not how good their season necessarily was.

I’m working on that though. I’m working on a methodology for a separate rating that would measure the quality of the team’s season. It will still adjust for schedule strength. But it will also make the ratings look a little more ‘normal’.

The idea is to figure WASEAN as I currently do, but then add a step that will look at the team’s schedule and emphasize wins and losses (as opposed to points scored and allowed) more. Hopefully I can get that done in the next couple of weeks.

Without further adieu, here are the final regular season rankings. Well, almost final. I’ll add in the Army-Navy game next week (as well as the elite 8 of the FCS playoffs).

RK	LW	Team	WASEAN	RW	RL	RT
1	1	Boise State	0.8857	11	0	1
2	2	Oregon	0.8823	12	0	0
3	3	TCU	0.8563	12	0	0
4	4	Stanford	0.8442	11	1	0
5	5	Ohio State	0.8427	11	1	0
6	6	Alabama	0.8337	9	3	0
7	7	Auburn	0.8151	12	0	1
8	8	Virginia Tech	0.7890	11	2	0
9	9	Arkansas	0.7829	9	2	1
10	11	Wisconsin	0.7727	11	1	0
11	13	Oklahoma	0.7715	11	2	0
12	12	Missouri	0.7712	10	2	0
13	14	LSU	0.7649	10	2	0
14	16	Oklahoma State	0.7589	10	2	0
15	19	Nevada	0.7554	11	1	1
16	15	Florida State	0.7551	9	4	0
17	18	Texas A&M	0.7456	9	3	0
18	17	Nebraska	0.7453	9	3	1
19	20	Delaware	0.7436	9	1	1
20	10	South Carolina	0.7411	9	4	0
21	21	North Carolina State	0.7381	8	3	1
22	22	West Virginia	0.7346	8	2	2
23	23	Iowa	0.7277	7	5	0
24	26	Arizona State	0.7250	5	6	1
25	24	Arizona	0.7234	7	4	1
26	25	Georgia	0.7183	6	5	1
27	27	Miami (FL)	0.7134	7	4	1
28	36	Villanova	0.7106	7	4	1
29	31	Hawaii	0.7066	10	3	0
30	29	Florida	0.7015	6	5	1
31	34	Utah	0.6983	9	2	1
32	33	Mississippi State	0.6963	8	3	1
33	37	USC	0.6891	8	5	0
34	35	Michigan State	0.6890	10	1	1
35	32	Illinois	0.6855	6	5	1
36	41	Pittsburgh	0.6853	7	4	1
37	28	Northern Illinois	0.6800	10	3	0
38	38	Notre Dame	0.6790	7	4	1
39	40	UCF	0.6757	10	3	0
40	30	William & Mary	0.6743	8	4	0
41	39	Clemson	0.6737	6	5	1
42	45	New Hampshire	0.6703	8	3	1
43	42	Maryland	0.6667	8	4	0
44	49	Appalachian State	0.6644	10	1	1
45	43	Oregon State	0.6631	5	6	1
46	44	Air Force	0.6554	8	4	0
47	47	San Diego State	0.6514	8	4	0
48	46	North Carolina	0.6509	7	5	0
49	48	California	0.6461	5	7	0
50	61	Georgia Southern	0.6362	8	4	1
51	51	Navy	0.6356	8	3	0
52	52	Louisville	0.6294	6	5	1
53	54	Baylor	0.6281	7	5	0
54	55	Tulsa	0.6275	9	3	0
55	53	Penn State	0.6264	7	5	0
56	56	Kansas State	0.6259	7	5	0
57	59	Pennsylvania	0.6141	8	1	1
58	57	Michigan	0.6140	6	5	1
59	58	Jacksonville	0.6129	9	1	0
60	64	Connecticut	0.6126	7	4	1
61	68	Wofford	0.6109	9	2	0
62	60	Tennessee	0.6045	5	6	1
63	50	Stephen F. Austin	0.6023	9	3	0
64	69	James Madison	0.5991	6	4	1
65	67	Georgia Tech	0.5990	6	6	0
66	65	Southern Miss	0.5969	8	3	1
67	66	Kentucky	0.5965	6	6	0
68	62	South Florida	0.5929	5	5	2
69	70	Texas Tech	0.5899	7	5	0
70	72	Syracuse	0.5843	7	5	0
71	71	Boston College	0.5833	7	5	0
72	63	Western Illinois	0.5833	8	5	0
73	73	Temple	0.5808	7	4	1
74	74	Brigham Young	0.5779	6	6	0
75	77	Robert Morris	0.5702	8	3	0
76	83	Fresno State	0.5681	8	4	0
77	76	Western Michigan	0.5651	6	6	0
78	78	Texas	0.5649	5	7	0
79	79	Liberty	0.5631	8	3	0
80	80	Massachusetts	0.5620	6	5	0
81	82	Lehigh	0.5580	10	3	0
82	81	Sacramento State	0.5565	5	4	1
83	93	North Dakota State	0.5560	9	4	0
84	75	Cincinnati	0.5556	4	8	0
85	85	Washington	0.5552	5	6	1
86	87	Eastern Washington	0.5550	9	2	0
87	84	Harvard	0.5509	7	3	0
88	86	Houston	0.5467	5	7	0
89	88	Mississippi	0.5448	4	7	1
90	98	Chattanooga	0.5434	6	5	0
91	89	Southern Methodist	0.5390	6	6	1
92	103	Elon	0.5386	5	4	1
93	101	Furman	0.5371	5	6	0
94	95	Ohio	0.5363	8	4	0
95	90	Toledo	0.5362	8	4	0
96	91	South Alabama	0.5350	4	0	0
97	92	Northwestern	0.5341	7	5	0
98	96	Northern Arizona	0.5318	5	5	0
99	102	Army	0.5316	6	4	1
100	94	Northern Iowa	0.5311	7	4	1
101	106	Southern Utah	0.5258	5	5	0
102	100	Louisiana Tech	0.5258	5	7	0
103	97	Jacksonville State	0.5255	7	2	2
104	105	South Dakota State	0.5243	5	6	0
105	108	Colorado	0.5219	5	7	0
106	107	Iowa State	0.5209	5	6	1
107	109	Virginia	0.5205	4	8	0
108	99	Idaho	0.5155	5	7	1
109	104	UCLA	0.5148	4	8	0
110	111	Colgate	0.5137	7	4	0
111	110	Old Dominion	0.5126	8	3	0
112	112	East Carolina	0.5122	5	5	2
113	113	Dayton	0.5114	8	1	1
114	116	South Carolina State	0.5040	8	3	0
115	118	Central Michigan	0.5036	3	8	1
116	139	Troy	0.4965	7	5	0
117	115	Florida International	0.4929	5	6	1
118	119	Dartmouth	0.4881	6	3	1
119	114	Bethune-Cookman	0.4858	9	2	0
120	120	Stony Brook	0.4847	5	4	1
121	121	Rutgers	0.4824	3	8	1
122	123	Brown	0.4809	5	3	2
123	127	Coastal Carolina	0.4773	5	5	2
124	128	Arkansas State	0.4760	4	7	1
125	125	Jackson State	0.4760	7	2	0
126	122	Sam Houston State	0.4753	6	4	1
127	148	Miami (OH)	0.4750	9	4	0
128	126	Minnesota	0.4745	3	9	0
129	133	Richmond	0.4740	4	5	2
130	117	Montana State	0.4736	6	3	2
131	132	Bryant	0.4711	5	4	0
132	129	Drake	0.4701	6	4	0
133	134	Duke	0.4698	3	9	0
134	136	Maine	0.4686	3	7	1
135	130	Purdue	0.4676	4	7	1
136	140	Rhode Island	0.4669	4	6	1
137	131	Montana	0.4662	6	4	0
138	137	Grambling State	0.4649	8	1	1
139	142	Kent State	0.4616	5	7	0
140	141	Indiana	0.4614	4	7	1
141	124	Southeast Missouri State	0.4610	8	3	0
142	138	Murray State	0.4610	6	5	0
143	135	Central Arkansas	0.4609	6	4	0
144	144	Missouri State	0.4579	5	4	2
145	145	Youngstown State	0.4570	3	8	0
146	143	Southern Illinois	0.4562	3	6	1
147	146	Cal Poly	0.4561	6	4	0
148	150	Duquesne	0.4485	7	4	0
149	149	Albany	0.4479	6	4	1
150	147	Washington State	0.4460	2	10	0
151	152	Central Connecticut State	0.4449	5	3	2
152	153	Monmouth	0.4402	3	7	1
153	151	McNeese State	0.4396	6	5	0
154	155	UTEP	0.4376	6	6	0
155	154	Wake Forest	0.4370	3	9	0
156	156	Yale	0.4335	7	3	0
157	157	Texas Southern	0.4287	6	2	1
158	158	San Diego	0.4268	5	5	0
159	159	UAB	0.4229	3	7	2
160	160	Eastern Kentucky	0.4194	4	5	0
161	162	Marshall	0.4193	5	6	1
162	161	Wyoming	0.4189	3	9	0
163	164	Samford	0.4167	3	7	0
164	163	Holy Cross	0.4152	6	5	0
165	170	Utah State	0.4102	4	8	0
166	165	Fordham	0.4077	5	5	0
167	168	Wagner	0.4039	4	5	1
168	169	California-Davis	0.4033	6	5	0
169	167	Indiana State	0.4011	3	5	1
170	166	Vanderbilt	0.3990	2	10	0
171	178	Middle Tennessee State	0.3937	6	6	0
172	172	Prairie View A&M	0.3883	6	4	0
173	171	Weber State	0.3874	5	5	1
174	173	Georgia State	0.3853	4	3	2
175	175	Sacred Heart	0.3836	4	7	0
176	174	South Dakota	0.3836	3	7	0
177	177	Columbia	0.3801	4	6	0
178	176	Ball State	0.3755	3	7	2
179	182	North Texas	0.3726	3	9	0
180	181	Rice	0.3715	4	8	0
181	179	Florida A&M	0.3710	7	3	1
182	180	North Dakota	0.3679	2	8	0
183	184	Kansas	0.3660	3	9	0
184	185	Bowling Green	0.3655	2	10	0
185	183	Tennessee-Martin	0.3643	5	5	0
186	187	Louisiana-Monroe	0.3602	5	6	1
187	186	Tennessee Tech	0.3563	4	6	0
188	189	Lafayette	0.3550	2	8	1
189	204	San Jose State	0.3539	1	11	1
190	190	Alabama State	0.3500	6	3	0
191	192	Georgetown	0.3472	4	6	1
192	191	Tulane	0.3456	4	8	0
193	193	Western Kentucky	0.3444	1	10	1
194	195	Alcorn State	0.3432	4	6	0
195	194	Illinois State	0.3430	4	5	1
196	196	UNLV	0.3408	2	11	0
197	197	Butler	0.3385	2	7	0
198	199	Colorado State	0.3380	3	9	0
199	198	Campbell	0.3376	2	7	1
200	200	Tennessee State	0.3318	3	7	0
201	205	Marist	0.3316	3	7	1
202	201	Texas State	0.3307	3	6	1
203	188	Florida Atlantic	0.3295	4	8	0
204	206	Louisiana-Lafayette	0.3294	3	9	0
205	202	Southeastern Louisiana	0.3291	2	8	0
206	203	Hampton	0.3286	6	5	0
207	207	Portland State	0.3199	2	9	0
208	208	Arkansas-Pine Bluff	0.3157	4	6	0
209	210	Buffalo	0.3101	2	10	0
210	209	Northern Colorado	0.3055	2	7	1
211	213	Western Carolina	0.3042	2	8	0
212	211	Northwestern State	0.3025	2	6	1
213	212	Norfolk State	0.2986	5	5	0
214	214	Nicholls State	0.2859	2	7	1
215	215	Towson	0.2805	0	10	1
216	219	Citadel	0.2719	2	8	0
217	216	St. Francis (PA)	0.2703	1	10	0
218	218	Eastern Michigan	0.2674	1	10	1
219	217	Gardner-Webb	0.2661	2	6	2
220	221	Morehead State	0.2610	4	6	1
221	220	Eastern Illinois	0.2570	1	9	0
222	222	Presbyterian	0.2523	2	8	0
223	223	Lamar	0.2487	2	6	0
224	224	Southern University	0.2475	2	7	0
225	226	Akron	0.2454	1	9	2
226	228	Princeton	0.2427	0	9	1
227	227	Alabama A&M	0.2426	2	8	0
228	225	Delaware State	0.2423	3	8	0
229	230	Davidson	0.2411	3	7	0
230	231	Cornell	0.2399	2	8	0
231	229	Virginia Military	0.2396	2	8	0
232	232	Bucknell	0.2344	1	10	0
233	233	Memphis	0.2334	1	11	0
234	236	New Mexico State	0.2303	2	10	0
235	234	North Carolina Central	0.2296	1	6	1
236	235	Morgan State	0.2273	3	7	0
237	237	New Mexico	0.2199	1	11	0
238	238	Idaho State	0.2087	0	9	1
239	239	Charleston Southern	0.1995	1	8	0
240	240	Austin Peay	0.1798	1	9	0
241	241	North Carolina A&T	0.1668	1	8	1
242	242	Howard	0.1387	0	10	0
243	243	Savannah State	0.1189	1	8	0
244	244	Valparaiso	0.1137	0	9	0
245	245	Mississippi Valley State	0.1072	0	10	0