2010 WASEAN Team Ratings – Week 10

After hammering Utah 47-7, TCU has somewhat narrowed the gap on Boise State for #2 (from .0118 to .0074). But Boise's win over Hawaii was nearly as impressive. Oregon, Boise and TCU are WAY ahead of everyone else. Any of them could probably lose a game (depending on to who) and still be in the top 3.

For some perspective, after the bowls, last year Alabama finished at .8592 and Texas at #5 was .8450. Through week 10 last year, Texas was at .8772, TCU at .8721, Florida .8698 and Alabama .8423. The teams at the top have been better this year than last. Oregon is at .9040, Boise State .8971 and TCU .8897.

Auburn is creeping up. Chattanooga isn't a bad FCS team (WASEAN has them #24 among that group), so yesterday really was impressive. But subjectively, the only team that is ahead of Auburn that I'd move the Tigers ahead of is Ohio State.

Also, I wouldn't sleep on Georgia @ Auburn next week. WASEAN sees a 35-24 game, so Auburn 1) has to win by that just to maintain their rating, and 2) needs to keep from looking ahead. Georgia is dangerous, they've been a much better team since the Colorado game. There have been bigger upsets. Right now the computer sees Auburn as a 7.5 point dog at Alabama (32-24.5).

Here’s another nifty thing I discovered while figuring those games out . . . for a ballpark point spread you can give the home team 3.5 points and then give the higher rated team 1 point for every .009 they are ahead in rating. So a .836 hosting a .804, would get get 3.5 points for being at home and another 3.6 for rating, giving them a 7.1 point edge. Those are the ratings for Alabama and Auburn, so it works out relatively close. Using this method to figure Georgia @ Auburn would give a 10.9 point spread.

One other thing to note – the top four teams in the FCS (Delaware, William & Mary, Villanova and New Hampshire) are all in the Colonial. JMU, the team that beat Virginia Tech, has lost to 3 of those 4, plays William & Mary this week and is 1-5 in the league.

JMU still sits as the #12 ranked team in the FCS, that’s how good the Colonial is. Even if the VA Tech game had never happened, JMU would be #21 in the FCS. And the Colonial would still be ranked ahead of the WAC and MWC.

Please click the ‘read more’ link to see the rankings.

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2010 WASEAN Conference Ratings – Week 10

The Pac-10’s once massive lead on the SEC has all but evaporated. It was halved again this week, from .006 to .003. There was a point during last night’s games where the SEC was ahead but the Pac-10 managed to stay ahead when all of the games were in the books.

The rest of the pecking order remains the same with the Big XII, Big Ten, ACC and Big East each separated by a few points, but way behind the big two.

Please click the ‘read more’ link to see the ratings.

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