Game Watchability Score – 2010 Week 4

I came up with a method that weighs the quality of teams and closeness of teams equally (with a home field adjustment thrown in). Games will score well if the teams are ranked high and the teams are closely matched.

The list is ranked by the ‘Game Watchability Score’, with the teams and their rankings. Remember it's early, the ratings used for this are based on 2-3 games per team. Still a fun method to look at it objectively. I’ll post these each week.

I’ll explain the methodology below in case you are interested.

Please click the “read more” link to see the scores. The rankings listed do not include games from Thursday/Friday and they combine FBS and FCS.

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2010 WASEAN Team Ratings – Week 3

Finally, the first ratings of the new season. As I said in the conference post, remember it’s early.

Even though it’s early, it’s pretty obvious Alabama is the best team in the country. But after that it is anyone’s game. Note that WASEAN doesn’t see VA Tech’s loss to JMU as a killer for Boise State at all.

A few notes . . .

Wagner and Cornell are not included, since they’ve only played each other, it’s impossible to tell how they compare with everyone else.

Also there were 5 applications of the ‘formulas are not perfect rule’. What this rule does is automatically bump undefeated/untied teams (remember that WASEAN does not count overtime) above the best team they beat. It also drops winless/tieless teams below the worst team they lost to.

Those situations this week are: Ohio State over Miami (FL), Wisconsin over Arizona State, USC over Virginia, Montana below Cal Poly, and Eastern Illinois below Tennessee-Martin.

Please click the ‘read more’ link to see the ratings.

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2010 WASEAN Conference Ratings – Week 3

Here we go, the first look at Conference Ratings for 2010! Just remember, it’s early. While a pecking order has been established, things move fast this early in the season.

Right now the Pac-10 and the ACC are off to the early lead, followed closely by the SEC and Big Ten. The Big East and Big 12 bring up the rear for the BCS conferences.

Note that two FCS conferences are ahead of the MWC, MAC, C-USA and the Sun Belt. The gap between FBS and FCS is much closer than most think.

To see the rankings, please click the “read more” link.

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Final 2009 Conference Ratings

Here are the final 2009 Conference Ratings. Note just how good the Colonial is. All FCS teams are not alike.

The average Colonial team was about as good as SMU, who went 8-3-2 (WASEAN doesn’t count overtime) playing in Conference USA.

The average FCS team was about as good as Toledo, who went 5-7 in the MAC. The FCS is not nearly as bad as most think.

Please click the "read more" link to see the rankings.

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Final 2009 WASEAN Ratings

Just realized I never posted the final ratings for 2009. I did post them along the sidebar, but never the full list. My apologies.

The first 2010 rankings will be out Sunday morning, but here’s a chance to reflect on 2009 . . .

Please click the “read more” link to see the projections.

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WASEAN Projects the Bowls

Time to get the projections for the bowls on record . . . here’s how WASEAN sees things shaking out. Remember, if WASEAN projects a tie, I don’t break it. I just show the game as going to OT, call it a ‘pick-em’. Let’s just say it looks like the bowl organizers did a good job of matching up teams that are close . . .

Please click the “read more” link to see the projections.

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Final Regular Season WASEAN Ratings

Not too much to say this week, as there were only 4 D-I games (Army/Navy, the FCS Semis and the SWAC Championship), and all went pretty much as expected. So here are the final 2009 regular season ratings, the only games left are the FCS Championship Game and the bowls.

I’ll post projections for the bowls this week.

Please click the ‘read more’ link for the ratings. Note that instead of “Last Week”, I have “Week 13” since nearly everyone is the same as they were last week . . .

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2009 Bowls, Using Merit to Determine Placement

While almost all bowls are filled by contracts between the games and the conferences, the order within the conference that bowls use to select teams is not determined by merit. It’s determined by a mix of merit, TV appeal, travelability (new word?) of teams and ‘stories’, like a coach or player’s last game.

This doesn’t seem very fair. What would the bowl matchups look like if they were forced to take the best available team? How do you determine the best available team?

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2009 BCS Bowls According to WASEAN

Selection Sunday kicks off at 8 p.m. EST Sunday. What would the bowls look like WASEAN were used to pick who goes where? WASEAN doesn’t care about how well teams travel. It would assume that each bowl selects the best available team it is allowed to take.

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2009 WASEAN Ratings, Week 14

The SEC Championship was a bust, but the rest of Championship Weekend was one of the best couple of days of college football that I can remember.

The defacto Pac 10 championship game got the weekend off to a great start Thursday night as Oregon won a very entertaining 37-33 match-up in the 2009 edition of The Civil War. The #9 Ducks converted a couple of 4th downs late and is headed to Pasadena to take on #12 Ohio State New Year’s Day.

Saturday Cincinnati and Pitt got the day off to a great start with one of the most entertaining games of the season. The #7 Bearcats found themselves down 21 points with an undefeated season in jeopardy, but came from behind and won the game 45-44. The #14 Panthers missed a PAT after a mishandled snap with 1:36 to go gave them a 44-38 lead. Cincy finished unbeaten and will return to the BCS, most likely against Florida in the Sugar Bowl.

Boise State was not as impressive as expected in a 42-7 win over #115 New Mexico State. This caused this to slip behind Virginia Tech to #6. Tech’s opponents (Alabama & Georgia Tech) had a great weekend.

#2 Alabama got of a to a great start and never let Florida come up for air, leading start to finish in a 32-13 rout. Florida got the game within 12-10 in the 2nd quarter, but the Tide outscored them 20-3 the rest of the way. The Gators dropped from #1 to #4 with the loss.

Finally the night games . . . first the ACC. Georgia Tech blew a 33-20 lead as Clemson went up 34-33 with 6:11 remaining. But the #10 Yellow Jackets were able to put together a 13-play, 86-yard drive that consumed 4:45 to win the conference, spoiling CJ Spillers 20-carry, 233-yard, 4-TD performance.

In the Big 12 Championship, 14-point underdog Nebraska gave Texas everything they could handle. Despite managing just 106 yards of offense, the Cornhuskers, with the help of 3 interceptions, held a 12-10 lead with 1:44 to play. However, an out of bounds kickoff gave the Longhorns the ball on the 40 to start. A horse-collar tackle gave the drive a 15-yard boost. And with 1 second left Hunter Lawrence hit the game-winning 46-yard field goal.

Texas moves back into the #1 spot despite barely beating Nebraska. Their actual rating dropped from .8699 to .8617, but Florida dropped much further after getting blown out by Alabama. Alabama jumped from .8530 to .8583, and from #4 to #2, but it wasn’t quite enough to catch Texas.

TCU remains #3, Clemson’s loss didn’t help, as their rating dipped slightly from .8580 to .8557. The Army/Navy game will actually impact who finishes #3 or #4, as TCU needs a 33-20 (or better) win from Navy to maintain is razor-thin lead over Florida.

To see the ratings, please click the ‘read more’ link.

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2009 WASEAN Conference Ratings, Week 14

With only the Army/Navy game not played, the SEC has wrapped up the regular season as the top conference in the land. The ACC/Big 12/Big East follow behind very closely, with the Pac 10 and Big 10 bringing up the rear of the BCS conferences.

The Colonial had half of the Elite 8 and half of the Final Four in the FCS and placed ahead of 4 FBS conferences. I would really like to see the Ivy league in the FCS playoffs at some point as well, as WASEAN sees it as the second best FCS conference.

Please click the ‘read more’ link to see the ratings.

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Championship Saturday Projections

Big Day coming up Saturday! Here are the WASEAN projections. Remember they just assume each team will play as they have on average all season, doesn’t account for injuries, suspensions, etc..

Conference USA: Houston 34 @ East Carolina 34, OT
Big East: Cincinnati 30 @ Pittsburgh 31
SEC: Florida 22 vs. Alabama 20
ACC: Georgia Tech 28 vs. Clemson 28, OT
Big 12: Texas 30 vs. Nebraska 17

Others:
West Virginia 23 @ Rutgers 24
Fresno State 34 @ Illinois 28
San Jose State 14 @ Louisiana Tech 35
New Mexico State 6 @ Boise State 52
Arizona 24 @ USC 27
California 28 @ Washington 28, OT
Florida Atlantic 31 @ Florida International 34
South Florida 20 @ Connecticut 28
Wisconsin 33 @ Hawaii 24

FCS Playoffs:
William & Mary 23 @ Southern Illinois 23, OT
Stephen F. Austin 23 @ Montana 31
New Hampshire 17 @ Villanova 31
Appalachian State 20 @ Richmond 31

FCS non-playoffs:
Southern University 24 @ Texas Southern 27

I was too busy to get to this earlier, but these would have been the picks:
Pac 10: Oregon State 26 @ Oregon 37
MAC: Ohio 24 vs. Central Michigan 33
Arkansas State 30, Western Kentucky 21

2009 WASEAN Ratings, Week 13

Rivalry week brings a new #1 to the WASEAN ratings. Texas had been on top since a 41-7 shellacking of Missouri in week 8. But a tight 49-39 game with Texas A&M, coupled with Florida’s 37-10 blowout of Florida State was enough to move the Gators into the top spot.

Alabama, despite a close call at Auburn, closed the gap on TCU, but remains #4. The Horned Frogs suffered more because of Clemson’s loss to South Carolina than for anything they did, as they beat New Mexico 51-10 as expected.

Boise held onto the #5 spot, Virginia Tech remains ahead of unbeaten Cincinnati, who looks less impressive every week. Oklahoma rolled Oklahoma State 27-0, most likely knocking the Cowboys from BCS consideration.

Please click the 'read more' link to see the ratings.

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2009 WASEAN Conference Ratings, Week 13

It was a rough week for the #2 ACC, as both of their championship game teams lost to middle of the pack SEC teams. But the Big East had an even tougher week with South Florida getting blown out by Miami and Cincinnati only beating 3-8 Illinois 49-36. That allowed the Big 12 to sneak into the 3 spot. While the SEC is uncatchable, the #2 ranking is wide open heading into bowl season, with the ACC, Big 12 and Big East separated by just .006.

Please click the ‘read more’ link to see the ratings.

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2009 FCS Playoffs, Bracket and First Round Predictions

The FCS playoff bracket has been announced! Here's the bracket, with the WASEAN Ratings and records (which don't include OT or D-II opponents) as well. The top 4 seeds are #16 Montana, #1 Villanova, #6 Southern Illinois and #2 Richmond. All will get to host second round games if they win their opener.

#9 South Dakota State (8-3) @ #16 Montana (9-0-1)
#21 Eastern Washington (7-3) @ #25 Stephen F. Austin (8-2)

#5 Elon (9-2) @ #2 Richmond (10-1)
#12 South Carolina State (10-1) @ #10 Appalachian State (8-2-1)

#18 Holy Cross (9-2) @ #1 Villanova (10-1)
#11 New Hampshire (9-2) @ #27 McNeese State (8-2)

#38 Eastern Illinois (8-3) @ #6 Southern Illinois (9-1)
#22 Weber State (7-4) @ #3 William & Mary (9-2)

Here are the WASEAN predicted scores for the first round:

Montana 24, South Dakota State 24, OT
Stephen F. Austin 30, Eastern Washington 27

Richmond 27, Elon 20
Appalachian State 28, South Carolina State 24

Villanova 34, Holy Cross 14
New Hampshire 30, McNeese State 28

Southern Illinois 31, Eastern Illinois 14
William & Mary 31, Weber State 16

2009 WASEAN Ratings, Week 12

I posted on the collegebcs.com members mailing list this week that this was a terrible slate of games, and that it would be a good weekend to get some wife-points, that there wasn't much going on.

For the most part, that was an accurate assessment; there was little movement at the top of the ratings. The big dogs blew out the teams they were supposed to blow out. Florida did nudge ahead of TCU, by beating their patsy worse than TCU beat theirs. But overall, it was pretty uneventful, in terms of the national championship picture.

There were some great games though. UConn and Notre Dame went to OT. So did Oregon and Arizona. Mississippi edged LSU in a game that literally came down to the last second. So even a bad week provided plenty that was worth watching.

Next week has some huge games with BCS implications, with top teams going on the road. Thanksgiving night #1 Texas goes to Texas A&M. Friday #4 Alabama will be at #32 Auburn and #11 Pitt goes to Morgantown to face #29 West Virginia. #5 Boise State is at home Friday night, but they get a test as #51 Nevada comes to town. The Wolf Pack is playing very well over their last 4 games, they've risen 42 spots in the rankings.

Saturday, #26 Oklahoma State has a potential BCS at-large berth on the line in Norman vs. #12 Oklahoma. #2 Florida hosts a #40 Florida State team that isn't as bad as everyone thinks they are.

All of that should keep you busy over the holiday weekend. Please click the 'read more' link to see the ratings.

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2009 WASEAN Confernce Ratings, Week 12

No big inter-conference games this week to shake up the ratings here, I think we're pretty much set with the rankings at this point. The SEC is clearly the top dog, followed by the ACC. The ACC has 3 of the top 9 teams (#6, #8, #9) and two others in the top 25.

WASEAN does not share the Pac 10 love that other systems have. Only Oregon is in the top 20 (#10) with two others in the FBS top 25 (#22 & #25).

The Colonial pulled off an amazing feat, finishing with top three teams in the FCS. It wasn't just a top heavy league, as four others finished in the top 25.

Please click the 'read more' link to see the ratings.

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What if WASEAN were used for the BCS Standings?

I was wondering what the BCS bowl set up would be if WASEAN were used to determine the matchups.

What I'll do is use the BCS rules, but my ratings to determine who stays and goes. I'll use WASEAN to project the winners of any relevant remaining games as well.

Pertinent rules are:

1) No team can get a BCS at large berth with fewer than 9 wins or a ranking lower than #14.

2) No more than two teams can get a BCS bid from any conference.

3) The best non-BCS conference champion gets an automatic berth, as long as they are ranked in the top 12, or the top 16 if they are ahead of a BCS league champion. Other non-BCS conference champions that meet the ranking requirements of this rule are eligible to be selected for an at large berth.
4) Notre Dame is guaranteed a bid if they finish in the top 8.

5) The #3 team gets an automatic bid if they are from a BCS league.

6) The #4 team gets an automatic bid if they are from a BCS league and the #3 team already gets an automatic bid for winning their league, or qualifying under rule #3.

I guess #4 isn't really relevant after all . . .

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2009 WASEAN ratings, week 11

Week 11 featured some great games, but there wasn't a whole lot of movement at the top.

The game of the day saw Ohio State clinch a berth in the Rose Bowl with an overtime win over much maligned Iowa, playing with their backup QB, James Vandenberg. He was much improved this week, but still threw 3 interceptions. Iowa fans will be wondering what might have been, as there is little doubt in my mind that with Rick Stanzi they'd be sitting at 11-0 and smelling the Roses.

We can't forget though, Ohio State deserves credit for overcoming a couple of tough losses to win the Big 10. I've got them ranked #14 in the FBS, which is down for them, but they are still better than they generally have been getting credit for. Iowa sits at #29, but a lot of that is the Northwestern loss. If they'd won that game 30-17, as opposed to losing 17-10, they be #20 right now.

The top 4 remain unchanged, with Texas, TCU, Florida and Alabama. Texas put a little bit more distance between themselves and the pack with a 47-14 victory at Baylor. TCU was up 35-7 just 19 minutes into the game and throttled Utah, 55-28. Florida has their hands full against South Carolina, but still managed a 24-14 road victory. Alabama started slow but didn't have much trouble with Mississippi State, winning 31-3.

Boise State moves up a spot to #5 off of another blowout, this time 63-25 vs. Idaho. Last week's #6 Cincinnati survived another home game against a decent but not great Big East opponent, #32 (FBS) West Virginia, winning 24-21.

Meanwhile last week's #7 Oklahoma destroyed Texas A&M, 65-10, to move past Cincinnati. We discussed Oklahoma last week, and I know it seems strange seeing a 6-4 team ahead of a good 10-0 team - this Cincinnati squad is the real deal, this isn't Hawaii from a couple of years ago. But to rehash quickly, Oklahoma's 4 losses are by a combined 12 points against teams ranked #1, #13, #16 and  #36 in the FBS, and all were on the road or neutral fields. This not your everyday 6-4 team. In their 6 wins they've outscored their opponents 284-60 (47-10 on average).

EDIT: Wouldn't it figure, East Carolina's 44-17 blowout at Tulsa Sunday night had enough trickle down effect to move Cincinnati back in front of Oklahoma. Every game counts!

Combine this with the fact that Cincinnati does not have a win over a currently ranked team and it's not that implausible that Oklahoma is a whisker ahead .8162 to .8152. Cincinnati's best wins are over #27 UConn, #30 Oregon State, #32 West Virginia and #37 Rutgers. They buried Rutgers, 47-15, but the other 3 games were decided by 2, 10 and 3 points.

The ACC rounds out the top 10. Virginia Tech holds the #8 spot with a 36-9 victory at Maryland. The two likely championship game participants, #9 Georgia Tech and #10 Clemson both scored impressive wins Saturday. The Yellow Jackets jumped over Clemson, Pitt and Oregon after a 49-10 blowout of Duke.

Click 'read more' for the rankings, they'll be updated after Sunday's East Carolina/Tulsa game.

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2009 WASEAN conference ratings, week 11

Not much shake up in the conference ratings this week, they've pretty much stabilized at this point. There are a few big intra-conference games coming up, like Florida/Florida State, South Carolina/Clemson, Georgia Tech/Georgia, so maybe we'll see a little movement then.

There's been some talk of Boise State, Fresno State and Nevada joining the WAC. The speculation is that this would lead to the MWC getting an automatic BCS bid. So this week, I'll post the conference ratings, and below those, I'll post the conference ratings as if this realignment were already in place.

Please click 'read more' to see the ratings.

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