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We finally have enough data to post some meaningful rankings.
I don’t have very much time for analysis this week, but I’ll note that the rankings through this point last season had 89% correlation with the final regular season rankings – so we do know a lot about these teams at this point.
Note these ratings do not include games of Thursday October 6, 2011.
I realize I’m about a month late here; but hey, this isn’t my full-time job!
Auburn won the national championship, and for that I congratulate them. The Tigers had a great season. I don’t think they were the best team in the country though - when looking at the entire season.
That doesn’t mean they didn’t deserve the championship, the best team doesn’t always win. At the end of the year, they probably were the best team, or at least as good as anyone else. But they were nothing special for the first half of the season, need I remind you of their OT game with Clemson, or their 37-34 nail-biter with Kentucky?
That being said, I am going to rework the ratings in the off-season, so they give more of a feel for who had the best season, as opposed to who would win if we played every game 1000 times. The idea is to look at a team’s opponents and the scores of the games, then look at the odds that a team of a certain quality would have the team’s record against that schedule. It’s something similar to what Bill James did in his early Abstracts when rating pitchers.
Also note who the only team undefeated in regulation was this year. That was TCU.
Please click the ‘read more’ link to see the complete ratings and have a great off-season! Also note that for the FCS teams, the regular season rank is where the team was ranked after week 12 of the season, while for the FBS teams it’s where they were ranked after week 15.
Boise State finishes the year on top despite their overtime loss at Nevada. Would I rank them number 1, personally? No. I’d rank them fourth or fifth. Do I think they could be justified as no worse than even money on a neutral field with any team in the country? I do think that. WASEAN, as it’s designed right now measures a team’s strength – not how good their season necessarily was.
I’m working on that though. I’m working on a methodology for a separate rating that would measure the quality of the team’s season. It will still adjust for schedule strength. But it will also make the ratings look a little more ‘normal’.
The idea is to figure WASEAN as I currently do, but then add a step that will look at the team’s schedule and emphasize wins and losses (as opposed to points scored and allowed) more. Hopefully I can get that done in the next couple of weeks.
Without further adieu, here are the final regular season rankings. Well, almost final. I’ll add in the Army-Navy game next week (as well as the elite 8 of the FCS playoffs).
| RK | LW | Team | WASEAN | RW | RL | RT |
| 1 | 1 | Boise State | 0.8857 | 11 | 0 | 1 |
| 2 | 2 | Oregon | 0.8823 | 12 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | 3 | TCU | 0.8563 | 12 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | 4 | Stanford | 0.8442 | 11 | 1 | 0 |
| 5 | 5 | Ohio State | 0.8427 | 11 | 1 | 0 |
| 6 | 6 | Alabama | 0.8337 | 9 | 3 | 0 |
| 7 | 7 | Auburn | 0.8151 | 12 | 0 | 1 |
| 8 | 8 | Virginia Tech | 0.7890 | 11 | 2 | 0 |
| 9 | 9 | Arkansas | 0.7829 | 9 | 2 | 1 |
| 10 | 11 | Wisconsin | 0.7727 | 11 | 1 | 0 |
| 11 | 13 | Oklahoma | 0.7715 | 11 | 2 | 0 |
| 12 | 12 | Missouri | 0.7712 | 10 | 2 | 0 |
| 13 | 14 | LSU | 0.7649 | 10 | 2 | 0 |
| 14 | 16 | Oklahoma State | 0.7589 | 10 | 2 | 0 |
| 15 | 19 | Nevada | 0.7554 | 11 | 1 | 1 |
| 16 | 15 | Florida State | 0.7551 | 9 | 4 | 0 |
| 17 | 18 | Texas A&M | 0.7456 | 9 | 3 | 0 |
| 18 | 17 | Nebraska | 0.7453 | 9 | 3 | 1 |
| 19 | 20 | Delaware | 0.7436 | 9 | 1 | 1 |
| 20 | 10 | South Carolina | 0.7411 | 9 | 4 | 0 |
| 21 | 21 | North Carolina State | 0.7381 | 8 | 3 | 1 |
| 22 | 22 | West Virginia | 0.7346 | 8 | 2 | 2 |
| 23 | 23 | Iowa | 0.7277 | 7 | 5 | 0 |
| 24 | 26 | Arizona State | 0.7250 | 5 | 6 | 1 |
| 25 | 24 | Arizona | 0.7234 | 7 | 4 | 1 |
| 26 | 25 | Georgia | 0.7183 | 6 | 5 | 1 |
| 27 | 27 | Miami (FL) | 0.7134 | 7 | 4 | 1 |
| 28 | 36 | Villanova | 0.7106 | 7 | 4 | 1 |
| 29 | 31 | Hawaii | 0.7066 | 10 | 3 | 0 |
| 30 | 29 | Florida | 0.7015 | 6 | 5 | 1 |
| 31 | 34 | Utah | 0.6983 | 9 | 2 | 1 |
| 32 | 33 | Mississippi State | 0.6963 | 8 | 3 | 1 |
| 33 | 37 | USC | 0.6891 | 8 | 5 | 0 |
| 34 | 35 | Michigan State | 0.6890 | 10 | 1 | 1 |
| 35 | 32 | Illinois | 0.6855 | 6 | 5 | 1 |
| 36 | 41 | Pittsburgh | 0.6853 | 7 | 4 | 1 |
| 37 | 28 | Northern Illinois | 0.6800 | 10 | 3 | 0 |
| 38 | 38 | Notre Dame | 0.6790 | 7 | 4 | 1 |
| 39 | 40 | UCF | 0.6757 | 10 | 3 | 0 |
| 40 | 30 | William & Mary | 0.6743 | 8 | 4 | 0 |
| 41 | 39 | Clemson | 0.6737 | 6 | 5 | 1 |
| 42 | 45 | New Hampshire | 0.6703 | 8 | 3 | 1 |
| 43 | 42 | Maryland | 0.6667 | 8 | 4 | 0 |
| 44 | 49 | Appalachian State | 0.6644 | 10 | 1 | 1 |
| 45 | 43 | Oregon State | 0.6631 | 5 | 6 | 1 |
| 46 | 44 | Air Force | 0.6554 | 8 | 4 | 0 |
| 47 | 47 | San Diego State | 0.6514 | 8 | 4 | 0 |
| 48 | 46 | North Carolina | 0.6509 | 7 | 5 | 0 |
| 49 | 48 | California | 0.6461 | 5 | 7 | 0 |
| 50 | 61 | Georgia Southern | 0.6362 | 8 | 4 | 1 |
| 51 | 51 | Navy | 0.6356 | 8 | 3 | 0 |
| 52 | 52 | Louisville | 0.6294 | 6 | 5 | 1 |
| 53 | 54 | Baylor | 0.6281 | 7 | 5 | 0 |
| 54 | 55 | Tulsa | 0.6275 | 9 | 3 | 0 |
| 55 | 53 | Penn State | 0.6264 | 7 | 5 | 0 |
| 56 | 56 | Kansas State | 0.6259 | 7 | 5 | 0 |
| 57 | 59 | Pennsylvania | 0.6141 | 8 | 1 | 1 |
| 58 | 57 | Michigan | 0.6140 | 6 | 5 | 1 |
| 59 | 58 | Jacksonville | 0.6129 | 9 | 1 | 0 |
| 60 | 64 | Connecticut | 0.6126 | 7 | 4 | 1 |
| 61 | 68 | Wofford | 0.6109 | 9 | 2 | 0 |
| 62 | 60 | Tennessee | 0.6045 | 5 | 6 | 1 |
| 63 | 50 | Stephen F. Austin | 0.6023 | 9 | 3 | 0 |
| 64 | 69 | James Madison | 0.5991 | 6 | 4 | 1 |
| 65 | 67 | Georgia Tech | 0.5990 | 6 | 6 | 0 |
| 66 | 65 | Southern Miss | 0.5969 | 8 | 3 | 1 |
| 67 | 66 | Kentucky | 0.5965 | 6 | 6 | 0 |
| 68 | 62 | South Florida | 0.5929 | 5 | 5 | 2 |
| 69 | 70 | Texas Tech | 0.5899 | 7 | 5 | 0 |
| 70 | 72 | Syracuse | 0.5843 | 7 | 5 | 0 |
| 71 | 71 | Boston College | 0.5833 | 7 | 5 | 0 |
| 72 | 63 | Western Illinois | 0.5833 | 8 | 5 | 0 |
| 73 | 73 | Temple | 0.5808 | 7 | 4 | 1 |
| 74 | 74 | Brigham Young | 0.5779 | 6 | 6 | 0 |
| 75 | 77 | Robert Morris | 0.5702 | 8 | 3 | 0 |
| 76 | 83 | Fresno State | 0.5681 | 8 | 4 | 0 |
| 77 | 76 | Western Michigan | 0.5651 | 6 | 6 | 0 |
| 78 | 78 | Texas | 0.5649 | 5 | 7 | 0 |
| 79 | 79 | Liberty | 0.5631 | 8 | 3 | 0 |
| 80 | 80 | Massachusetts | 0.5620 | 6 | 5 | 0 |
| 81 | 82 | Lehigh | 0.5580 | 10 | 3 | 0 |
| 82 | 81 | Sacramento State | 0.5565 | 5 | 4 | 1 |
| 83 | 93 | North Dakota State | 0.5560 | 9 | 4 | 0 |
| 84 | 75 | Cincinnati | 0.5556 | 4 | 8 | 0 |
| 85 | 85 | Washington | 0.5552 | 5 | 6 | 1 |
| 86 | 87 | Eastern Washington | 0.5550 | 9 | 2 | 0 |
| 87 | 84 | Harvard | 0.5509 | 7 | 3 | 0 |
| 88 | 86 | Houston | 0.5467 | 5 | 7 | 0 |
| 89 | 88 | Mississippi | 0.5448 | 4 | 7 | 1 |
| 90 | 98 | Chattanooga | 0.5434 | 6 | 5 | 0 |
| 91 | 89 | Southern Methodist | 0.5390 | 6 | 6 | 1 |
| 92 | 103 | Elon | 0.5386 | 5 | 4 | 1 |
| 93 | 101 | Furman | 0.5371 | 5 | 6 | 0 |
| 94 | 95 | Ohio | 0.5363 | 8 | 4 | 0 |
| 95 | 90 | Toledo | 0.5362 | 8 | 4 | 0 |
| 96 | 91 | South Alabama | 0.5350 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| 97 | 92 | Northwestern | 0.5341 | 7 | 5 | 0 |
| 98 | 96 | Northern Arizona | 0.5318 | 5 | 5 | 0 |
| 99 | 102 | Army | 0.5316 | 6 | 4 | 1 |
| 100 | 94 | Northern Iowa | 0.5311 | 7 | 4 | 1 |
| 101 | 106 | Southern Utah | 0.5258 | 5 | 5 | 0 |
| 102 | 100 | Louisiana Tech | 0.5258 | 5 | 7 | 0 |
| 103 | 97 | Jacksonville State | 0.5255 | 7 | 2 | 2 |
| 104 | 105 | South Dakota State | 0.5243 | 5 | 6 | 0 |
| 105 | 108 | Colorado | 0.5219 | 5 | 7 | 0 |
| 106 | 107 | Iowa State | 0.5209 | 5 | 6 | 1 |
| 107 | 109 | Virginia | 0.5205 | 4 | 8 | 0 |
| 108 | 99 | Idaho | 0.5155 | 5 | 7 | 1 |
| 109 | 104 | UCLA | 0.5148 | 4 | 8 | 0 |
| 110 | 111 | Colgate | 0.5137 | 7 | 4 | 0 |
| 111 | 110 | Old Dominion | 0.5126 | 8 | 3 | 0 |
| 112 | 112 | East Carolina | 0.5122 | 5 | 5 | 2 |
| 113 | 113 | Dayton | 0.5114 | 8 | 1 | 1 |
| 114 | 116 | South Carolina State | 0.5040 | 8 | 3 | 0 |
| 115 | 118 | Central Michigan | 0.5036 | 3 | 8 | 1 |
| 116 | 139 | Troy | 0.4965 | 7 | 5 | 0 |
| 117 | 115 | Florida International | 0.4929 | 5 | 6 | 1 |
| 118 | 119 | Dartmouth | 0.4881 | 6 | 3 | 1 |
| 119 | 114 | Bethune-Cookman | 0.4858 | 9 | 2 | 0 |
| 120 | 120 | Stony Brook | 0.4847 | 5 | 4 | 1 |
| 121 | 121 | Rutgers | 0.4824 | 3 | 8 | 1 |
| 122 | 123 | Brown | 0.4809 | 5 | 3 | 2 |
| 123 | 127 | Coastal Carolina | 0.4773 | 5 | 5 | 2 |
| 124 | 128 | Arkansas State | 0.4760 | 4 | 7 | 1 |
| 125 | 125 | Jackson State | 0.4760 | 7 | 2 | 0 |
| 126 | 122 | Sam Houston State | 0.4753 | 6 | 4 | 1 |
| 127 | 148 | Miami (OH) | 0.4750 | 9 | 4 | 0 |
| 128 | 126 | Minnesota | 0.4745 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| 129 | 133 | Richmond | 0.4740 | 4 | 5 | 2 |
| 130 | 117 | Montana State | 0.4736 | 6 | 3 | 2 |
| 131 | 132 | Bryant | 0.4711 | 5 | 4 | 0 |
| 132 | 129 | Drake | 0.4701 | 6 | 4 | 0 |
| 133 | 134 | Duke | 0.4698 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| 134 | 136 | Maine | 0.4686 | 3 | 7 | 1 |
| 135 | 130 | Purdue | 0.4676 | 4 | 7 | 1 |
| 136 | 140 | Rhode Island | 0.4669 | 4 | 6 | 1 |
| 137 | 131 | Montana | 0.4662 | 6 | 4 | 0 |
| 138 | 137 | Grambling State | 0.4649 | 8 | 1 | 1 |
| 139 | 142 | Kent State | 0.4616 | 5 | 7 | 0 |
| 140 | 141 | Indiana | 0.4614 | 4 | 7 | 1 |
| 141 | 124 | Southeast Missouri State | 0.4610 | 8 | 3 | 0 |
| 142 | 138 | Murray State | 0.4610 | 6 | 5 | 0 |
| 143 | 135 | Central Arkansas | 0.4609 | 6 | 4 | 0 |
| 144 | 144 | Missouri State | 0.4579 | 5 | 4 | 2 |
| 145 | 145 | Youngstown State | 0.4570 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| 146 | 143 | Southern Illinois | 0.4562 | 3 | 6 | 1 |
| 147 | 146 | Cal Poly | 0.4561 | 6 | 4 | 0 |
| 148 | 150 | Duquesne | 0.4485 | 7 | 4 | 0 |
| 149 | 149 | Albany | 0.4479 | 6 | 4 | 1 |
| 150 | 147 | Washington State | 0.4460 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| 151 | 152 | Central Connecticut State | 0.4449 | 5 | 3 | 2 |
| 152 | 153 | Monmouth | 0.4402 | 3 | 7 | 1 |
| 153 | 151 | McNeese State | 0.4396 | 6 | 5 | 0 |
| 154 | 155 | UTEP | 0.4376 | 6 | 6 | 0 |
| 155 | 154 | Wake Forest | 0.4370 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| 156 | 156 | Yale | 0.4335 | 7 | 3 | 0 |
| 157 | 157 | Texas Southern | 0.4287 | 6 | 2 | 1 |
| 158 | 158 | San Diego | 0.4268 | 5 | 5 | 0 |
| 159 | 159 | UAB | 0.4229 | 3 | 7 | 2 |
| 160 | 160 | Eastern Kentucky | 0.4194 | 4 | 5 | 0 |
| 161 | 162 | Marshall | 0.4193 | 5 | 6 | 1 |
| 162 | 161 | Wyoming | 0.4189 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| 163 | 164 | Samford | 0.4167 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| 164 | 163 | Holy Cross | 0.4152 | 6 | 5 | 0 |
| 165 | 170 | Utah State | 0.4102 | 4 | 8 | 0 |
| 166 | 165 | Fordham | 0.4077 | 5 | 5 | 0 |
| 167 | 168 | Wagner | 0.4039 | 4 | 5 | 1 |
| 168 | 169 | California-Davis | 0.4033 | 6 | 5 | 0 |
| 169 | 167 | Indiana State | 0.4011 | 3 | 5 | 1 |
| 170 | 166 | Vanderbilt | 0.3990 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| 171 | 178 | Middle Tennessee State | 0.3937 | 6 | 6 | 0 |
| 172 | 172 | Prairie View A&M | 0.3883 | 6 | 4 | 0 |
| 173 | 171 | Weber State | 0.3874 | 5 | 5 | 1 |
| 174 | 173 | Georgia State | 0.3853 | 4 | 3 | 2 |
| 175 | 175 | Sacred Heart | 0.3836 | 4 | 7 | 0 |
| 176 | 174 | South Dakota | 0.3836 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| 177 | 177 | Columbia | 0.3801 | 4 | 6 | 0 |
| 178 | 176 | Ball State | 0.3755 | 3 | 7 | 2 |
| 179 | 182 | North Texas | 0.3726 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| 180 | 181 | Rice | 0.3715 | 4 | 8 | 0 |
| 181 | 179 | Florida A&M | 0.3710 | 7 | 3 | 1 |
| 182 | 180 | North Dakota | 0.3679 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| 183 | 184 | Kansas | 0.3660 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| 184 | 185 | Bowling Green | 0.3655 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| 185 | 183 | Tennessee-Martin | 0.3643 | 5 | 5 | 0 |
| 186 | 187 | Louisiana-Monroe | 0.3602 | 5 | 6 | 1 |
| 187 | 186 | Tennessee Tech | 0.3563 | 4 | 6 | 0 |
| 188 | 189 | Lafayette | 0.3550 | 2 | 8 | 1 |
| 189 | 204 | San Jose State | 0.3539 | 1 | 11 | 1 |
| 190 | 190 | Alabama State | 0.3500 | 6 | 3 | 0 |
| 191 | 192 | Georgetown | 0.3472 | 4 | 6 | 1 |
| 192 | 191 | Tulane | 0.3456 | 4 | 8 | 0 |
| 193 | 193 | Western Kentucky | 0.3444 | 1 | 10 | 1 |
| 194 | 195 | Alcorn State | 0.3432 | 4 | 6 | 0 |
| 195 | 194 | Illinois State | 0.3430 | 4 | 5 | 1 |
| 196 | 196 | UNLV | 0.3408 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| 197 | 197 | Butler | 0.3385 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| 198 | 199 | Colorado State | 0.3380 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| 199 | 198 | Campbell | 0.3376 | 2 | 7 | 1 |
| 200 | 200 | Tennessee State | 0.3318 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| 201 | 205 | Marist | 0.3316 | 3 | 7 | 1 |
| 202 | 201 | Texas State | 0.3307 | 3 | 6 | 1 |
| 203 | 188 | Florida Atlantic | 0.3295 | 4 | 8 | 0 |
| 204 | 206 | Louisiana-Lafayette | 0.3294 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| 205 | 202 | Southeastern Louisiana | 0.3291 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| 206 | 203 | Hampton | 0.3286 | 6 | 5 | 0 |
| 207 | 207 | Portland State | 0.3199 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| 208 | 208 | Arkansas-Pine Bluff | 0.3157 | 4 | 6 | 0 |
| 209 | 210 | Buffalo | 0.3101 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| 210 | 209 | Northern Colorado | 0.3055 | 2 | 7 | 1 |
| 211 | 213 | Western Carolina | 0.3042 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| 212 | 211 | Northwestern State | 0.3025 | 2 | 6 | 1 |
| 213 | 212 | Norfolk State | 0.2986 | 5 | 5 | 0 |
| 214 | 214 | Nicholls State | 0.2859 | 2 | 7 | 1 |
| 215 | 215 | Towson | 0.2805 | 0 | 10 | 1 |
| 216 | 219 | Citadel | 0.2719 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| 217 | 216 | St. Francis (PA) | 0.2703 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| 218 | 218 | Eastern Michigan | 0.2674 | 1 | 10 | 1 |
| 219 | 217 | Gardner-Webb | 0.2661 | 2 | 6 | 2 |
| 220 | 221 | Morehead State | 0.2610 | 4 | 6 | 1 |
| 221 | 220 | Eastern Illinois | 0.2570 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| 222 | 222 | Presbyterian | 0.2523 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| 223 | 223 | Lamar | 0.2487 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| 224 | 224 | Southern University | 0.2475 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| 225 | 226 | Akron | 0.2454 | 1 | 9 | 2 |
| 226 | 228 | Princeton | 0.2427 | 0 | 9 | 1 |
| 227 | 227 | Alabama A&M | 0.2426 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| 228 | 225 | Delaware State | 0.2423 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| 229 | 230 | Davidson | 0.2411 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| 230 | 231 | Cornell | 0.2399 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| 231 | 229 | Virginia Military | 0.2396 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| 232 | 232 | Bucknell | 0.2344 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| 233 | 233 | Memphis | 0.2334 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| 234 | 236 | New Mexico State | 0.2303 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| 235 | 234 | North Carolina Central | 0.2296 | 1 | 6 | 1 |
| 236 | 235 | Morgan State | 0.2273 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| 237 | 237 | New Mexico | 0.2199 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| 238 | 238 | Idaho State | 0.2087 | 0 | 9 | 1 |
| 239 | 239 | Charleston Southern | 0.1995 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| 240 | 240 | Austin Peay | 0.1798 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| 241 | 241 | North Carolina A&T | 0.1668 | 1 | 8 | 1 |
| 242 | 242 | Howard | 0.1387 | 0 | 10 | 0 |
| 243 | 243 | Savannah State | 0.1189 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| 244 | 244 | Valparaiso | 0.1137 | 0 | 9 | 0 |
| 245 | 245 | Mississippi Valley State | 0.1072 | 0 | 10 | 0 |
