2010 WASEAN Team Ratings – Week 11

TCU had a very rough week. Not only did they struggle with, and barely beat #57 San Diego State, 40-35; but Utah was blown out at #51 Notre Dame, taking a lot of the luster off of last week’s 47-7 win. TCU’s overall rating plunged from .8897 to .8572. It’s still good for 3rd place, but they are now much closer to pack running 4-6 (Ohio State, Alabama & Stanford) than they are to #2 Boise State.

The Broncos keep chugging along crushing everyone in their path. WASEAN sees the Broncos clearly as the team that should be playing #1 Oregon if the Ducks run the table.

Speaking of the Ducks, Oregon did have a scare at Cal last night, but hung on for the 15-13 win. This is first time their rating has dipped below .9000, but they are still clearly the team to beat.

Auburn struggled early, but eventually beat Georgia going away, 49-31. WASEAN essentially expected this, so the Tigers’ rating only moved up very slightly, from .8040 to .8063. They still sit 7th, and should be a significant underdog at Alabama.

Please click the ‘read more’ link to see the ratings.

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2010 WASEAN Conference Ratings – Week 11

The trend that we’ve been moving towards over the last few weeks has finally seen the SEC pass the Pac 10 as the top league. The SEC has several out of conference matchups coming up, so there still plenty of time for the Pac 10 to return to the top, but it’s not looking good.

Meanwhile there was a shakeup in the other BCS conferences this week. It was a terrible week for the Big XII as they fell all the way to the bottom of the big-six, tied with the Big East. It’s way too close to call right now for 3rd through 6th.

How bad is the Sun Belt? It’s essentially an FCS league. The average FCS team is .415, the average Sun Belt team is at .410.

Please click the ‘read more’ link to see the ratings.

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2010 WASEAN Team Ratings – Week 10

After hammering Utah 47-7, TCU has somewhat narrowed the gap on Boise State for #2 (from .0118 to .0074). But Boise's win over Hawaii was nearly as impressive. Oregon, Boise and TCU are WAY ahead of everyone else. Any of them could probably lose a game (depending on to who) and still be in the top 3.

For some perspective, after the bowls, last year Alabama finished at .8592 and Texas at #5 was .8450. Through week 10 last year, Texas was at .8772, TCU at .8721, Florida .8698 and Alabama .8423. The teams at the top have been better this year than last. Oregon is at .9040, Boise State .8971 and TCU .8897.

Auburn is creeping up. Chattanooga isn't a bad FCS team (WASEAN has them #24 among that group), so yesterday really was impressive. But subjectively, the only team that is ahead of Auburn that I'd move the Tigers ahead of is Ohio State.

Also, I wouldn't sleep on Georgia @ Auburn next week. WASEAN sees a 35-24 game, so Auburn 1) has to win by that just to maintain their rating, and 2) needs to keep from looking ahead. Georgia is dangerous, they've been a much better team since the Colorado game. There have been bigger upsets. Right now the computer sees Auburn as a 7.5 point dog at Alabama (32-24.5).

Here’s another nifty thing I discovered while figuring those games out . . . for a ballpark point spread you can give the home team 3.5 points and then give the higher rated team 1 point for every .009 they are ahead in rating. So a .836 hosting a .804, would get get 3.5 points for being at home and another 3.6 for rating, giving them a 7.1 point edge. Those are the ratings for Alabama and Auburn, so it works out relatively close. Using this method to figure Georgia @ Auburn would give a 10.9 point spread.

One other thing to note – the top four teams in the FCS (Delaware, William & Mary, Villanova and New Hampshire) are all in the Colonial. JMU, the team that beat Virginia Tech, has lost to 3 of those 4, plays William & Mary this week and is 1-5 in the league.

JMU still sits as the #12 ranked team in the FCS, that’s how good the Colonial is. Even if the VA Tech game had never happened, JMU would be #21 in the FCS. And the Colonial would still be ranked ahead of the WAC and MWC.

Please click the ‘read more’ link to see the rankings.

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2010 WASEAN Conference Ratings – Week 10

The Pac-10’s once massive lead on the SEC has all but evaporated. It was halved again this week, from .006 to .003. There was a point during last night’s games where the SEC was ahead but the Pac-10 managed to stay ahead when all of the games were in the books.

The rest of the pecking order remains the same with the Big XII, Big Ten, ACC and Big East each separated by a few points, but way behind the big two.

Please click the ‘read more’ link to see the ratings.

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2010 WASEAN Team Ratings – Week 9

Michigan State and Missouri lost over Halloween weekend, leaving five undefeated teams. Here’s how WASEAN sees the top 10:

RK	LW	Team	WASEAN	RW	RL	RT
1	2	Oregon	0.9048	8	0	0
2	1	Boise State	0.8975	7	0	0
3	3	TCU	0.8857	9	0	0
4	4	Alabama	0.8472	7	1	0
5	5	Ohio State	0.8383	8	1	0
6	9	Stanford	0.8219	7	1	0
7	7	Utah	0.8211	7	0	1
8	6	Missouri	0.8109	7	1	0
9	10	Iowa	0.8054	6	2	0
10	12	Auburn	0.7959	8	0	1

I guess I have some explaining to do with BCS #1 Auburn at #10. The are ahead of everyone they’ve beaten. And they are undefeated in the SEC. I get this. But they’ve left home 3 times. Those three games saw them win 17-14 at #38 Mississippi State, 37-34 at #58 Kentucky and 51-31 at #70 Mississippi.

That road record is not typically what you’d expect of the best team in the country. #129 Vanderbilt went to Mississippi and won 28-14. #69 Fresno State went to Mississippi and won 55-38. A 51-31 win there is not a big deal.

Mississippi State is a decent team, sure. But they beat UAB at home 29-24. Kentucky only lost 24-17 there. The best team in the country goes in there and wins by more than 17-14.

At home Auburn needed a come from behind OT win to beat #42 Clemson 27-24. Clemson was winning 17-3 at halftime. They beat #16 South Carolina 35-27, #14 Arkansas 65-43 (a game they trailed in the 4th quarter) and #21 LSU 24-17.

What I (and WASEAN) see here is a good team that has been fortunate to have their toughest games (so far) at home. But when 4 other teams are undefeated and several others have one loss to good teams on the road, I don’t see how anyone can consider this the best team in the country.

Please click the ‘read more’ link to see the complete ratings.

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2010 WASEAN Conference Ratings – Week 9

The Pac-10’s lead is slipping. Everyone in the league played each other this week, but it must have been a bad week for their out of conference opponents, as the conference dropped from .722 to .704. The SEC is treading water at .698 but has narrowed the gap to just .006.

The Big 12 is slowly edging away from the Big Ten, but it’s still too close to call there and the ACC has moved ahead of the Big East. The Big East clearly has a problem at the top of the league, but top-to-bottom the league is still much better than the WAC or the MWC. While there are no Boise State’s or TCU’s in the Big East, there are also no New Mexico State’s or New Mexico’s. Don’t forget that Pitt took Utah to OT on the road.

The Colonial almost pulled another upset against the ACC this weekend, but North Carolina came back to beat William & Mary 21-17.

Please click the ‘read more’ link to see the ratings.

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2010 WASEAN Team Ratings – Week 8

We’re down to 7 FBS unbeatens with Boise State leading the way for the second consecutive week. Despite being idle, Boise’s rating rose slightly, as their opponents had a solid week. Oregon was in the opposite boat. Despite beating UCLA 60-13, their rating dropped very slightly as their opponents didn’t fare too well this weekend. These were minor shifts and both Boise State and Oregon are still neck and neck for the #1 spot.

TCU has a pretty solid hold on the #3 spot right now, with one-loss Alabama and Ohio State ahead of undefeated Missouri and Utah. WASEAN already saw Missouri as significantly better than Oklahoma, so the Tigers 36-27 home win didn’t have much impact, it was expected.

Please click the ‘read more’ link to see the ratings.

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2010 WASEAN Conference Ratings – Week 8

Things have pretty much stabilized at this point. The Pac-10 still has the lead, although they once again come back to the pack a bit this week.

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2010 WASEAN Team Ratings – Week 7

Week 7 separated some of the wheat from the chaff. Seven teams that are still in the top 25 lost. The previous #9 team (Cal) lost 48-14.

The big story looks like Missouri. The other Tigers, unbeaten LSU struggled before eventually beating McNeese State 32-10. Earlier this year, Missouri beat McNeese 50-6. In week 5, unbeaten Oklahoma State fell behind early at home before beating Texas A&M 38-35. Yesterday Missouri never broke a sweat in going on the road and hammering the Aggies 30-9. We’ll find out more this week as #5 Missouri hosts #15 Oklahoma.

Nebraska had to be the most disappointing team of the day, as they were thoroughly dominated, at home by a Texas team that had shown no signs of life this season.

Boise State has nudged past idle Oregon for the #1 spot, but for all intents and purposes they are tied, separated by only .0007. That is literally 2 points – if Boise wins 46-0 instead of 48-0 yesterday, Oregon would be ahead.

TCU sits comfortably in third. Here’s how WASEAN sees the final 10 unbeatens:

RK	LW	Team	WASEAN	RW	RL	RT
1	2	Boise State	0.9083	6	0	0
2	1	Oregon	0.9076	6	0	0
3	3	TCU	0.8840	7	0	0
5	11	Missouri	0.8482	6	0	0
11	19	Utah	0.7964	5	0	1
14	23	Auburn	0.7878	6	0	1
15	17	Oklahoma	0.7804	6	0	0
17	24	Oklahoma State	0.7687	6	0	0
21	20	LSU	0.7662	7	0	0
25	36	Michigan State	0.7506	6	0	1

For complete ratings, please click the ‘read more’ link.

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2010 WASEAN Conference Ratings – Week 7

The Pac-10 is still #1, but they are coming back to the pack slightly. The ACC is clearly the worst BCS conference top to bottom, although the Big East takes all the heat, since they don’t have a team in the top 25.

The Big Ten and Big XII are jockeying for 3rd and 4th. The Colonial, an FCS conference is still better than Conference USA and the MAC. Six FCS conference are better than the Sun Belt, whose average team (.398) isn’t much better than an average FCS team (.384).

Please click the ‘read more’ link to see the ratings.

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2010 WASEAN Team Ratings – Week 6

I was on vacation over the weekend, so the ratings are late this week, my apologies for any inconvenience this may have caused.

Quite a shakeup at the top this week. Alabama loses, and drops to #4. Ohio State can’t move up, as the Miami win doesn’t look nearly as good after Florida State rolled the Hurricanes.

Boise State has moved to #2 and TCU to #3. Staying in the WAC, WASEAN is starting to see Nevada’s win over Cal as a bit of a fluke. Nevada is ranked above Cal because they are still unbeaten, that trip to #46 Hawaii this weekend could be interesting.

Oklahoma is another strange team. They destroyed #18 Florida State. But against #145 Utah State, #42 Air Force, #41 Cincinnati and #75 Texas, the Sooners won by an average of 5 points.

Let’s wrap up with a quick look at where WASEAN has the 13 unbeatens . . .

1. Oregon
2. Boise State
3. TCU
5. Ohio State
7. Nebraska
8. Nevada
11. Missouri
17. Oklahoma
19. Utah
20. LSU
23. Auburn
24. Oklahoma State
36. Michigan State

To see the complete rankings, please click the “read more” link.

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2010 WASEAN Conference Ratings – Week 6

Please click the read more link for the conference ratings through week 6.

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2010 WASEAN Team Ratings – Week 5

The game of the year did not disappoint. Oregon and Stanford put on quite a show last night. After a slow start, the Ducks emerged with a 52-31 victory and have clearly played the football in the NCAA so far this season.

Alabama buried Florida but WASEAN pretty much expected this, so neither team moved in the rankings. Alabama’s rating moved up but not enough (or as much as) to catch Oregon’s. Florida’s rating dropped, and they fell behind Nevada and Cal. But they moved ahead of LSU, who should have lost at home to a bad Tennessee team; and James Madison, who was on borrowed time.

Boise State passes Ohio State who was unimpressive against an improved but still pedestrian Illinois squad.

Missouri and Nebraska both rocketed up the chart, from 27 and 25 to 14 and 15, respectively. The interesting thing is that they were both idle this week. This is an example of why it’s important to tear up last week’s ballot and start over every week.

Even if a team doesn’t play, you find out more about their opponents and earlier games get a new perspective. Missouri’s win over Illinois looks a lot better after yesterday. Ditto Nebraska’s 56-21 blowout of Washington, who beat USC on the road yesterday.

There are a few teams that are getting national attention that don’t deserve it based on their play so far. Oklahoma has not shown themselves to be top 10 caliber team. Michigan State may be 5-0, but WASEAN isn’t seeing them as a top 40 team, let alone a top 20 team. Auburn? An overtime win at home over Clemson and a close call at home with South Carolina as the marquee wins of a top 10 team? A 17-14 win at Mississippi State? C’mon voters.

And the worst of them all, Texas. WASEAN has seen this all year. After 3 weeks it warned you about them, only ranking the Longhorns #38. Even that underestimated how bad they were, not foreseeing a rout at home against UCLA. Something is definitely wrong in Austin, as WASEAN has Mac Brown’s team wedged between Kentucky and Cincinnati at #70. Ouch.

Please click the ‘read more’ link to see the ratings.

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2010 WASEAN Conference Ratings – Week 5

Another banner week for the Pac-10. There were no inter-conference games for the league this week, so Pac-10 opponents must have been out wreaking havoc. The league’s average rating shot from .727 to .751, a very healthy jump. The gap with the SEC tripled from .012 to .037.

For some perspective, as dominant as the SEC was last year, the league’s final rating was .703. That Pac-10 itself was easily the worst of the BCS leagues last year, with a paltry .601 rating. That’s worse than the awful Big East has been last year. But don’t forget, Washington and Washington State were god-awful last year, and definitely wrecked the league average.

The average Pac-10 team has been as good as South Carolina. The league has 3 of the 6 best teams in the country right now, 5 of the top 12 and another at #21.

Not be lost in my Pac-10 rantings, the SEC has been no slouch, also improved from last year (.701 to .714).

Please click the read more link to see the up to date conference ratings.

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Games of the Week – Week 5

One of the best games of the weekend is tonight, Texas A&M at Oklahoma State. WASEAN likes the Aggies by a point, despite their being a 2.5-3.5 point underdog, depending on where you look.

So each week I’ll put together a list of WASEAN’s top 20-25 games, based on something I wrote up last week called "Game Watchability Score". Essentially it weighs quality and closeness of teams (adjusted for HFA) 50/50. I'll include WASEAN's rankings of the teams so far too. Times are EDT. Thanks to lsufootball.net for the TV network info. They do a great job providing TV info for all games.

Game of the year, let alone game of the week
3.87 Stanford (3) @ Oregon (1) 8 p.m. ABC/ESPN2

Great matchups
3.15 Florida (11) @ Alabama (2) 8 p.m. CBS
3.10 Texas A&M (15) @ Oklahoma State (30) 9/30, 7:30 p.m. ESPN
3.01 Virginia Tech (19) @ NC State (18) 3:30 p.m. ABC/ESPNGP
2.90 Arizona State (17) @ Oregon State (36) 6:30 p.m. FSAZ/FSNW
2.83 Penn State (23) @ Iowa (11) 8 p.m. ESPN

Should be entertaining
2.24 Wisconsin (16) @ Michigan State (59) 3:30 p.m. ABC/ESPN
2.09 Delaware (33/2 FCS) @ James Madison (9/1) noon Comcast
2.08 Miami (FL) (5) @ Clemson (51) noon ESPN2/ESPN3D
2.00 Florida State (46) @ Virginia (69) noon ESPNGP/ACC Network
1.89 Navy (50) @ Air Force (71) 2:30 p.m. Versus
1.80 Texas (68) vs. Oklahoma (45) 3:30 p.m. ABC/ESPN/ESPNGP

Hey, at least it's football and not the NBA or something
1.66 FIU (64) @ Pitt (57) 3:30 espn3.com
1.64 Georgia (52) @ Colorado (84) 7 p.m. FSN
1.53 Ohio State (4) @ Illinois (62) noon BTN
1.52 Western Illinois (74/9) @ North Dakota State (94/15) no TV
1.46 Vanderbilt (63) @ UConn (40) noon SNY/ESPNGP
1.44 Notre Dame (53) @ Boston College (87) 8 p.m. ABC/ESPNGP
1.41 Villanova (44/4) @ William & Mary (85/13) 3:30 p.m. Comcast
1.37 Temple (28) @ Army (81) noon CBSC
1.31 Kentucky (65) @ Mississippi (96) 12:21 SEC Network/ESPNGP
1.26 Kent State (92) @ Miami (OH) (106) noon no TV

The least interesting games of the week:
-4.66 Savannah State (241/121) @ Liberty (38/3) no TV
-3.50 Valparaiso (240/120) @ Dayton (86/14) no TV
-3.26 Boise State (7) @ New Mexico State (207) 7 p.m. ESPNGP/WAC Network

Note the NM State is 3rd worst team in the FBS.

Last week's least interesting game was Austin Peay @ Wisconsin and the
final was 70-3.

2010 WASEAN Team Ratings – Week 4

There’s a new sheriff in town this week, and if it walks like a Duck, and talks like a Duck, it must be a Duck, right?

Clichés aside, after Alabama’s near loss at Arkansas, the Oregon Ducks take over the top stop this week. WASEAN sees Arizona State as the #17 team in the country, Arkansas as the #20. Oregon was quite a bit more impressive, and so they move to the top of the heap.

This sets up the game of the year (so far) this Saturday night. While everyone on the East Coast is asleep #1 Oregon hosts #3 Stanford, at 11:15 p.m. EDT. EDIT 9/27: This game has been moved to prime time (8 p.m. EDT) on ABC. Good job ABC!

There were some huge shifts this week. The game that shifted the rankings more than any wasn’t one you would expect.

#4 Fresno State lost 55-38 to #142 Mississippi. The same Rebel squad that lost to Jacksonville State in OT. My friends, isn’t losing to James Madison. Jacksonville State is ranked #27 in the FCS right now. This loss dropped Fresno from #4 to #72.

This sent some shockwaves through the top of the charts. This makes Cincinnati look a lot worse in retrospect, which now makes Oklahoma look bad – the Sooners dropped from #18 to #45. NC State, who also beat Fresno, drops from #5 to #18, despite an impressive win at Georgia Tech.

This just shows how volatile the early ratings can be. Things should stabilize in a few weeks.

According to WASEAN the most impressive performance of the week was the first one. Miami’s  31-3 win at Pitt scored a .945.

If you are an FCS fan, your game of the year is also this weekend, as #9 overall and #1 FCS James Madison hosts #33 overall and #2 FCS Delaware.

Please click to ‘read more’ link to see the ratings.

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2010 WASEAN Conference Ratings – Week 4

The cream is starting to rise to the top, and this year it looks like the Pac-10 and the SEC.

UCLA, probably the 8th best team in the Pac-10, 35-0 losers to Stanford - went out and destroyed Texas, 34-12. Stanford, one of the best teams in the country - pummeled a decent Notre Dame team. The league’s 6th best team, Oregon State hung in with Boise State, one of the best teams in the country. All three of these games were on the road.

The SEC is down a bit from the last few years, but is still a force to be reckoned with. Florida is finally starting to flex their muscles after a slow start, they moved up from #25 to #12 this week. The worst team in the league, Mississippi, blew out Fresno State (55-38), who had looked pretty strong before that game.

The ACC showed itself to be pretenders for the top spot this week. Which is strange, with Miami blowing out Pitt and UNC beating Rutgers, both on the road.

The bigger problem for the ACC was that several of the teams they played in earlier weeks showed themselves to be not as good as advertised, especially Fresno State. Right now I would say that Miami is the class of the league, with NC State and Virginia Tech as the only other viable contenders.

2010 looks it will be the year the Big East really became as bad as everyone has been saying it was for the last few years. There are some signs of live, as Cincinnati nearly knocked off Oklahoma and West Virginia played LSU tough before losing 20-14 on the road.

That being said, this league is still better than the WAC or the MWC, and if there are going to be six leagues with BCS automatic bids, WASEAN doesn’t see any reason to change that just yet.

If you are fan of FCS, the Colonial has 3 of the top 4, 4 of the top 8 and 5 of the top 13 teams right now.

Please click the “read more” link to see the ratings.

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Game Watchability Score – 2010 Week 4

I came up with a method that weighs the quality of teams and closeness of teams equally (with a home field adjustment thrown in). Games will score well if the teams are ranked high and the teams are closely matched.

The list is ranked by the ‘Game Watchability Score’, with the teams and their rankings. Remember it's early, the ratings used for this are based on 2-3 games per team. Still a fun method to look at it objectively. I’ll post these each week.

I’ll explain the methodology below in case you are interested.

Please click the “read more” link to see the scores. The rankings listed do not include games from Thursday/Friday and they combine FBS and FCS.

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2010 WASEAN Team Ratings – Week 3

Finally, the first ratings of the new season. As I said in the conference post, remember it’s early.

Even though it’s early, it’s pretty obvious Alabama is the best team in the country. But after that it is anyone’s game. Note that WASEAN doesn’t see VA Tech’s loss to JMU as a killer for Boise State at all.

A few notes . . .

Wagner and Cornell are not included, since they’ve only played each other, it’s impossible to tell how they compare with everyone else.

Also there were 5 applications of the ‘formulas are not perfect rule’. What this rule does is automatically bump undefeated/untied teams (remember that WASEAN does not count overtime) above the best team they beat. It also drops winless/tieless teams below the worst team they lost to.

Those situations this week are: Ohio State over Miami (FL), Wisconsin over Arizona State, USC over Virginia, Montana below Cal Poly, and Eastern Illinois below Tennessee-Martin.

Please click the ‘read more’ link to see the ratings.

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2010 WASEAN Conference Ratings – Week 3

Here we go, the first look at Conference Ratings for 2010! Just remember, it’s early. While a pecking order has been established, things move fast this early in the season.

Right now the Pac-10 and the ACC are off to the early lead, followed closely by the SEC and Big Ten. The Big East and Big 12 bring up the rear for the BCS conferences.

Note that two FCS conferences are ahead of the MWC, MAC, C-USA and the Sun Belt. The gap between FBS and FCS is much closer than most think.

To see the rankings, please click the “read more” link.

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