Sunday, November 8, 2009

2009 WASEAN ratings, week 10

The big story of the weekend was Iowa finally turning into a pumpkin, with a 17-10 loss at home to Northwestern. This was a horrible loss, Northwestern is not a very good team at all. Even after beating Iowa, Northwestern is still ranked #108 overall (up from #125 a week ago), behind 22 FCS teams.

Iowa dropped from #11 to #32 (among FBS teams) with the loss. Of course, this wasn't the same Iowa team we saw all year, their QB, Ricky Stanzi was injured early in the second quarter and replaced by a freshman (James Vandenberg) who went 9-for-27 for 82 yards with a QB rating of 27.1. Iowa didn't score another point. Northwestern scored a defensive TD on the play where Stanzi was hurt, tacked on another TD after a turnover on Vandenberg's first drive and scored just 3 points the rest of the way.

My best guess would have Iowa winning the game 30-13 if Stanzi doesn't get hurt. They'd probably only have dropped to 16th in the rankings. Just a huge injury.

Texas stays #1 after beating UCF 35-3. There really isn't much in their path (Baylor, Kansas, Texas A&M) until the Big 12 Championship Game, likely against Nebraska.

Meanwhile, TCU continues to destroy anyone that gets put in front of them. They get their last test of the season against #41 Utah this coming weekend. If they win that, they should finish 12-0. The Horned Frogs moved up to #2 this week, passing Florida. Boise State is a great team, and gets all the press, but TCU is probably the best non-BCS team in the country, and they could very well be the best team in the country. Too bad the SWC alignment isn't in place . . . that Texas/TCU game would be one I'd love to see.

Alabama did what was expected vs. LSU, and Cincinnati slipped up a little vs. UConn, though they held on for a 47-45 win. So Alabama jumps to #4 and the Bearcats come in at #5 and Boise State stays #6.

Those are your national championship contenders. Anyone else would need a miracle to crack past those 6, except for Georgia Tech or maybe Pitt, who would only need a ton of help, as opposed to a miracle. The gap in the WASEAN ratings between #6 and #7 is bigger than the gap between #7 and #15.

I realize Oklahoma looks strange at #7. While they are 5-4, they have lost those 4 games by a combined total of 12 points. Two of those losses were on the road against the #15 (1 point) and #17 (7 points) teams. Another was by 3 on a neutral field to the #1 team. They lost by 2 to the #29 team. There's a good chance they will be 8-4 by the time it's all said and done, and if they aren't, they won't be #7 anymore.

Please click 'read more' to see the ratings. They've been updated with the Nevada/San Jose State game.

2009 WASEAN conference ratings, week 10

The top three BCS leagues (SEC, ACC, Big East) are starting to pull away from the bottom three (Big 12, Pac 10, Big Ten). This week this was driven by the bottom three dropping, as opposed to the top 3 moving up. The Big Ten is dropping like a brick. They won't 'catch' the MWC, for 7th, but they are now closer to the MWC than the Big East.

The SEC really is as good as the hype this year. The #11 team in the SEC (Kentucky) is 5-4 and ranked 50th overall (among FBS teams).

The Colonial has 3 of the top 4 teams in the FCS, and those rank 16, 31 and 34 overall (including FBS). They have 7 of the FCS top 25. This might seem high, but . . .

Villanova beat Temple. William & Mary beat Virginia. Richmond beat Duke. New Hampshire beat Ball State. UMass only lost 21-17 at Kansas State. JMU is ranked 7th in the Colonial, and they only lost at Maryland 38-35. If you are questioning how this league ranks higher than C-USA and the MAC, you now know why. The top 7 would rank higher than the Big 10 if they were their own league. The top 10 would be higher than the MWC.

I have the Ivy league rated higher than most, still not sure if I'm wrong or the others are. Would be nice to see them play in the FCS playoffs, there is a new commissioner there, so maybe things could change in the future.

Division Conference WASEAN
I-A-BCS SEC 0.715
I-A-BCS ACC 0.683
I-A-BCS BigEast 0.681
I-A-BCS Big12 0.667
I-A-BCS Pac10 0.652
I-A-BCS Big10 0.617
I-A MWC 0.564
I-A I-A-Ind 0.558
I-A WAC 0.533
I-AA Colonial* 0.522
I-A CUSA 0.498
I-A MAC 0.479
I-AA MVC* 0.462
I-AA Ivy 0.457
I-AA GreatWest 0.443
I-A SunBelt 0.440
I-AA Southern* 0.439
I-AA Patriot* 0.431
I-AA BigSky* 0.390
I-AA NEC 0.379
I-AA Southland* 0.375
I-AA MEAC* 0.354
I-AA BigSouth 0.332
I-AA OVC* 0.326
I-AA Pioneer 0.315
I-AA I-AA-Ind 0.255
I-AA SWAC 0.240
*FCS automatic bid conference.
**FCS automatic bid conference when playoffs expand to 20 in 2010.