Saturday, November 7, 2009

2009 Week 9 NFL Projections


I was thinking spreads are too big, and I need to build more regression into them. But then I look and Sagarin has a similar spread at this point. I've got 32.06 between the Saints and Rams on a neutral field, he's got 31.98. It's just a weird year, with some truly awful teams I guess.

Remember the caveats, injuries aren't accounted for. All games are created equal, etc..

Miami 19, New England 28
Kansas City 17, Jacksonville 23
Baltimore 23, Cincinnati 23 OT
Green Bay 30, Tampa Bay 13
Arizona 21, Chicago 23
Washington 10, Atlanta 31
Houston 17, Indianapolis 31
Carolina 13, New Orelans 38
Detroit 14, Seattle 28
Tennessee 14, San Francisco 27
San Diego 23, NY Giants 26
Dallas 24, Philadelphia 26
Pittsburgh 16, Denver 24



2009 Week 10 Projections

I've run the WASEAN projections for Saturday's games. In case you don't remember from last week, the caveats are:

1) We're using the over/unders to project total points (average of whatever lines are posted on the Yahoo odds page).
2) I'm rounding off, so everything might not exactly add up.
3) The projection assume each team will play exactly like they have, on average, all season. If someone's star QB was there all year and just went down, the system doesn't know this. If a team finally figured it out, like say, Illinois last week, the system doesn't know if that's for real or an aberration.

Basically these are the scores that wouldn't change either team's WASEAN rating. I calculate it out to the 100th of a point (i.e. 25.25), but I'll post the rounded off scores.

I'll round a little differently than most, to make these useful. From 2006-2008, a team scored exactly 11 points in 4 of 791 games in a dataset I had handy. I'm not expecting Indiana to do so today, despite my projection. We'll round them down to 10 and bet they don't go for 2.

Another example, two teams project to less than 5.5 points, and I'm not going to go projecting safties, so I'll round them to 3 or 6, since 1 team in the dataset finished a game with 5 points.

Here are the projections for the top 25 and a few other games (sorted by game time):

UCF 7, Texas 38
Northwestern 13, Iowa 35
Syracuse 13, Pitt 37
Virginia 16, Miami 31
Wisconsin 31, Indiana 24
Western Michigan 19, Michigan State 35
Purdue 21, Michigan 30
Illinois 20, Minnesota 31
Louisville 20, West Virginia 36
South Carolina 24, Arkansas 30
Kansas 28, Kansas State 28 OT
Tennessee Tech 10, Georgia 38
Maryland 21, North Carolina State 34
Furman 17, Auburn 41
Texas A&M 28, Colorado 27
Baylor 17, Missouri 28
BYU 30, Wyoming 20
Navy 24, Notre Dame 31
Rice 13, SMU 44
LSU 14, Alabama 24
Oregon 31, Stanford 27
Wake Forest 20, Georgia Tech 41
Ohio State 17, Penn State 23
Washington State 13, Arizona 45
Oklahoma State 27, Iowa State 26
Washington 23, UCLA 27
Duke 20, North Carolina 28
Army 6, Air Force 31
TCU 38, San Diego State 13
New Mexico 7, Utah 41
Oregon State 27, Cal 31
Memphis 10, Tennessee 41
Vanderbilt 7, Florida 41
Houston 35, Tulsa 31
Northern Arizona 14, Mississippi 37
Florida State 23, Clemson 35
Connecticut 17, Cincinnati 38
USC 26, Arizona State 20
Oklahoma 21, Nebraska 21 OT
Utah State 31, Hawaii 30
Fresno State 38, Idaho 28
Nevada 34, San Jose State 30

I had Boise State 37, Louisiana Tech 14 for Friday night. Actual final was 45-35.

2009 Week 10 TV Schedule

This week's Top 25 (and a few others) TV schedule (all times EST, rankings through 11/6 game, within FBS, records do not count OT):

Saturday 11/7
Noon
FSN #75 Central Florida (5-3) @ #1 Texas (8-0)
ESPN #94 Northwestern (5-4) @ #11 Iowa (9-0)
ESPNU #86 Syracuse (3-4-1) @ #14 Pittsburgh (7-1)
ESPN360, GamePlan #57 Virginia (3-5) @ #16 Miami (FL) (6-1-1)
ESPN360, GamePlan #82 Louisville (3-5) @ #33 West Virginia (6-2)
12:21
ESPN360, GamePlan #44 South Carolina (6-3) @ #29 Arkansas (4-4)
12:30
Versus #46 Kansas (5-3) @ #63 Kansas State (5-4)
2:30
NBC #52 Navy (4-3-2) @ #43 Notre Dame (5-2-1)
3:30
CBS #15 LSU (7-1) @ #5 Alabama (8-0)
ABC/ESPN2 #17 Ohio State (7-2) @ #12 Penn State (8-1)
FSN #7 Oregon (7-1) @ #28 Stanford (5-3)
ABC/ESPN2 #55 Wake Forest (4-4-1) @ #9 Georgia Tech (8-1)
FCS Pacific #114 Washington State (0-7-1) @ #23 Arizona (5-2)
CBSCS #112 Army (2-5-1) @ #27 Air Force (5-2-2)
ESPNU #58 Duke (5-3) @ #35 North Carolina (5-3)
ABC/GamePlan #36 Oklahoma State (6-2) @ #66 Iowa State (5-4)
CSN-MidAtlantic FCS#1 Villanova (7-1) @ FCS#4 Richmond (8-0) 
4:00
Versus #3 TCU (8-0) @ #91 San Diego State (4-4) 
6:00
MTN #116 New Mexico (0-8) @ #31 Utah (6-1-1) 
7:00
ESPNU #110 Memphis (2-6) @ #20 Tennessee (4-4)
FSN #42 Oregon State (5-3) @ #41 California (6-2) 
7:15
ESPN2 #89 Vanderbilt (2-6-1) @ #2 Florida (8-0) 
7:30
CBSCS #34 Houston (7-1) @ #74 Tulsa (4-4)
ESPN360, GamePlan FCS#31 Northern Arizona (5-2-1) @ #22 Mississippi (5-3) 
7:45
ESPN #32 Florida State (4-4) @ #13 Clemson (4-3-1) 
8:00
ABC/GamePlan #37 Connecticut (4-4) @ #4 Cincinnati (8-0)
ABC/GamePlan #8 Oklahoma (5-3) @ #19 Nebraska (5-3)
ABC/GamePlan #18 USC (6-2) @ #60 Arizona State (4-4)
10:30
ESPNU #21 Fresno State (5-2-1) @ #80 Idaho (7-2) 
Sunday 11/8
8:30
ESPN #76 Nevada (5-3) @ #106 San Jose State (1-6)

Top 25 idle:
#24 South Florida (6-2)
#25 Texas Tech (6-3)
Top 25 already played:
#6 Boise State (9-0) 45, #78 Louisiana Tech (3-6) 35
#10 Virginia Tech (6-3) 16, #64 East Carolina (5-4) 3

Sunday, November 1, 2009

2009 WASEAN ratings, week 9

The contenders stepped up in Week 9, except for Iowa, but even they turned it on in the 4th quarter and survived. Florida throttled Georgia 41-17 and was poised to take over the top spot, which would have been the fourth consecutive week with a lead change. TCU was ready to move into the 2 hole as well after destroying UNLV.

But Texas was up to the challenge and blew out Oklahoma State to remain #1. TCU did move past Alabama and Cincinnati and now sits at #3.

The top 6 have now separated themselves from the pack. Boise State at #6 is closer to passing Texas for #1 (.0306) than falling behind #7 Oregon (.0330).

Iowa has won every game, yet they continue to drop. Their six-week raw ranking trend is now 3-10-13-14-15-17. I saw raw ranking trend because I've made an adjustment to the formula this week. I've decided to recognize a limitation in any computer ranking system regarding undefeated/untied (remember we don't count OT) teams and winless/tieless teams.

Going forward, I will move undefeated teams above the best team they've beaten, and winless teams below the worst team they've lost to. I think this is a reasonable compromise to recognize the limitations of the system. As I understand it, the Billingsley rankings, which are one of the six computers used by the BCS also do this. So if you see a team above or below a team with a higher/lower rating, you'll know why.

This week the adjustment impacts the rankings of Iowa (17->11), New Mexico (202->206) and Georgetown (233->238)

Here are the rankings through week 9. I will update them with the Marshall/UCF game after it's played tonight.

RK LW Team WASEAN RW RL RT
1 1 Texas 0.8759 8 0 0
2 2 Florida 0.8729 8 0 0
3 6 TCU 0.8659 8 0 0
4 3 Cincinnati 0.8561 8 0 0
5 4 Alabama 0.8475 8 0 0
6 5 Boise State 0.8453 8 0 0
7 10 Oregon 0.8123 7 1 0
8 8 Oklahoma 0.8099 5 3 0
9 9 Georgia Tech 0.8084 8 1 0
10 7 Virginia Tech 0.7998 5 3 0
11 11 Iowa 0.7581 9 0 0
12 12 Penn State 0.7994 8 1 0
13 17 Clemson 0.7902 4 3 1
14 14 Pittsburgh 0.7889 7 1 0
15 19 LSU 0.7781 7 1 0
16 15 Miami (FL) 0.7689 6 1 1
17 18 Ohio State 0.7688 7 2 0
18 21 Villanova 0.7572 7 1 0
19 13 USC 0.7555 6 2 0
20 23 Nebraska 0.7467 5 3 0
21 26 Tennessee 0.7425 4 4 0
22 16 Fresno State 0.7373 5 2 1
23 25 Northern Iowa 0.7350 5 3 0
24 20 Mississippi 0.7337 5 3 0
25 24 Arizona 0.7301 5 2 0
26 32 South Florida 0.7255 6 2 0
27 30 William & Mary 0.7213 7 1 0
28 44 Texas Tech 0.7198 6 3 0
29 41 Boston College 0.7155 5 3 1
30 42 Air Force 0.7139 5 2 2
31 28 Richmond 0.7132 8 0 0
32 27 Arkansas 0.7128 4 4 0
33 29 Stanford 0.7120 5 3 0
34 22 Central Michigan 0.7062 7 2 0
35 35 Utah 0.6990 6 1 1
36 33 West Virginia 0.6963 6 2 0
37 34 Florida State 0.6955 4 4 0
38 43 Houston 0.6945 7 1 0
39 52 North Carolina 0.6921 5 3 0
40 37 Oklahoma State 0.6891 6 2 0
41 31 Connecticut 0.6886 4 4 0
42 45 Brigham Young 0.6865 6 2 0
43 51 Auburn 0.6864 6 3 0
44 53 Elon 0.6852 7 1 0
45 46 California 0.6851 6 2 0
46 54 Wisconsin 0.6848 5 2 1
47 39 Oregon State 0.6825 5 3 0
48 49 South Dakota State 0.6805 7 1 0
49 40 Notre Dame 0.6777 5 2 1
50 38 South Carolina 0.6776 6 3 0
51 61 Mississippi State 0.6722 4 5 0
52 36 Kansas 0.6640 5 3 0
53 60 Southern Illinois 0.6616 6 1 0
54 69 Rutgers 0.6587 6 2 0
55 56 Jacksonville State 0.6534 5 3 0
56 55 Georgia 0.6528 4 4 0
57 47 Michigan State 0.6519 3 5 1
58 50 Kentucky 0.6493 4 4 0
59 70 Missouri 0.6492 5 3 0
60 58 Navy 0.6445 4 3 2
61 62 UCLA 0.6371 3 5 0
62 57 New Hampshire 0.6361 7 1 0
63 72 Wake Forest 0.6311 4 4 1
64 64 Washington 0.6284 3 4 1
65 59 Virginia 0.6255 3 5 0
66 74 Duke 0.6227 5 3 0
67 68 Southern Miss 0.6191 5 4 0
68 48 Michigan 0.6143 5 3 1
69 71 Northern Illinois 0.6138 5 3 0
70 66 Arizona State 0.6136 4 4 0
71 88 Texas A&M 0.6111 5 3 0
72 79 East Carolina 0.6091 5 3 0
73 93 South Carolina State 0.6065 7 1 0
74 78 Temple 0.6045 6 2 0
75 75 Kansas State 0.6021 5 4 0
76 86 North Carolina State 0.5980 3 5 0
77 83 Montana 0.5975 6 0 1
78 63 Iowa State 0.5949 5 4 0
79 95 Appalachian State 0.5923 5 2 1
80 81 Minnesota 0.5919 4 4 1
81 67 Massachusetts 0.5859 4 4 0
82 91 Troy 0.5852 6 2 0
83 101 Southern Methodist 0.5815 4 2 2
84 65 Delaware 0.5782 4 3 0
85 82 Pennsylvania 0.5781 4 1 2
86 94 Holy Cross 0.5740 7 1 0
87 90 Harvard 0.5688 5 2 0
88 80 Lafayette 0.5653 6 1 1
89 84 Ohio 0.5634 5 3 1
90 73 Tulsa 0.5633 4 4 0
91 89 Marshall 0.5620 5 4 0
92 85 UCF 0.5618 5 3 0
93 77 Arkansas State 0.5609 2 5 0
94 97 Liberty 0.5533 5 2 0
95 110 James Madison 0.5514 3 4 1
96 96 Nevada 0.5475 5 3 0
97 92 Baylor 0.5444 3 5 0
98 76 Stephen F. Austin 0.5395 5 2 0
99 102 Bowling Green 0.5320 3 5 0
100 98 Idaho 0.5295 7 2 0
101 122 Southern Utah 0.5290 3 4 0
102 106 Louisville 0.5287 3 5 0
103 87 Purdue 0.5284 3 6 0
104 114 Louisiana Tech 0.5245 3 5 0
105 109 Albany 0.5218 6 3 0
106 125 Utah State 0.5213 2 6 0
107 112 Brown 0.5181 4 2 1
108 100 Louisiana-Monroe 0.5177 4 4 0
109 123 Middle Tennessee 0.5163 5 3 0
110 105 Buffalo 0.5152 3 4 1
111 111 Central Connecticut State 0.5133 7 1 0
112 116 Syracuse 0.5129 3 4 1
113 113 Vanderbilt 0.5103 2 6 1
114 99 Colorado 0.5101 2 6 0
115 117 Indiana 0.5089 4 5 0
116 104 Central Arkansas 0.5036 3 3 0
117 103 San Diego State 0.5018 4 4 0
118 134 Eastern Washington 0.4978 5 3 0
119 115 Florida A&M 0.4963 5 2 1
120 124 Kent State 0.4955 5 4 0
121 107 Colorado State 0.4954 3 6 0
122 120 Colgate 0.4950 7 1 1
123 127 McNeese State 0.4916 5 2 0
124 108 Northern Arizona 0.4889 5 2 1
125 121 Northwestern 0.4869 5 4 0
126 119 Weber State 0.4864 5 4 0
127 128 Yale 0.4863 4 3 0
128 147 Illinois 0.4822 2 6 0
129 130 Wyoming 0.4816 4 4 0
130 137 Maine 0.4779 3 4 0
131 118 Western Michigan 0.4727 3 5 1
132 126 Eastern Illinois 0.4676 7 2 0
133 135 Maryland 0.4660 1 6 1
134 153 Norfolk State 0.4595 3 4 0
135 129 Columbia 0.4583 2 5 0
136 131 Cal Poly 0.4438 3 4 0
137 138 Dayton 0.4432 7 0 0
138 142 Hofstra 0.4407 4 4 0
139 133 Samford 0.4393 2 5 0
140 184 Texas State 0.4385 4 2 1
141 136 Akron 0.4381 1 7 0
142 159 UAB 0.4312 3 5 0
143 151 Drake 0.4299 5 1 0
144 145 UNLV 0.4288 3 6 0
145 162 Citadel 0.4288 4 3 1
146 139 California-Davis 0.4283 2 4 1
147 144 South Dakota 0.4279 2 3 2
148 150 North Dakota State 0.4278 2 7 0
149 132 UTEP 0.4261 3 5 0
150 140 Florida International 0.4253 1 6 1
151 141 Fordham 0.4231 3 5 0
152 156 Stony Brook 0.4185 5 4 0
153 146 Florida Atlantic 0.4170 2 5 0
154 152 Hawaii 0.4151 2 6 0
155 143 San Jose State 0.4141 1 6 0
156 154 Youngstown State 0.4134 4 4 0
157 149 Furman 0.4133 4 4 0
158 165 Illinois State 0.4116 4 4 0
159 157 Montana State 0.4098 3 3 1
160 168 North Dakota 0.4097 4 3 0
161 161 Georgia Southern 0.4068 4 4 0
162 148 Toledo 0.4051 4 5 0
163 163 Lehigh 0.4000 2 6 0
164 164 Jacksonville 0.3930 3 4 0
165 155 Missouri State 0.3926 5 4 0
166 174 Grambling State 0.3886 5 3 0
167 158 Chattanooga 0.3865 4 3 0
168 177 Prairie View A&M 0.3801 5 1 0
169 166 North Texas 0.3769 2 5 1
170 160 Memphis 0.3760 2 6 0
171 167 Army 0.3750 2 5 1
172 178 Louisiana-Lafayette 0.3747 4 3 1
173 188 Southeastern Louisiana 0.3684 2 3 1
174 169 Ball State 0.3661 1 8 0
175 173 Monmouth 0.3565 4 4 0
176 172 Eastern Kentucky 0.3559 5 3 0
177 170 Bryant 0.3514 2 5 0
178 183 Marist 0.3471 5 3 0
179 175 Dartmouth 0.3468 1 6 0
180 176 Wagner 0.3456 2 2 2
181 187 Old Dominion 0.3424 5 2 0
182 182 Miami (OH) 0.3390 1 8 0
183 190 San Diego 0.3320 2 5 0
184 179 Cornell 0.3315 2 5 0
185 180 Washington State 0.3293 0 7 1
186 186 St. Francis (PA) 0.3274 2 5 1
187 171 Delaware State 0.3267 2 5 0
188 191 Wofford 0.3224 2 6 0
189 181 Coastal Carolina 0.3193 3 5 0
190 193 Northern Colorado 0.3192 3 6 0
191 185 Rhode Island 0.3164 1 7 0
192 192 Hampton 0.3123 3 4 1
193 189 Robert Morris 0.3117 2 6 0
194 194 Alabama A&M 0.3048 4 3 0
195 196 Tennessee Tech 0.2919 4 3 0
196 198 Sacred Heart 0.2898 1 7 0
197 207 Sacramento State 0.2826 3 5 0
198 195 Virginia Military 0.2791 2 6 0
199 197 Western Illinois 0.2758 1 7 0
200 204 Gardner-Webb 0.2747 3 3 0
201 201 Eastern Michigan 0.2737 0 8 0
202 206 Austin Peay 0.2721 2 5 0
203 208 Princeton 0.2716 2 4 1
204 205 Duquesne 0.2700 2 6 1
205 200 New Mexico State 0.2693 3 6 0
206 217 New Mexico 0.2723 0 8 0
207 215 Morgan State 0.2662 4 2 2
208 227 Bethune-Cookman 0.2648 3 4 0
209 202 Tulane 0.2636 2 6 0
210 223 Charleston Southern 0.2626 2 5 0
211 203 North Carolina A&T 0.2622 3 4 1
212 209 Northeastern 0.2596 1 7 0
213 212 Butler 0.2561 4 0 1
214 199 Portland State 0.2538 1 7 0
215 210 Bucknell 0.2514 3 5 0
216 226 Southern University 0.2480 3 3 0
217 211 Davidson 0.2395 2 5 0
218 218 Tennessee State 0.2377 3 5 0
219 224 Winston-Salem State 0.2367 1 5 2
220 216 North Carolina Central 0.2359 0 4 2
221 214 Western Kentucky 0.2358 0 8 0
222 213 Towson 0.2316 2 6 0
223 219 Tennessee-Martin 0.2240 2 5 0
224 228 Western Carolina 0.2212 1 7 0
225 221 Rice 0.2177 0 8 0
226 222 Sam Houston State 0.2145 3 4 0
227 241 Texas Southern 0.2122 2 4 0
228 230 Jackson State 0.1904 2 4 1
229 225 Alcorn State 0.1895 2 5 0
230 220 Arkansas-Pine Bluff 0.1894 1 2 1
231 229 Southeast Missouri State 0.1874 0 7 0
232 232 Murray State 0.1869 1 6 0
233 236 Northwestern State 0.1820 0 8 0
234 237 Campbell 0.1712 1 5 0
235 231 Indiana State 0.1675 1 7 0
236 238 Nicholls State 0.1657 1 7 0
237 234 Howard 0.1642 2 6 0
238 235 Georgetown 0.1825 0 8 0
239 233 Morehead State 0.1633 0 6 2
240 239 Presbyterian 0.1590 0 8 0
241 240 Alabama State 0.1462 2 4 0
242 242 Valparaiso 0.1247 0 5 0
243 243 Idaho State 0.1184 0 8 0
244 244 Mississippi Valley State 0.0817 1 6 0
245 245 Savannah State 0.0797 0 5 0

2009 WASEAN conference ratings, week 9

The SEC is still easily the best conference in college football. They are so far ahead, that the #2 conference (the ACC) is as close to the 5th place Pac 10 (.026) as it is to the SEC. The Big 12 and the Pac 10 seem to be fading, although the Pac 10 is still much closer to the ACC than the Big 10.

Division
Conference
WASEAN
I-A-BCS
SEC
0.711
I-A-BCS
ACC
0.685
I-A-BCS
BigEast
0.682
I-A-BCS
Big12
0.668
I-A-BCS
Pac10
0.659
I-A-BCS
Big10
0.625
I-A
MWC
0.572
I-A
I-A-Ind
0.566
I-A
WAC
0.534
I-AA
Colonial*
0.522
I-A
CUSA
0.492
I-A
MAC
0.487
I-AA
MVC*
0.463
I-AA
GreatWest
0.448
I-A
SunBelt
0.446
I-AA
Ivy
0.445
I-AA
Southern*
0.433
I-AA
Patriot*
0.413
I-AA
BigSky*
0.384
I-AA
NEC**
0.367
I-AA
Southland*
0.363
I-AA
MEAC*
0.351
I-AA
BigSouth**
0.324
I-AA
OVC*
0.320
I-AA
Pioneer
0.290
I-AA
I-AA-Ind
0.249
I-AA
SWAC
0.233

*Automatic Bid FCS conference
**Automatic Bid FCS conference when field expands to 20 in 2010

2009 Week 8 NFL Projections

Here are the week 8 NFL projections. I won't project OT, as that's a coin flip anyway. Looks like there will be some good games this week.

I think I probably am projecting too large of a spread between the best and worst teams, but maybe not. There are some really bad teams right now.

Houston 20, Buffalo 20, OT
San Francisco 14, Indianapolis 30
Miami 17, Jets 23
Seattle 21, Cowboys 23
Cleveland 14, Chicago 24
Denver 21, Baltimore 20
St. Louis 17, Detroit 27
Oakland 13, San Diego 30
Jacksonville 21, Tennessee 21 OT
Carolina 10, Arizona 31
Giants 21, Eagles 21 OT
Minnesota 24, Green Bay 24 OT
Atlanta 20, New Orleans 35