WASEAN Projects the Bowls

Time to get the projections for the bowls on record . . . here’s how WASEAN sees things shaking out. Remember, if WASEAN projects a tie, I don’t break it. I just show the game as going to OT, call it a ‘pick-em’. Let’s just say it looks like the bowl organizers did a good job of matching up teams that are close . . .

Please click the “read more” link to see the projections.

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Final Regular Season WASEAN Ratings

Not too much to say this week, as there were only 4 D-I games (Army/Navy, the FCS Semis and the SWAC Championship), and all went pretty much as expected. So here are the final 2009 regular season ratings, the only games left are the FCS Championship Game and the bowls.

I’ll post projections for the bowls this week.

Please click the ‘read more’ link for the ratings. Note that instead of “Last Week”, I have “Week 13” since nearly everyone is the same as they were last week . . .

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2009 Bowls, Using Merit to Determine Placement

While almost all bowls are filled by contracts between the games and the conferences, the order within the conference that bowls use to select teams is not determined by merit. It’s determined by a mix of merit, TV appeal, travelability (new word?) of teams and ‘stories’, like a coach or player’s last game.

This doesn’t seem very fair. What would the bowl matchups look like if they were forced to take the best available team? How do you determine the best available team?

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2009 BCS Bowls According to WASEAN

Selection Sunday kicks off at 8 p.m. EST Sunday. What would the bowls look like WASEAN were used to pick who goes where? WASEAN doesn’t care about how well teams travel. It would assume that each bowl selects the best available team it is allowed to take.

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2009 WASEAN Ratings, Week 14

The SEC Championship was a bust, but the rest of Championship Weekend was one of the best couple of days of college football that I can remember.

The defacto Pac 10 championship game got the weekend off to a great start Thursday night as Oregon won a very entertaining 37-33 match-up in the 2009 edition of The Civil War. The #9 Ducks converted a couple of 4th downs late and is headed to Pasadena to take on #12 Ohio State New Year’s Day.

Saturday Cincinnati and Pitt got the day off to a great start with one of the most entertaining games of the season. The #7 Bearcats found themselves down 21 points with an undefeated season in jeopardy, but came from behind and won the game 45-44. The #14 Panthers missed a PAT after a mishandled snap with 1:36 to go gave them a 44-38 lead. Cincy finished unbeaten and will return to the BCS, most likely against Florida in the Sugar Bowl.

Boise State was not as impressive as expected in a 42-7 win over #115 New Mexico State. This caused this to slip behind Virginia Tech to #6. Tech’s opponents (Alabama & Georgia Tech) had a great weekend.

#2 Alabama got of a to a great start and never let Florida come up for air, leading start to finish in a 32-13 rout. Florida got the game within 12-10 in the 2nd quarter, but the Tide outscored them 20-3 the rest of the way. The Gators dropped from #1 to #4 with the loss.

Finally the night games . . . first the ACC. Georgia Tech blew a 33-20 lead as Clemson went up 34-33 with 6:11 remaining. But the #10 Yellow Jackets were able to put together a 13-play, 86-yard drive that consumed 4:45 to win the conference, spoiling CJ Spillers 20-carry, 233-yard, 4-TD performance.

In the Big 12 Championship, 14-point underdog Nebraska gave Texas everything they could handle. Despite managing just 106 yards of offense, the Cornhuskers, with the help of 3 interceptions, held a 12-10 lead with 1:44 to play. However, an out of bounds kickoff gave the Longhorns the ball on the 40 to start. A horse-collar tackle gave the drive a 15-yard boost. And with 1 second left Hunter Lawrence hit the game-winning 46-yard field goal.

Texas moves back into the #1 spot despite barely beating Nebraska. Their actual rating dropped from .8699 to .8617, but Florida dropped much further after getting blown out by Alabama. Alabama jumped from .8530 to .8583, and from #4 to #2, but it wasn’t quite enough to catch Texas.

TCU remains #3, Clemson’s loss didn’t help, as their rating dipped slightly from .8580 to .8557. The Army/Navy game will actually impact who finishes #3 or #4, as TCU needs a 33-20 (or better) win from Navy to maintain is razor-thin lead over Florida.

To see the ratings, please click the ‘read more’ link.

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2009 WASEAN Conference Ratings, Week 14

With only the Army/Navy game not played, the SEC has wrapped up the regular season as the top conference in the land. The ACC/Big 12/Big East follow behind very closely, with the Pac 10 and Big 10 bringing up the rear of the BCS conferences.

The Colonial had half of the Elite 8 and half of the Final Four in the FCS and placed ahead of 4 FBS conferences. I would really like to see the Ivy league in the FCS playoffs at some point as well, as WASEAN sees it as the second best FCS conference.

Please click the ‘read more’ link to see the ratings.

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Championship Saturday Projections

Big Day coming up Saturday! Here are the WASEAN projections. Remember they just assume each team will play as they have on average all season, doesn’t account for injuries, suspensions, etc..

Conference USA: Houston 34 @ East Carolina 34, OT
Big East: Cincinnati 30 @ Pittsburgh 31
SEC: Florida 22 vs. Alabama 20
ACC: Georgia Tech 28 vs. Clemson 28, OT
Big 12: Texas 30 vs. Nebraska 17

Others:
West Virginia 23 @ Rutgers 24
Fresno State 34 @ Illinois 28
San Jose State 14 @ Louisiana Tech 35
New Mexico State 6 @ Boise State 52
Arizona 24 @ USC 27
California 28 @ Washington 28, OT
Florida Atlantic 31 @ Florida International 34
South Florida 20 @ Connecticut 28
Wisconsin 33 @ Hawaii 24

FCS Playoffs:
William & Mary 23 @ Southern Illinois 23, OT
Stephen F. Austin 23 @ Montana 31
New Hampshire 17 @ Villanova 31
Appalachian State 20 @ Richmond 31

FCS non-playoffs:
Southern University 24 @ Texas Southern 27

I was too busy to get to this earlier, but these would have been the picks:
Pac 10: Oregon State 26 @ Oregon 37
MAC: Ohio 24 vs. Central Michigan 33
Arkansas State 30, Western Kentucky 21

2009 WASEAN Ratings, Week 13

Rivalry week brings a new #1 to the WASEAN ratings. Texas had been on top since a 41-7 shellacking of Missouri in week 8. But a tight 49-39 game with Texas A&M, coupled with Florida’s 37-10 blowout of Florida State was enough to move the Gators into the top spot.

Alabama, despite a close call at Auburn, closed the gap on TCU, but remains #4. The Horned Frogs suffered more because of Clemson’s loss to South Carolina than for anything they did, as they beat New Mexico 51-10 as expected.

Boise held onto the #5 spot, Virginia Tech remains ahead of unbeaten Cincinnati, who looks less impressive every week. Oklahoma rolled Oklahoma State 27-0, most likely knocking the Cowboys from BCS consideration.

Please click the 'read more' link to see the ratings.

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2009 WASEAN Conference Ratings, Week 13

It was a rough week for the #2 ACC, as both of their championship game teams lost to middle of the pack SEC teams. But the Big East had an even tougher week with South Florida getting blown out by Miami and Cincinnati only beating 3-8 Illinois 49-36. That allowed the Big 12 to sneak into the 3 spot. While the SEC is uncatchable, the #2 ranking is wide open heading into bowl season, with the ACC, Big 12 and Big East separated by just .006.

Please click the ‘read more’ link to see the ratings.

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2009 FCS Playoffs, Bracket and First Round Predictions

The FCS playoff bracket has been announced! Here's the bracket, with the WASEAN Ratings and records (which don't include OT or D-II opponents) as well. The top 4 seeds are #16 Montana, #1 Villanova, #6 Southern Illinois and #2 Richmond. All will get to host second round games if they win their opener.

#9 South Dakota State (8-3) @ #16 Montana (9-0-1)
#21 Eastern Washington (7-3) @ #25 Stephen F. Austin (8-2)

#5 Elon (9-2) @ #2 Richmond (10-1)
#12 South Carolina State (10-1) @ #10 Appalachian State (8-2-1)

#18 Holy Cross (9-2) @ #1 Villanova (10-1)
#11 New Hampshire (9-2) @ #27 McNeese State (8-2)

#38 Eastern Illinois (8-3) @ #6 Southern Illinois (9-1)
#22 Weber State (7-4) @ #3 William & Mary (9-2)

Here are the WASEAN predicted scores for the first round:

Montana 24, South Dakota State 24, OT
Stephen F. Austin 30, Eastern Washington 27

Richmond 27, Elon 20
Appalachian State 28, South Carolina State 24

Villanova 34, Holy Cross 14
New Hampshire 30, McNeese State 28

Southern Illinois 31, Eastern Illinois 14
William & Mary 31, Weber State 16

2009 WASEAN Ratings, Week 12

I posted on the collegebcs.com members mailing list this week that this was a terrible slate of games, and that it would be a good weekend to get some wife-points, that there wasn't much going on.

For the most part, that was an accurate assessment; there was little movement at the top of the ratings. The big dogs blew out the teams they were supposed to blow out. Florida did nudge ahead of TCU, by beating their patsy worse than TCU beat theirs. But overall, it was pretty uneventful, in terms of the national championship picture.

There were some great games though. UConn and Notre Dame went to OT. So did Oregon and Arizona. Mississippi edged LSU in a game that literally came down to the last second. So even a bad week provided plenty that was worth watching.

Next week has some huge games with BCS implications, with top teams going on the road. Thanksgiving night #1 Texas goes to Texas A&M. Friday #4 Alabama will be at #32 Auburn and #11 Pitt goes to Morgantown to face #29 West Virginia. #5 Boise State is at home Friday night, but they get a test as #51 Nevada comes to town. The Wolf Pack is playing very well over their last 4 games, they've risen 42 spots in the rankings.

Saturday, #26 Oklahoma State has a potential BCS at-large berth on the line in Norman vs. #12 Oklahoma. #2 Florida hosts a #40 Florida State team that isn't as bad as everyone thinks they are.

All of that should keep you busy over the holiday weekend. Please click the 'read more' link to see the ratings.

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2009 WASEAN Confernce Ratings, Week 12

No big inter-conference games this week to shake up the ratings here, I think we're pretty much set with the rankings at this point. The SEC is clearly the top dog, followed by the ACC. The ACC has 3 of the top 9 teams (#6, #8, #9) and two others in the top 25.

WASEAN does not share the Pac 10 love that other systems have. Only Oregon is in the top 20 (#10) with two others in the FBS top 25 (#22 & #25).

The Colonial pulled off an amazing feat, finishing with top three teams in the FCS. It wasn't just a top heavy league, as four others finished in the top 25.

Please click the 'read more' link to see the ratings.

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What if WASEAN were used for the BCS Standings?

I was wondering what the BCS bowl set up would be if WASEAN were used to determine the matchups.

What I'll do is use the BCS rules, but my ratings to determine who stays and goes. I'll use WASEAN to project the winners of any relevant remaining games as well.

Pertinent rules are:

1) No team can get a BCS at large berth with fewer than 9 wins or a ranking lower than #14.

2) No more than two teams can get a BCS bid from any conference.

3) The best non-BCS conference champion gets an automatic berth, as long as they are ranked in the top 12, or the top 16 if they are ahead of a BCS league champion. Other non-BCS conference champions that meet the ranking requirements of this rule are eligible to be selected for an at large berth.
4) Notre Dame is guaranteed a bid if they finish in the top 8.

5) The #3 team gets an automatic bid if they are from a BCS league.

6) The #4 team gets an automatic bid if they are from a BCS league and the #3 team already gets an automatic bid for winning their league, or qualifying under rule #3.

I guess #4 isn't really relevant after all . . .

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2009 WASEAN ratings, week 11

Week 11 featured some great games, but there wasn't a whole lot of movement at the top.

The game of the day saw Ohio State clinch a berth in the Rose Bowl with an overtime win over much maligned Iowa, playing with their backup QB, James Vandenberg. He was much improved this week, but still threw 3 interceptions. Iowa fans will be wondering what might have been, as there is little doubt in my mind that with Rick Stanzi they'd be sitting at 11-0 and smelling the Roses.

We can't forget though, Ohio State deserves credit for overcoming a couple of tough losses to win the Big 10. I've got them ranked #14 in the FBS, which is down for them, but they are still better than they generally have been getting credit for. Iowa sits at #29, but a lot of that is the Northwestern loss. If they'd won that game 30-17, as opposed to losing 17-10, they be #20 right now.

The top 4 remain unchanged, with Texas, TCU, Florida and Alabama. Texas put a little bit more distance between themselves and the pack with a 47-14 victory at Baylor. TCU was up 35-7 just 19 minutes into the game and throttled Utah, 55-28. Florida has their hands full against South Carolina, but still managed a 24-14 road victory. Alabama started slow but didn't have much trouble with Mississippi State, winning 31-3.

Boise State moves up a spot to #5 off of another blowout, this time 63-25 vs. Idaho. Last week's #6 Cincinnati survived another home game against a decent but not great Big East opponent, #32 (FBS) West Virginia, winning 24-21.

Meanwhile last week's #7 Oklahoma destroyed Texas A&M, 65-10, to move past Cincinnati. We discussed Oklahoma last week, and I know it seems strange seeing a 6-4 team ahead of a good 10-0 team - this Cincinnati squad is the real deal, this isn't Hawaii from a couple of years ago. But to rehash quickly, Oklahoma's 4 losses are by a combined 12 points against teams ranked #1, #13, #16 and  #36 in the FBS, and all were on the road or neutral fields. This not your everyday 6-4 team. In their 6 wins they've outscored their opponents 284-60 (47-10 on average).

EDIT: Wouldn't it figure, East Carolina's 44-17 blowout at Tulsa Sunday night had enough trickle down effect to move Cincinnati back in front of Oklahoma. Every game counts!

Combine this with the fact that Cincinnati does not have a win over a currently ranked team and it's not that implausible that Oklahoma is a whisker ahead .8162 to .8152. Cincinnati's best wins are over #27 UConn, #30 Oregon State, #32 West Virginia and #37 Rutgers. They buried Rutgers, 47-15, but the other 3 games were decided by 2, 10 and 3 points.

The ACC rounds out the top 10. Virginia Tech holds the #8 spot with a 36-9 victory at Maryland. The two likely championship game participants, #9 Georgia Tech and #10 Clemson both scored impressive wins Saturday. The Yellow Jackets jumped over Clemson, Pitt and Oregon after a 49-10 blowout of Duke.

Click 'read more' for the rankings, they'll be updated after Sunday's East Carolina/Tulsa game.

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2009 WASEAN conference ratings, week 11

Not much shake up in the conference ratings this week, they've pretty much stabilized at this point. There are a few big intra-conference games coming up, like Florida/Florida State, South Carolina/Clemson, Georgia Tech/Georgia, so maybe we'll see a little movement then.

There's been some talk of Boise State, Fresno State and Nevada joining the WAC. The speculation is that this would lead to the MWC getting an automatic BCS bid. So this week, I'll post the conference ratings, and below those, I'll post the conference ratings as if this realignment were already in place.

Please click 'read more' to see the ratings.

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2009 WASEAN ratings, week 10

The big story of the weekend was Iowa finally turning into a pumpkin, with a 17-10 loss at home to Northwestern. This was a horrible loss, Northwestern is not a very good team at all. Even after beating Iowa, Northwestern is still ranked #108 overall (up from #125 a week ago), behind 22 FCS teams.

Iowa dropped from #11 to #32 (among FBS teams) with the loss. Of course, this wasn't the same Iowa team we saw all year, their QB, Ricky Stanzi was injured early in the second quarter and replaced by a freshman (James Vandenberg) who went 9-for-27 for 82 yards with a QB rating of 27.1. Iowa didn't score another point. Northwestern scored a defensive TD on the play where Stanzi was hurt, tacked on another TD after a turnover on Vandenberg's first drive and scored just 3 points the rest of the way.

My best guess would have Iowa winning the game 30-13 if Stanzi doesn't get hurt. They'd probably only have dropped to 16th in the rankings. Just a huge injury.

Texas stays #1 after beating UCF 35-3. There really isn't much in their path (Baylor, Kansas, Texas A&M) until the Big 12 Championship Game, likely against Nebraska.

Meanwhile, TCU continues to destroy anyone that gets put in front of them. They get their last test of the season against #41 Utah this coming weekend. If they win that, they should finish 12-0. The Horned Frogs moved up to #2 this week, passing Florida. Boise State is a great team, and gets all the press, but TCU is probably the best non-BCS team in the country, and they could very well be the best team in the country. Too bad the SWC alignment isn't in place . . . that Texas/TCU game would be one I'd love to see.

Alabama did what was expected vs. LSU, and Cincinnati slipped up a little vs. UConn, though they held on for a 47-45 win. So Alabama jumps to #4 and the Bearcats come in at #5 and Boise State stays #6.

Those are your national championship contenders. Anyone else would need a miracle to crack past those 6, except for Georgia Tech or maybe Pitt, who would only need a ton of help, as opposed to a miracle. The gap in the WASEAN ratings between #6 and #7 is bigger than the gap between #7 and #15.

I realize Oklahoma looks strange at #7. While they are 5-4, they have lost those 4 games by a combined total of 12 points. Two of those losses were on the road against the #15 (1 point) and #17 (7 points) teams. Another was by 3 on a neutral field to the #1 team. They lost by 2 to the #29 team. There's a good chance they will be 8-4 by the time it's all said and done, and if they aren't, they won't be #7 anymore.

Please click 'read more' to see the ratings. They've been updated with the Nevada/San Jose State game.

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2009 WASEAN conference ratings, week 10

The top three BCS leagues (SEC, ACC, Big East) are starting to pull away from the bottom three (Big 12, Pac 10, Big Ten). This week this was driven by the bottom three dropping, as opposed to the top 3 moving up. The Big Ten is dropping like a brick. They won't 'catch' the MWC, for 7th, but they are now closer to the MWC than the Big East.

The SEC really is as good as the hype this year. The #11 team in the SEC (Kentucky) is 5-4 and ranked 50th overall (among FBS teams).

The Colonial has 3 of the top 4 teams in the FCS, and those rank 16, 31 and 34 overall (including FBS). They have 7 of the FCS top 25. This might seem high, but . . .

Villanova beat Temple. William & Mary beat Virginia. Richmond beat Duke. New Hampshire beat Ball State. UMass only lost 21-17 at Kansas State. JMU is ranked 7th in the Colonial, and they only lost at Maryland 38-35. If you are questioning how this league ranks higher than C-USA and the MAC, you now know why. The top 7 would rank higher than the Big 10 if they were their own league. The top 10 would be higher than the MWC.

I have the Ivy league rated higher than most, still not sure if I'm wrong or the others are. Would be nice to see them play in the FCS playoffs, there is a new commissioner there, so maybe things could change in the future.

Division	Conference	WASEAN
I-A-BCS	SEC	0.715
I-A-BCS	ACC	0.683
I-A-BCS	BigEast	0.681
I-A-BCS	Big12	0.667
I-A-BCS	Pac10	0.652
I-A-BCS	Big10	0.617
I-A	MWC	0.564
I-A	I-A-Ind	0.558
I-A	WAC	0.533
I-AA	Colonial*	0.522
I-A	CUSA	0.498
I-A	MAC	0.479
I-AA	MVC*	0.462
I-AA	Ivy	0.457
I-AA	GreatWest	0.443
I-A	SunBelt	0.440
I-AA	Southern*	0.439
I-AA	Patriot*	0.431
I-AA	BigSky*	0.390
I-AA	NEC	0.379
I-AA	Southland*	0.375
I-AA	MEAC*	0.354
I-AA	BigSouth	0.332
I-AA	OVC*	0.326
I-AA	Pioneer	0.315
I-AA	I-AA-Ind	0.255
I-AA	SWAC	0.240

*FCS automatic bid conference.

**FCS automatic bid conference when playoffs expand to 20 in 2010.

2009 Week 9 NFL Projections

I was thinking spreads are too big, and I need to build more regression into them. But then I look and Sagarin has a similar spread at this point. I've got 32.06 between the Saints and Rams on a neutral field, he's got 31.98. It's just a weird year, with some truly awful teams I guess.

Remember the caveats, injuries aren't accounted for. All games are created equal, etc..

Miami 19, New England 28

Kansas City 17, Jacksonville 23

Baltimore 23, Cincinnati 23 OT

Green Bay 30, Tampa Bay 13

Arizona 21, Chicago 23

Washington 10, Atlanta 31

Houston 17, Indianapolis 31

Carolina 13, New Orelans 38

Detroit 14, Seattle 28

Tennessee 14, San Francisco 27

San Diego 23, NY Giants 26

Dallas 24, Philadelphia 26

Pittsburgh 16, Denver 24

2009 Week 10 Projections

I've run the WASEAN projections for Saturday's games. In case you don't remember from last week, the caveats are:

1) We're using the over/unders to project total points (average of whatever lines are posted on the Yahoo odds page).

2) I'm rounding off, so everything might not exactly add up.

3) The projection assume each team will play exactly like they have, on average, all season. If someone's star QB was there all year and just went down, the system doesn't know this. If a team finally figured it out, like say, Illinois last week, the system doesn't know if that's for real or an aberration.

Basically these are the scores that wouldn't change either team's WASEAN rating. I calculate it out to the 100th of a point (i.e. 25.25), but I'll post the rounded off scores.

I'll round a little differently than most, to make these useful. From 2006-2008, a team scored exactly 11 points in 4 of 791 games in a dataset I had handy. I'm not expecting Indiana to do so today, despite my projection. We'll round them down to 10 and bet they don't go for 2.

Another example, two teams project to less than 5.5 points, and I'm not going to go projecting safties, so I'll round them to 3 or 6, since 1 team in the dataset finished a game with 5 points.

Here are the projections for the top 25 and a few other games (sorted by game time):

UCF 7, Texas 38
Northwestern 13, Iowa 35
Syracuse 13, Pitt 37
Virginia 16, Miami 31
Wisconsin 31, Indiana 24
Western Michigan 19, Michigan State 35
Purdue 21, Michigan 30
Illinois 20, Minnesota 31
Louisville 20, West Virginia 36
South Carolina 24, Arkansas 30
Kansas 28, Kansas State 28 OT
Tennessee Tech 10, Georgia 38
Maryland 21, North Carolina State 34
Furman 17, Auburn 41
Texas A&M 28, Colorado 27
Baylor 17, Missouri 28
BYU 30, Wyoming 20
Navy 24, Notre Dame 31
Rice 13, SMU 44
LSU 14, Alabama 24
Oregon 31, Stanford 27
Wake Forest 20, Georgia Tech 41
Ohio State 17, Penn State 23
Washington State 13, Arizona 45
Oklahoma State 27, Iowa State 26
Washington 23, UCLA 27
Duke 20, North Carolina 28
Army 6, Air Force 31
TCU 38, San Diego State 13
New Mexico 7, Utah 41
Oregon State 27, Cal 31
Memphis 10, Tennessee 41
Vanderbilt 7, Florida 41
Houston 35, Tulsa 31
Northern Arizona 14, Mississippi 37
Florida State 23, Clemson 35
Connecticut 17, Cincinnati 38
USC 26, Arizona State 20
Oklahoma 21, Nebraska 21 OT
Utah State 31, Hawaii 30
Fresno State 38, Idaho 28
Nevada 34, San Jose State 30

I had Boise State 37, Louisiana Tech 14 for Friday night. Actual final was 45-35.

2009 Week 10 TV Schedule

This week's Top 25 (and a few others) TV schedule (all times EST, rankings through 11/6 game, within FBS, records do not count OT):

Saturday 11/7

Noon

FSN #75 Central Florida (5-3) @ #1 Texas (8-0)

ESPN #94 Northwestern (5-4) @ #11 Iowa (9-0)

ESPNU #86 Syracuse (3-4-1) @ #14 Pittsburgh (7-1)

ESPN360, GamePlan #57 Virginia (3-5) @ #16 Miami (FL) (6-1-1)

ESPN360, GamePlan #82 Louisville (3-5) @ #33 West Virginia (6-2)

12:21

ESPN360, GamePlan #44 South Carolina (6-3) @ #29 Arkansas (4-4)

12:30

Versus #46 Kansas (5-3) @ #63 Kansas State (5-4)

2:30

NBC #52 Navy (4-3-2) @ #43 Notre Dame (5-2-1)

3:30

CBS #15 LSU (7-1) @ #5 Alabama (8-0)

ABC/ESPN2 #17 Ohio State (7-2) @ #12 Penn State (8-1)

FSN #7 Oregon (7-1) @ #28 Stanford (5-3)

ABC/ESPN2 #55 Wake Forest (4-4-1) @ #9 Georgia Tech (8-1)

FCS Pacific #114 Washington State (0-7-1) @ #23 Arizona (5-2)
CBSCS #112 Army (2-5-1) @ #27 Air Force (5-2-2)

ESPNU #58 Duke (5-3) @ #35 North Carolina (5-3)

ABC/GamePlan #36 Oklahoma State (6-2) @ #66 Iowa State (5-4)

CSN-MidAtlantic FCS#1 Villanova (7-1) @ FCS#4 Richmond (8-0) 

4:00

Versus #3 TCU (8-0) @ #91 San Diego State (4-4) 

6:00

MTN #116 New Mexico (0-8) @ #31 Utah (6-1-1) 

7:00

ESPNU #110 Memphis (2-6) @ #20 Tennessee (4-4)

FSN #42 Oregon State (5-3) @ #41 California (6-2) 

7:15

ESPN2 #89 Vanderbilt (2-6-1) @ #2 Florida (8-0) 

7:30

CBSCS #34 Houston (7-1) @ #74 Tulsa (4-4)

ESPN360, GamePlan FCS#31 Northern Arizona (5-2-1) @ #22 Mississippi (5-3) 

7:45

ESPN #32 Florida State (4-4) @ #13 Clemson (4-3-1) 

8:00

ABC/GamePlan #37 Connecticut (4-4) @ #4 Cincinnati (8-0)

ABC/GamePlan #8 Oklahoma (5-3) @ #19 Nebraska (5-3)

ABC/GamePlan #18 USC (6-2) @ #60 Arizona State (4-4)

10:30

ESPNU #21 Fresno State (5-2-1) @ #80 Idaho (7-2) 

Sunday 11/8

8:30

ESPN #76 Nevada (5-3) @ #106 San Jose State (1-6)

Top 25 idle:
#24 South Florida (6-2)
#25 Texas Tech (6-3)
Top 25 already played:
#6 Boise State (9-0) 45, #78 Louisiana Tech (3-6) 35
#10 Virginia Tech (6-3) 16, #64 East Carolina (5-4) 3

2009 WASEAN ratings, week 9

The contenders stepped up in Week 9, except for Iowa, but even they turned it on in the 4th quarter and survived. Florida throttled Georgia 41-17 and was poised to take over the top spot, which would have been the fourth consecutive week with a lead change. TCU was ready to move into the 2 hole as well after destroying UNLV.

But Texas was up to the challenge and blew out Oklahoma State to remain #1. TCU did move past Alabama and Cincinnati and now sits at #3.

The top 6 have now separated themselves from the pack. Boise State at #6 is closer to passing Texas for #1 (.0306) than falling behind #7 Oregon (.0330).

Iowa has won every game, yet they continue to drop. Their six-week raw ranking trend is now 3-10-13-14-15-17. I saw raw ranking trend because I've made an adjustment to the formula this week. I've decided to recognize a limitation in any computer ranking system regarding undefeated/untied (remember we don't count OT) teams and winless/tieless teams.

Going forward, I will move undefeated teams above the best team they've beaten, and winless teams below the worst team they've lost to. I think this is a reasonable compromise to recognize the limitations of the system. As I understand it, the Billingsley rankings, which are one of the six computers used by the BCS also do this. So if you see a team above or below a team with a higher/lower rating, you'll know why.

This week the adjustment impacts the rankings of Iowa (17->11), New Mexico (202->206) and Georgetown (233->238)

Here are the rankings through week 9. I will update them with the Marshall/UCF game after it's played tonight.

RK	LW	Team	WASEAN	RW	RL	RT
1	1	Texas	0.8759	8	0	0
2	2	Florida	0.8729	8	0	0
3	6	TCU	0.8659	8	0	0
4	3	Cincinnati	0.8561	8	0	0
5	4	Alabama	0.8475	8	0	0
6	5	Boise State	0.8453	8	0	0
7	10	Oregon	0.8123	7	1	0
8	8	Oklahoma	0.8099	5	3	0
9	9	Georgia Tech	0.8084	8	1	0
10	7	Virginia Tech	0.7998	5	3	0
11	11	Iowa	0.7581	9	0	0
12	12	Penn State	0.7994	8	1	0
13	17	Clemson	0.7902	4	3	1
14	14	Pittsburgh	0.7889	7	1	0
15	19	LSU	0.7781	7	1	0
16	15	Miami (FL)	0.7689	6	1	1
17	18	Ohio State	0.7688	7	2	0
18	21	Villanova	0.7572	7	1	0
19	13	USC	0.7555	6	2	0
20	23	Nebraska	0.7467	5	3	0
21	26	Tennessee	0.7425	4	4	0
22	16	Fresno State	0.7373	5	2	1
23	25	Northern Iowa	0.7350	5	3	0
24	20	Mississippi	0.7337	5	3	0
25	24	Arizona	0.7301	5	2	0
26	32	South Florida	0.7255	6	2	0
27	30	William & Mary	0.7213	7	1	0
28	44	Texas Tech	0.7198	6	3	0
29	41	Boston College	0.7155	5	3	1
30	42	Air Force	0.7139	5	2	2
31	28	Richmond	0.7132	8	0	0
32	27	Arkansas	0.7128	4	4	0
33	29	Stanford	0.7120	5	3	0
34	22	Central Michigan	0.7062	7	2	0
35	35	Utah	0.6990	6	1	1
36	33	West Virginia	0.6963	6	2	0
37	34	Florida State	0.6955	4	4	0
38	43	Houston	0.6945	7	1	0
39	52	North Carolina	0.6921	5	3	0
40	37	Oklahoma State	0.6891	6	2	0
41	31	Connecticut	0.6886	4	4	0
42	45	Brigham Young	0.6865	6	2	0
43	51	Auburn	0.6864	6	3	0
44	53	Elon	0.6852	7	1	0
45	46	California	0.6851	6	2	0
46	54	Wisconsin	0.6848	5	2	1
47	39	Oregon State	0.6825	5	3	0
48	49	South Dakota State	0.6805	7	1	0
49	40	Notre Dame	0.6777	5	2	1
50	38	South Carolina	0.6776	6	3	0
51	61	Mississippi State	0.6722	4	5	0
52	36	Kansas	0.6640	5	3	0
53	60	Southern Illinois	0.6616	6	1	0
54	69	Rutgers	0.6587	6	2	0
55	56	Jacksonville State	0.6534	5	3	0
56	55	Georgia	0.6528	4	4	0
57	47	Michigan State	0.6519	3	5	1
58	50	Kentucky	0.6493	4	4	0
59	70	Missouri	0.6492	5	3	0
60	58	Navy	0.6445	4	3	2
61	62	UCLA	0.6371	3	5	0
62	57	New Hampshire	0.6361	7	1	0
63	72	Wake Forest	0.6311	4	4	1
64	64	Washington	0.6284	3	4	1
65	59	Virginia	0.6255	3	5	0
66	74	Duke	0.6227	5	3	0
67	68	Southern Miss	0.6191	5	4	0
68	48	Michigan	0.6143	5	3	1
69	71	Northern Illinois	0.6138	5	3	0
70	66	Arizona State	0.6136	4	4	0
71	88	Texas A&M	0.6111	5	3	0
72	79	East Carolina	0.6091	5	3	0
73	93	South Carolina State	0.6065	7	1	0
74	78	Temple	0.6045	6	2	0
75	75	Kansas State	0.6021	5	4	0
76	86	North Carolina State	0.5980	3	5	0
77	83	Montana	0.5975	6	0	1
78	63	Iowa State	0.5949	5	4	0
79	95	Appalachian State	0.5923	5	2	1
80	81	Minnesota	0.5919	4	4	1
81	67	Massachusetts	0.5859	4	4	0
82	91	Troy	0.5852	6	2	0
83	101	Southern Methodist	0.5815	4	2	2
84	65	Delaware	0.5782	4	3	0
85	82	Pennsylvania	0.5781	4	1	2
86	94	Holy Cross	0.5740	7	1	0
87	90	Harvard	0.5688	5	2	0
88	80	Lafayette	0.5653	6	1	1
89	84	Ohio	0.5634	5	3	1
90	73	Tulsa	0.5633	4	4	0
91	89	Marshall	0.5620	5	4	0
92	85	UCF	0.5618	5	3	0
93	77	Arkansas State	0.5609	2	5	0
94	97	Liberty	0.5533	5	2	0
95	110	James Madison	0.5514	3	4	1
96	96	Nevada	0.5475	5	3	0
97	92	Baylor	0.5444	3	5	0
98	76	Stephen F. Austin	0.5395	5	2	0
99	102	Bowling Green	0.5320	3	5	0
100	98	Idaho	0.5295	7	2	0
101	122	Southern Utah	0.5290	3	4	0
102	106	Louisville	0.5287	3	5	0
103	87	Purdue	0.5284	3	6	0
104	114	Louisiana Tech	0.5245	3	5	0
105	109	Albany	0.5218	6	3	0
106	125	Utah State	0.5213	2	6	0
107	112	Brown	0.5181	4	2	1
108	100	Louisiana-Monroe	0.5177	4	4	0
109	123	Middle Tennessee	0.5163	5	3	0
110	105	Buffalo	0.5152	3	4	1
111	111	Central Connecticut State	0.5133	7	1	0
112	116	Syracuse	0.5129	3	4	1
113	113	Vanderbilt	0.5103	2	6	1
114	99	Colorado	0.5101	2	6	0
115	117	Indiana	0.5089	4	5	0
116	104	Central Arkansas	0.5036	3	3	0
117	103	San Diego State	0.5018	4	4	0
118	134	Eastern Washington	0.4978	5	3	0
119	115	Florida A&M	0.4963	5	2	1
120	124	Kent State	0.4955	5	4	0
121	107	Colorado State	0.4954	3	6	0
122	120	Colgate	0.4950	7	1	1
123	127	McNeese State	0.4916	5	2	0
124	108	Northern Arizona	0.4889	5	2	1
125	121	Northwestern	0.4869	5	4	0
126	119	Weber State	0.4864	5	4	0
127	128	Yale	0.4863	4	3	0
128	147	Illinois	0.4822	2	6	0
129	130	Wyoming	0.4816	4	4	0
130	137	Maine	0.4779	3	4	0
131	118	Western Michigan	0.4727	3	5	1
132	126	Eastern Illinois	0.4676	7	2	0
133	135	Maryland	0.4660	1	6	1
134	153	Norfolk State	0.4595	3	4	0
135	129	Columbia	0.4583	2	5	0
136	131	Cal Poly	0.4438	3	4	0
137	138	Dayton	0.4432	7	0	0
138	142	Hofstra	0.4407	4	4	0
139	133	Samford	0.4393	2	5	0
140	184	Texas State	0.4385	4	2	1
141	136	Akron	0.4381	1	7	0
142	159	UAB	0.4312	3	5	0
143	151	Drake	0.4299	5	1	0
144	145	UNLV	0.4288	3	6	0
145	162	Citadel	0.4288	4	3	1
146	139	California-Davis	0.4283	2	4	1
147	144	South Dakota	0.4279	2	3	2
148	150	North Dakota State	0.4278	2	7	0
149	132	UTEP	0.4261	3	5	0
150	140	Florida International	0.4253	1	6	1
151	141	Fordham	0.4231	3	5	0
152	156	Stony Brook	0.4185	5	4	0
153	146	Florida Atlantic	0.4170	2	5	0
154	152	Hawaii	0.4151	2	6	0
155	143	San Jose State	0.4141	1	6	0
156	154	Youngstown State	0.4134	4	4	0
157	149	Furman	0.4133	4	4	0
158	165	Illinois State	0.4116	4	4	0
159	157	Montana State	0.4098	3	3	1
160	168	North Dakota	0.4097	4	3	0
161	161	Georgia Southern	0.4068	4	4	0
162	148	Toledo	0.4051	4	5	0
163	163	Lehigh	0.4000	2	6	0
164	164	Jacksonville	0.3930	3	4	0
165	155	Missouri State	0.3926	5	4	0
166	174	Grambling State	0.3886	5	3	0
167	158	Chattanooga	0.3865	4	3	0
168	177	Prairie View A&M	0.3801	5	1	0
169	166	North Texas	0.3769	2	5	1
170	160	Memphis	0.3760	2	6	0
171	167	Army	0.3750	2	5	1
172	178	Louisiana-Lafayette	0.3747	4	3	1
173	188	Southeastern Louisiana	0.3684	2	3	1
174	169	Ball State	0.3661	1	8	0
175	173	Monmouth	0.3565	4	4	0
176	172	Eastern Kentucky	0.3559	5	3	0
177	170	Bryant	0.3514	2	5	0
178	183	Marist	0.3471	5	3	0
179	175	Dartmouth	0.3468	1	6	0
180	176	Wagner	0.3456	2	2	2
181	187	Old Dominion	0.3424	5	2	0
182	182	Miami (OH)	0.3390	1	8	0
183	190	San Diego	0.3320	2	5	0
184	179	Cornell	0.3315	2	5	0
185	180	Washington State	0.3293	0	7	1
186	186	St. Francis (PA)	0.3274	2	5	1
187	171	Delaware State	0.3267	2	5	0
188	191	Wofford	0.3224	2	6	0
189	181	Coastal Carolina	0.3193	3	5	0
190	193	Northern Colorado	0.3192	3	6	0
191	185	Rhode Island	0.3164	1	7	0
192	192	Hampton	0.3123	3	4	1
193	189	Robert Morris	0.3117	2	6	0
194	194	Alabama A&M	0.3048	4	3	0
195	196	Tennessee Tech	0.2919	4	3	0
196	198	Sacred Heart	0.2898	1	7	0
197	207	Sacramento State	0.2826	3	5	0
198	195	Virginia Military	0.2791	2	6	0
199	197	Western Illinois	0.2758	1	7	0
200	204	Gardner-Webb	0.2747	3	3	0
201	201	Eastern Michigan	0.2737	0	8	0
202	206	Austin Peay	0.2721	2	5	0
203	208	Princeton	0.2716	2	4	1
204	205	Duquesne	0.2700	2	6	1
205	200	New Mexico State	0.2693	3	6	0
206	217	New Mexico	0.2723	0	8	0
207	215	Morgan State	0.2662	4	2	2
208	227	Bethune-Cookman	0.2648	3	4	0
209	202	Tulane	0.2636	2	6	0
210	223	Charleston Southern	0.2626	2	5	0
211	203	North Carolina A&T	0.2622	3	4	1
212	209	Northeastern	0.2596	1	7	0
213	212	Butler	0.2561	4	0	1
214	199	Portland State	0.2538	1	7	0
215	210	Bucknell	0.2514	3	5	0
216	226	Southern University	0.2480	3	3	0
217	211	Davidson	0.2395	2	5	0
218	218	Tennessee State	0.2377	3	5	0
219	224	Winston-Salem State	0.2367	1	5	2
220	216	North Carolina Central	0.2359	0	4	2
221	214	Western Kentucky	0.2358	0	8	0
222	213	Towson	0.2316	2	6	0
223	219	Tennessee-Martin	0.2240	2	5	0
224	228	Western Carolina	0.2212	1	7	0
225	221	Rice	0.2177	0	8	0
226	222	Sam Houston State	0.2145	3	4	0
227	241	Texas Southern	0.2122	2	4	0
228	230	Jackson State	0.1904	2	4	1
229	225	Alcorn State	0.1895	2	5	0
230	220	Arkansas-Pine Bluff	0.1894	1	2	1
231	229	Southeast Missouri State	0.1874	0	7	0
232	232	Murray State	0.1869	1	6	0
233	236	Northwestern State	0.1820	0	8	0
234	237	Campbell	0.1712	1	5	0
235	231	Indiana State	0.1675	1	7	0
236	238	Nicholls State	0.1657	1	7	0
237	234	Howard	0.1642	2	6	0
238	235	Georgetown	0.1825	0	8	0
239	233	Morehead State	0.1633	0	6	2
240	239	Presbyterian	0.1590	0	8	0
241	240	Alabama State	0.1462	2	4	0
242	242	Valparaiso	0.1247	0	5	0
243	243	Idaho State	0.1184	0	8	0
244	244	Mississippi Valley State	0.0817	1	6	0
245	245	Savannah State	0.0797	0	5	0