Saturday, October 31, 2009

2009 Week 9 Projections

OK, let's use WASEAN to predict today's games. The caveats are:

1) We're using the over/unders to project total points (average of whatever lines are posted on the yahoo odds page).
2) I'm rounding off, so everything might not exactly add up.
3) The projection assume each team will play exactly like they have, on average, all season. If someone's star QB was there all year and just went down, the system doesn't know this.

Basically these are the scores that wouldn't change either team's WASEAN rating. I calculate it out to the 100th of a point (i.e. 25.25), but I'll post the rounded off scores.

I'll round a little differently than most, to make these useful. From 2006-2008, a team scored exactly 11 points in 4 of 791 games in a dataset I had handy. I'm not expecting Indiana to do so today, despite my projection. We'll round them down to 10 and bet they don't go for 2.

Another example, two teams project to less than 5.5 points, and I'm not going to go projecting safties, so I'll round them to 3 or 6, since 1 team in the dataset finished a game with 5 points.

Here are the projections for the top 25 and a few other games (sorted by game time):

Cincinnati 38 @ Syracuse 14
Indiana 10 @ Iowa 35
New Mexico State 6 @ Ohio State 42
Rutgers 17 @ UConn 28
Mississippi 26 @ Auburn 24
Nebraska 27 @ Baylor 20
Coastal Carolina 10 @ Clemson 45
San Jose State 10 @ Boise State 45
Florida 34 vs. Georgia 16
Miami (FL) 30 @ Wake Forest 21
Central Michigan 24 @ Boston College 24
Michigan 34 @ Illinois 21
Kansas 31 @ Texas Tech 34
UNLV 10 @ TCU 48
Penn State 31 @ Northwestern 14
Utah State 17 @ Fresno State 45
Kansas State 13 @ Oklahoma 35
Eastern Michigan 13 @ Arkansas 49
Georgia Tech 31 @ Vanderbilt 14
Washington State 17 vs. Notre Dame 42
South Carolina 17 @ Tennessee 24
Texas 34 @ Oklahoma State 21
Tulane 3 @ LSU 41
USC 21 @ Oregon 26

EDIT 11:47 a.m. CDT 10/31: I ran a few more . . .

UCLA 20 @ Oregon State 28
SMU 21 @ Tulsa 30
Missouri 24 @ Colorado 23
Wyoming 13 @ Utah 31
Michigan State 24 @ Minnesota 23

Friday, October 30, 2009

2009 Week 9 TV Schedule

This week's Top 25 (and a few others) TV schedule (all times EDT, rankings through 10/30 game, within FBS, records do not count OT):

Saturday 10/31
Noon
ESPNU #3 Cincinnati (7-0) @ #89 Syracuse (3-3-1)
ESPN #90 Indiana (4-4) @ #14 Iowa (8-0)
Big Ten Network #115 New Mexico State (3-5) @ #18 Ohio State (6-2)
ESPN360, GamePlan #57 Rutgers (5-2) @ #28 Connecticut (4-3)
12:21
ESPN360, GamePlan #20 Mississippi (5-2) @ #47 Auburn (5-3)
12:30
Versus #23 Nebraska (4-3) @ #75 Baylor (3-4)
1:30
ESPN360 #68 (FCS) Coastal Carolina (3-4) @ #17 Clemson (3-3-1)
3:00
ESPN360, GamePlan #101 San Jose State (1-5) @ #4 Boise State (7-0)
3:30
CBS #2 Florida (7-0) vs. #49 Georgia (4-3) from Jacksonville
ABC #15 Miami (FL) (5-1-1) @ #61 Wake Forest (4-3-1)
ESPNU #21 Central Michigan (7-1) @ #40 Boston College (4-3-1)
ABC #32 Kansas (5-2) @ #41 Texas Tech (5-3)
4:00
Versus #102 UNLV (3-5) @ #6 TCU (7-0)
4:30
ESPN #10 Penn State (7-1) @ #92 Northwestern (5-3)
5:00
no TV #95 Utah State (2-5) @ #16 Fresno State (4-2-1)
7:00
FSN #65 Kansas State (5-3) @ #7 Oklahoma (4-3)
ESPNU #116 Eastern Michigan (0-7) @ #25 Arkansas (3-4)
7:30
ESPN360, GamePlan #9 Georgia Tech (7-1) @ #87 Vanderbilt (2-5-1)
NBC #113 Washington State (0-6-1) vs. #36 Notre Dame (4-2-1) from San Antonio
7:45
ESPN #35 South Carolina (6-2) @ #24 Tennessee (3-4)
8:00
ABC or ESPN2 #1 Texas (7-0) @ #31 Oklahoma State (6-1)
ESPN360, GamePlan #117 Tulane (2-5) @ #19 LSU (6-1)
ABC or ESPN2 #12 USC (6-1) @ #8 Oregon (6-1)

Top 25 idle: #5 Alabama (8-0), #13 Pittsburgh (7-1), #22 Arizona (5-2)
Top 25 already played: #11 Virginia Tech (5-3), lost 20-17 vs. #37 North Carolina (5-3)

VA Tech upset at home, ratings shake up a little

North Carolina's upset of Virginia Tech shakes up the ratings a little.

Oregon has jumped past Georgia Tech and VA Tech into 8th heading into this weekend's matchup with #12 USC.

Boise State has moved past Alabama into 4th, as the Tide's win over VA Tech has lost a little luster.

The Hokies dropped 4 spots and 5-3 North Carolina jumped 11 spots from #48 to #37.

Iowa snuck past Miami as well, into 14th.

And the Big East has moved into the #2 spot in the conference ratings based off the 2 games this week.

All this shows is just how tight the ratings are with as few data points as there are in a college football season.

Tuesday, October 27, 2009

2009 NFL Ratings through week 7


I don't think there's anything all that shocking here - other than the Cowboys and Steelers aren't all that good, even after their big wins this past weekend. Philadelphia unexpectedly kind of stinks too; even if we take out the game where they were pasted by the Saints without McNabb, they'd only be 18th.

The main thing that stands out to me is that the Saints, Colts, Broncos and Patriots are way ahead of the field. The Jets in 5th are closer to falling behind Atlanta for 12th than they are to passing the Patriots for 4th.


Rank Team WASEAN
1 New Orleans 0.7752
2 Indianapolis 0.7385
3 Denver 0.7165
4 New England 0.6946
5 NY Jets 0.6361
6 Minnesota 0.6225
7 Green Bay 0.6199
8 Arizona 0.6163
9 Baltimore 0.6152
10 Cincinnati 0.6041
11 NY Giants 0.5809
12 Atlanta 0.5789
13 Miami 0.5656
14 San Diego 0.5546
15 Pittsburgh 0.5498
16 San Francisco 0.5401
17 Dallas 0.5304
18 Chicago 0.5133
19 Houston 0.5105
20 Seattle 0.5092
21 Philadelphia 0.4947
22 Buffalo 0.4389
23 Jacksonville 0.4286
24 Cleveland 0.3547
25 Tennessee 0.3373
26 Detroit 0.3260
27 Kansas City 0.3153
28 Oakland 0.2962
29 Carolina 0.2900
30 Washington 0.2664
31 St. Louis 0.2111
32 Tampa Bay 0.2103

Sunday, October 25, 2009

2009 NFL WASEAN Ratings, through week 6

Been slacking on these, but here are the WASEAN NFL ratings heading into week 7:


Rank Team WASEAN
1 New Orleans Saints 0.7711
2 Indianapolis Colts 0.7112
3 Denver Broncos 0.7070
4 New England Patriots 0.6861
5 Minnesota Vikings 0.6702
6 Atlanta Falcons 0.6532
7 New York Giants 0.6303
8 Baltimore Ravens 0.6158
9 Chicago Bears 0.5922
10 Green Bay Packers 0.5919
11 Arizona Cardinals 0.5753
12 New York Jets 0.5721
13 San Francisco 49ers 0.5705
14 Miami Dolphins 0.5503
15 Cincinnati Bengals 0.5435
16 Seattle Seahawks 0.5196
17 Philadelphia Eagles 0.5153
18 Dallas Cowboys 0.5137
19 Pittsburgh Steelers 0.5118
20 San Diego Chargers 0.4955
21 Houston Texans 0.4755
22 Jacksonville Jaguars 0.4103
23 Buffalo Bills 0.4051
24 Cleveland Browns 0.3772
25 Kansas City Chiefs 0.3695
26 Detroit Lions 0.3402
27 Oakland Raiders 0.3375
28 Carolina Panthers 0.3340
29 Tennessee Titans 0.3080
30 Washington Redskins 0.2964
31 St. Louis Rams 0.2267
32 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0.2174

2009 WASEAN ratings, week 8

Changes at the top this week. Alabama drops from #1 to #4 after barely surviving at home against the Vols. Texas, Florida and Cincinnati each move up a place.

Boise State and TCU also leapfrog Virginia Tech and Alabama, so the top 6 are now undefeated.

Iowa drops another place. Despite winning, they've gone from 3-10-13-14-15 the last 5 weeks. The system recognizes that they keep scraping by.

WASEAN is still not very impressed with the acronym schools. While USC and LSU are likely to be #6 and #9 when the BCS standings are released, WASEAN still only has them #12 and #19. USC actually dropped 3 places this week (passed by Georgia Tech, Oregon and Penn State), after winning a close game at home vs. #39 Oregon State.

Not a great slate of games next weekend. The two best are both in primetime, USC at Oregon and Texas at Oklahoma State.

RK
LW
Team
WASEAN
RW
RL
RT
1
2
Texas
0.8711
7
0
0
2
3
Florida
0.8644
7
0
0
3
4
Cincinnati
0.8594
7
0
0
4
1
Alabama
0.8551
8
0
0
5
6
Boise State
0.8537
7
0
0
6
8
TCU
0.8443
7
0
0
7
5
Virginia Tech
0.8333
5
2
0
8
7
Oklahoma
0.8328
4
3
0
9
13
Georgia Tech
0.8085
7
1
0
10
11
Oregon
0.8081
6
1
0
11
15
Penn State
0.7973
7
1
0
12
9
USC
0.7928
6
1
0
13
18
Pittsburgh
0.7878
7
1
0
14
12
Miami (FL)
0.7876
5
1
1
15
14
Iowa
0.7826
8
0
0
16
16
Fresno State
0.7728
4
2
1
17
28
Clemson
0.7698
3
3
1
18
19
Ohio State
0.7658
6
2
0
19
21
LSU
0.7632
6
1
0
20
20
Mississippi
0.7622
5
2
0
21
31
Villanova
0.7540
7
1
0
22
24
Central Michigan
0.7520
7
1
0
23
10
Nebraska
0.7508
4
3
0
24
22
Arizona
0.7476
5
2
0
25
25
Northern Iowa
0.7377
5
3
0
26
37
Tennessee
0.7280
3
4
0
27
26
Arkansas
0.7277
3
4
0
28
41
Richmond
0.7227
7
0
0
29
40
Stanford
0.7213
5
3
0
30
47
William & Mary
0.7168
6
1
0
31
36
Connecticut
0.7140
4
3
0
32
23
South Florida
0.7136
5
2
0
33
35
West Virginia
0.7084
6
1
0
34
38
Florida State
0.7078
3
4
0
35
34
Utah
0.7072
5
1
1
36
27
Kansas
0.7066
5
2
0
37
54
Oklahoma State
0.7062
6
1
0
38
32
South Carolina
0.6998
6
2
0
39
48
Oregon State
0.6993
4
3
0
40
33
Notre Dame
0.6988
4
2
1
41
45
Boston College
0.6976
4
3
1
42
44
Air Force
0.6944
4
2
2
43
46
Houston
0.6930
6
1
0
44
17
Texas Tech
0.6883
5
3
0
45
29
Brigham Young
0.6873
6
2
0
46
50
California
0.6840
5
2
0
47
42
Michigan State
0.6801
3
4
1
48
30
Michigan
0.6776
5
2
1
49
66
South Dakota State
0.6762
6
1
0
50
57
Kentucky
0.6741
4
3
0
51
43
Auburn
0.6678
5
3
0
52
51
North Carolina
0.6676
4
3
0
53
64
Elon
0.6649
6
1
0
54
55
Wisconsin
0.6631
4
2
1
55
59
Georgia
0.6619
4
3
0
56
39
Jacksonville State
0.6558
4
3
0
57
68
New Hampshire
0.6542
6
1
0
58
56
Navy
0.6540
4
2
2
59
52
Virginia
0.6519
3
4
0
60
63
Southern Illinois
0.6477
5
1
0
61
69
Mississippi State
0.6452
3
5
0
62
65
UCLA
0.6425
3
4
0
63
71
Iowa State
0.6411
5
3
0
64
49
Washington
0.6400
3
4
1
65
70
Delaware
0.6358
4
2
0
66
60
Arizona State
0.6312
4
3
0
67
62
Massachusetts
0.6300
4
3
0
68
73
Southern Miss
0.6261
5
3
0
69
77
Rutgers
0.6261
5
2
0
70
53
Missouri
0.6256
4
3
0
71
58
Northern Illinois
0.6190
4
3
0
72
76
Wake Forest
0.6171
4
3
1
73
61
Tulsa
0.6090
4
3
0
74
67
Duke
0.6048
4
3
0
75
86
Kansas State
0.5933
5
3
0
76
83
Stephen F. Austin
0.5899
5
1
0
77
81
Arkansas State
0.5893
2
4
0
78
96
Temple
0.5853
5
2
0
79
87
East Carolina
0.5837
4
3
0
80
79
Lafayette
0.5795
5
1
1
81
75
Minnesota
0.5777
3
4
1
82
93
Pennsylvania
0.5771
4
1
1
83
84
Montana
0.5768
5
0
1
84
72
Ohio
0.5756
4
3
1
85
104
UCF
0.5756
4
3
0
86
90
North Carolina State
0.5753
3
4
0
87
82
Purdue
0.5710
3
5
0
88
109
Texas A&M
0.5652
4
3
0
89
95
Marshall
0.5626
5
3
0
90
117
Harvard
0.5620
4
2
0
91
94
Troy
0.5617
5
2
0
92
78
Baylor
0.5595
3
4
0
93
98
South Carolina State
0.5546
6
1
0
94
124
Holy Cross
0.5535
6
1
0
95
112
Appalachian State
0.5533
4
2
1
96
100
Nevada
0.5506
4
3
0
97
85
Liberty
0.5502
4
2
0
98
74
Idaho
0.5493
6
2
0
99
80
Colorado
0.5491
2
5
0
100
88
Louisiana-Monroe
0.5461
4
3
0
101
92
Southern Methodist
0.5449
3
2
2
102
97
Bowling Green
0.5355
3
5
0
103
108
San Diego State
0.5351
3
4
0
104
89
Central Arkansas
0.5324
3
2
0
105
114
Buffalo
0.5311
3
4
1
106
111
Louisville
0.5252
2
5
0
107
91
Colorado State
0.5182
3
5
0
108
99
Northern Arizona
0.5175
5
1
1
109
127
Albany
0.5168
6
2
0
110
106
James Madison
0.5160
2
4
1
111
105
Central Connecticut State
0.5149
6
1
0
112
140
Brown
0.5143
4
2
0
113
119
Vanderbilt
0.5142
2
5
1
114
102
Louisiana Tech
0.5107
3
4
0
115
120
Florida A&M
0.5090
5
2
0
116
116
Syracuse
0.5083
3
3
1
117
107
Indiana
0.5080
4
4
0
118
103
Western Michigan
0.5046
3
4
1
119
113
Weber State
0.5042
5
3
0
120
118
Colgate
0.4987
6
1
1
121
110
Northwestern
0.4978
5
3
0
122
132
Southern Utah
0.4973
2
4
0
123
130
Middle Tennessee
0.4939
4
3
0
124
134
Kent State
0.4892
4
4
0
125
123
Utah State
0.4814
2
5
0
126
160
Eastern Illinois
0.4805
6
2
0
127
115
McNeese State
0.4764
4
2
0
128
139
Yale
0.4759
3
3
0
129
101
Columbia
0.4742
2
4
0
130
125
Wyoming
0.4658
4
3
0
131
131
Cal Poly
0.4636
3
3
0
132
143
UTEP
0.4606
3
4
0
133
142
Samford
0.4555
2
4
0
134
141
Eastern Washington
0.4538
4
3
0
135
152
Maryland
0.4520
1
6
1
136
129
Akron
0.4505
1
6
0
137
155
Maine
0.4482
2
4
0
138
158
Dayton
0.4481
6
0
0
139
135
California-Davis
0.4470
2
3
1
140
121
Florida International
0.4444
1
6
0
141
147
Fordham
0.4438
3
4
0
142
148
Hofstra
0.4414
4
4
0
143
133
San Jose State
0.4390
1
5
0
144
137
South Dakota
0.4385
2
2
2
145
146
UNLV
0.4331
3
5
0
146
156
Florida Atlantic
0.4325
2
4
0
147
149
Illinois
0.4318
1
6
0
148
126
Toledo
0.4290
4
4
0
149
136
Furman
0.4276
4
3
0
150
144
North Dakota State
0.4262
1
7
0
151
128
Drake
0.4254
4
1
0
152
122
Hawaii
0.4250
2
5
0
153
153
Norfolk State
0.4194
2
4
0
154
165
Youngstown State
0.4188
4
3
0
155
162
Missouri State
0.4150
5
3
0
156
157
Stony Brook
0.4129
4
4
0
157
145
Montana State
0.4109
2
3
1
158
138
Chattanooga
0.4086
3
3
0
159
151
UAB
0.4037
2
5
0
160
166
Memphis
0.3997
2
5
0
161
154
Georgia Southern
0.3935
4
4
0
162
168
Citadel
0.3926
3
3
1
163
175
Lehigh
0.3883
2
5
0
164
183
Jacksonville
0.3853
3
3
0
165
174
Illinois State
0.3741
3
4
0
166
159
North Texas
0.3741
1
5
1
167
163
Army
0.3728
2
5
1
168
150
North Dakota
0.3692
3
3
0
169
169
Ball State
0.3577
1
7
0
170
182
Bryant
0.3566
2
4
0
171
172
Delaware State
0.3564
2
4
0
172
173
Eastern Kentucky
0.3554
4
3
0
173
164
Monmouth
0.3527
3
4
0
174
177
Grambling State
0.3519
4
3
0
175
212
Dartmouth
0.3493
1
5
0
176
190
Wagner
0.3480
2
2
1
177
179
Prairie View A&M
0.3455
5
1
0
178
161
Louisiana-Lafayette
0.3435
4
3
0
179
171
Cornell
0.3415
2
4
0
180
170
Washington State
0.3392
0
6
1
181
176
Coastal Carolina
0.3392
3
4
0
182
185
Miami (OH)
0.3340
0
8
0
183
178
Marist
0.3322
4
3
0
184
180
Texas State
0.3311
3
2
1
185
186
Rhode Island
0.3298
1
6
0
186
194
St. Francis (PA)
0.3296
2
5
1
187
181
Old Dominion
0.3227
4
2
0
188
199
Southeastern Louisiana
0.3200
1
3
1
189
188
Robert Morris
0.3191
1
6
0
190
167
San Diego
0.3148
2
4
0
191
191
Wofford
0.3140
2
5
0
192
189
Hampton
0.3104
3
4
0
193
184
Northern Colorado
0.3089
2
6
0
194
192
Alabama A&M
0.3049
3
3
0
195
196
Virginia Military
0.2998
2
5
0
196
203
Tennessee Tech
0.2922
3
3
0
197
187
Western Illinois
0.2899
1
6
0
198
198
Sacred Heart
0.2819
1
6
0
199
201
Portland State
0.2807
1
6
0
200
195
New Mexico State
0.2761
3
5
0
201
197
Eastern Michigan
0.2741
0
7
0
202
193
Tulane
0.2738
2
5
0
203
208
North Carolina A&T
0.2726
3
3
1
204
205
Gardner-Webb
0.2712
3
2
0
205
200
Duquesne
0.2666
2
6
0
206
219
Austin Peay
0.2663
2
4
0
207
213
Sacramento State
0.2572
2
5
0
208
207
Princeton
0.2554
1
4
1
209
227
Northeastern
0.2425
1
6
0
210
206
Bucknell
0.2411
3
4
0
211
220
Davidson
0.2389
2
4
0
212
211
Butler
0.2366
3
0
1
213
210
Towson
0.2334
2
5
0
214
202
Western Kentucky
0.2313
0
7
0
215
216
Morgan State
0.2306
4
2
1
216
215
North Carolina Central
0.2305
0
4
2
217
204
New Mexico
0.2295
0
7
0
218
218
Tennessee State
0.2251
3
4
0
219
221
Tennessee-Martin
0.2243
2
5
0
220
223
Arkansas-Pine Bluff
0.2193
1
1
1
221
209
Rice
0.2186
0
8
0
222
214
Sam Houston State
0.2170
2
4
0
223
228
Charleston Southern
0.2131
1
5
0
224
226
Winston-Salem State
0.2111
1
5
1
225
217
Alcorn State
0.2074
2
4
0
226
225
Southern University
0.1968
2
3
0
227
222
Bethune-Cookman
0.1952
2
4
0
228
224
Western Carolina
0.1948
1
6
0
229
233
Southeast Missouri State
0.1837
0
6
0
230
230
Georgetown
0.1835
0
7
0
231
231
Jackson State
0.1714
2
4
1
232
240
Indiana State
0.1713
1
6
0
233
229
Murray State
0.1676
1
5
0
234
238
Morehead State
0.1636
0
5
2
235
234
Howard
0.1633
2
5
0
236
232
Northwestern State
0.1575
0
7
0
237
236
Campbell
0.1563
0
5
0
238
239
Nicholls State
0.1539
1
6
0
239
235
Presbyterian
0.1531
0
7
0
240
243
Alabama State
0.1403
2
3
0
241
241
Texas Southern
0.1369
1
4
0
242
237
Valparaiso
0.1238
0
4
0
243
242
Idaho State
0.1219
0
7
0
244
244
Mississippi Valley State
0.0850
1
5
0
245
245
Savannah State
0.0673
0
5
0