What if WASEAN were used for the BCS Standings?

I was wondering what the BCS bowl set up would be if WASEAN were used to determine the matchups.

What I'll do is use the BCS rules, but my ratings to determine who stays and goes. I'll use WASEAN to project the winners of any relevant remaining games as well.

Pertinent rules are:

1) No team can get a BCS at large berth with fewer than 9 wins or a ranking lower than #14.

2) No more than two teams can get a BCS bid from any conference.

3) The best non-BCS conference champion gets an automatic berth, as long as they are ranked in the top 12, or the top 16 if they are ahead of a BCS league champion. Other non-BCS conference champions that meet the ranking requirements of this rule are eligible to be selected for an at large berth.
4) Notre Dame is guaranteed a bid if they finish in the top 8.

5) The #3 team gets an automatic bid if they are from a BCS league.

6) The #4 team gets an automatic bid if they are from a BCS league and the #3 team already gets an automatic bid for winning their league, or qualifying under rule #3.

I guess #4 isn't really relevant after all . . .

So we'll start with the automatic bids.

ACC Championship: #9 Georgia Tech defeats #10 Clemson in OT. These teams are separated by a hair in the ratings .7991-.7989. Flip a coin.

Big East Champion: #12 Pittsburgh squeaks past #32 WVU on the road and #7 Cincinnati at home.

Big Ten Champion: Here's where it gets interesting . . . WASEAN doesn't count OT. If WASEAN were running the show, there'd be no OT. So according to WASEAN, #14 Ohio State and #29 Iowa would both be 5-1-1 in the Big Ten.

With projected wins for both next week vs. #70 Michigan and #73 Minnesota, we go to the tiebreakers, and we have a tie head to head. So the next tie-breaker is overall record. #Ohio State lost to #35 USC. Iowa beat #26 Arizona, and the rest of their non-conference foes. Iowa would be headed to the Rose Bowl. This must explain why Kirk Ferentz ran out the clock at the end of regulation. He knew a tie would put him in the Rose Bowl!

Big 12 Championship: #1 Texas defeats #16 Nebraska.

Pac 10 Champion: #11 Oregon edges #26 Arizona on the road and beats #30 Oregon State at home to go to the Rose Bowl.

SEC Championship: #3 Florida beats #4 Alabama by a point in a classic game for the ages.

TCU would also get an automatic bid, as the #2 team in the country, despite not being in a BCS league.

This leaves 3 at larges, to be selected from (all records projected):

#4 Alabama (12-1)

#5 Boise State (13-0)

#7 Cincinnati (11-1)

#8 Virginia Tech (9-3)

#13 Miami (FL) (9-2-1)
#6 Oklahoma is eliminated from the at large pool due to an 8-4 record. #10 Clemson is also eliminated at 8-4-1.

We'll do the bowls two ways. First we'll do them they way the would happen, with politics, 'travelability', etc. involved. Second we'll do them 'pure' assuming the highest ranked team is chosen at each juncture.

Here are your political bowls, from worst to first:

New Year's Day 2010
Sugar Bowl: #3 Florida (13-0) vs. #13 Miami (FL) (9-2-1)

Rose Bowl: #11 Oregon (10-2) vs. #29 Iowa (10-1-1)

January 4, 2010

Fiesta Bowl: #4 Alabama (12-1) vs. #5 Boise State (13-0)

January 5, 2010

Orange Bowl: #9 Georgia Tech (11-1-1) vs. #12 Pittsburgh (11-1)

January 7, 2010:

National Championship Game: #1 Texas (13-0) vs. #2 TCU (12-0)

The Fiesta Bowl gets first pick (for losing Texas) and takes Alabama. The Orange Bowl has the next pick and takes Pitt, since they wouldn't take an ACC school. The Fiesta takes Boise over Miami thinking that Boise will travel better to Arizona, and allowing an all Florida matchup in the Sugar Bowl. VA Tech would have been in that spot, but the Fiesta would not want a rematch.

Now the bowls using straight rankings to determine participants:

New Year's Day 2010
Sugar Bowl: #3 Florida (13-0) vs. #12 Pittsburgh (11-1)

Rose Bowl: #11 Oregon (10-2) vs. #29 Iowa (10-1-1)

January 4, 2010

Fiesta Bowl: #4 Alabama (12-1) vs. #7 Cincinnati (11-1)

January 5, 2010

Orange Bowl: #9 Georgia Tech (11-1-1) vs. #5 Boise State (13-0)

January 7, 2010:

National Championship Game: #1 Texas (13-0) vs. #2 TCU (12-0)

Usually I like the pure matchups better, but this time I think the political ones are better.

As it stands right now, this is what I'm projecting the actual BCS Bowls to look like:

New Year's Day 2010

Sugar Bowl: #4 Alabama (12-1) vs. #2 TCU (12-0)

Rose Bowl: #11 Oregon (10-2) vs. #14 Ohio State (10-2)

January 4, 2010

Fiesta Bowl: #19 Penn State (10-2) vs. #5 Boise State (13-0)

January 5, 2010

Orange Bowl: #9 Georgia Tech (12-1) vs. #12 Pittsburgh (11-1)

January 7, 2010:

National Championship Game: #3 Florida (13-0) vs. #1 Texas (13-0)

I think we will hit the perfect storm where the BCS will be forced to chose two of TCU/Boise State/Cincinnati. That would happen if this is your final BCS top 14:

1-2 Florida/Texas both 13-0
3 Alabama 12-1
4 TCU 12-0
5 Boise State 13-0
6 Georgia Tech 12-1
7 Pitt 11-1
8 Ohio State 10-2
9 Oregon 10-2
10 Cincinnati 11-1
11 Iowa 10-2
12 Penn State 10-2
13 Wisconsin 10-2
14 LSU 9-3