2009 Bowls, Using Merit to Determine Placement

While almost all bowls are filled by contracts between the games and the conferences, the order within the conference that bowls use to select teams is not determined by merit. It’s determined by a mix of merit, TV appeal, travelability (new word?) of teams and ‘stories’, like a coach or player’s last game.

This doesn’t seem very fair. What would the bowl matchups look like if they were forced to take the best available team? How do you determine the best available team?

The previous post looked at just the BCS Bowls, but now we’ll go a step further. The bowl quality will be determined by payout first, then ‘preference’ as described in the collegebcs.com bowl notes section. The best teams should get the highest paying bowls.

Team quality would be determined by conference standings first, including specific conference tie-breakers where they exist. Where they don’t exist we’ll go with head to head, followed by team rating. We’ll use WASEAN for the ‘team rating’ tiebreaker, of course.

Teams must have 7 wins (only one win against an FCS opponent can count) to be bowl eligible. Also all 7 win teams must go to bowls before any 6 win teams. However, conferences can use 6 win teams to fulfill bowl commitments after all 7-5 or better teams have been taken. Remember, only regulation counts too. For purposes of this rule ties will count as half of a win.

Let’s go conference by conference to determine the team order, then we’ll place them in the bowls. The number in parenthesis is the number of bowl contracts a  league has. (+1) indicates at large berth in a BCS bowl.

SEC (9+1): Alabama, Florida, LSU, Mississippi, Georgia, Arkansas, Tennessee, Kentucky, Auburn, South Carolina.

ACC (9+1): Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech, Miami (FL), Clemson, Boston College, North Carolina, Florida State, Wake Forest (who would be eligible at 5-5-2 if only regulation were considered). 2 openings.

Big 12 (8): Texas, Nebraska, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Missouri, Texas A&M, Iowa State.

Big East (6): Cincinnati, West Virginia, Pittsburgh, Rutgers, Connecticut, South Florida.

Pac 10 (6): Oregon, Arizona, Oregon State, Stanford, USC, Cal. UCLA also eligible at 6-6.

Big Ten (7): Iowa, Ohio State, Penn State, Northwestern, WIsconsin. 2 openings.

Mountain West (5+1): TCU, Brigham Young, Utah, Air Force, Wyoming. 1 opening.

Independents (2): Navy. Notre Dame would be eligible but chose not to go to a bowl. Army would not be eligible, as they are 4-6-1 in regulation. 1 opening.

WAC (3+1): Boise State, Nevada, Fresno State, Idaho.

Conference USA (5): East Carolina, UCF, Houston, Southern Methodist, Southern Miss. Marshall also eligible at 6-6.

MAC (3): Central Michigan, Ohio, Temple. Bowling Green & Northern Illinois also eligible at 7-5.

Sun Belt (1): Troy. Middle Tennessee eligible at 9-3, LA-Lafayette eligible at 6-5-1 and LA-Monroe eligible at 6-6.

Now we start filling in the bowls:

First the BCS games, as determined previously.

Championship Game: #1 Texas (13-0) vs. #2 Alabama (13-0)
Orange Bowl: #10 Georgia Tech (10-2-1) vs. #6 Boise State (13-0)
Fiesta Bowl: #3 TCU (12-0) vs. #5 Virginia Tech (9-3)
Sugar Bowl: #4 Florida (12-1) vs. #7 Cincinnati (12-0)
Rose Bowl: #9 Oregon (9-2-1) vs. #28 Iowa (10-1-1)

And now the rest of bowls, by order of payout:

Capital One ($4.25m): #12 Ohio State (9-2-1) vs. #13 LSU (8-3-1)
Cotton ($3.00m): #16 Nebraska (9-4) vs. #19 Mississippi (8-4)
Outback ($3.00m): #18 Penn State (10-2) vs. #39 Georgia (7-5)
Chick-Fil-A ($3.25m ACC, $2.4m SEC): #11 Miami (FL) (9-2-1) vs. #15 Arkansas (7-4-1)
Gator ($2.5m): #17 Clemson (7-5-1) vs. #27 West Virginia (9-3)
Alamo ($2.25m): #37 Oklahoma State (9-3) vs. #77 Northwestern (8-4)
Champs Sports ($2.25m): #38 Wisconsin (8-3-1) vs. #41 Boston College (7-4-1)
Holiday ($2.2m): #20 Texas Tech (8-4) vs. #22 Arizona (8-3-1)
Sun ($1.9m): #8 Oklahoma (7-5) vs. #24 Oregon State (8-4)
Music City ($1.7m): #23 Tennessee (6-5-1) vs. #25 North Carolina (8-4)
Liberty ($1.7m): #40 Kentucky (7-4-1) vs. #47 East Carolina (9-4)
Texas ($1.25m): #42 Missouri (8-4) vs. #51 Navy (6-4-2)
Insight ($1.2m): #60 Texas A&M (6-6) vs. #75 Bowling Green (7-5)
Independence ($1.2m): #26 Auburn (7-5) vs. #76 Iowa State (6-6)
Meineke Car Care: ($1.0m): #14 Pittsburgh (9-3) vs. #43 Florida State (6-6)
Las Vegas: ($1.0m): #29 Stanford (8-4) vs. #35 Brigham Young (9-2-1)
Emerald: ($900K Pac 10, $750K ACC): #36 USC (8-4) vs. #53 Wake Forest (5-5-2)
Little Caesar’s: ($750K): #21 Central Michigan (11-2) vs. #59 UCLA (6-6)
Humanitarian: ($750K): #44 Nevada (8-4) vs. #61 Northern Illinois (7-5)
GMAC: ($750K): #65 Ohio (8-4-1) vs. #93 Louisiana-Monroe (6-6)
International: ($750K): #45 Rutgers (8-4) vs. #62 Temple (9-3)
Papajohns.com: ($750K): #31 Connecticut (6-5-1) vs. #33 South Carolina (7-5)
Armed Forces: ($750K): #30 Houston (10-3) vs. #32 Air Force (7-3-2)
Poinsetta: ($750K): #34 Utah (8-2-2) vs. #56 California (8-4)
New Mexico: ($750K): #88 Idaho (7-5) vs. #95 Wyoming (6-6)
Hawai’i: ($750K): #49 Fresno State (8-3-1) vs. #58 UCF (8-4)
New Orleans: ($750K): #67 Troy (9-3) vs. #86 Southern Methodist (7-3-2)
St. Petersburg: (N/A): #50 South Florida (7-5) vs. #54 Southern Miss (7-5)
Eagle Bank: (N/A): #78 Marshall (6-6) vs. #107 Louisiana-Lafayette (6-5-1)

I think these matchups are much more fair than the ones we are given. Florida State shouldn’t get to play in the Gator Bowl because it’s Bobby Bowden’s last game. A Big Ten team shouldn’t go to the BCS over Virginia Tech, just because they travel better.