2009 Week 9 Projections

OK, let's use WASEAN to predict today's games. The caveats are:

1) We're using the over/unders to project total points (average of whatever lines are posted on the yahoo odds page).

2) I'm rounding off, so everything might not exactly add up.

3) The projection assume each team will play exactly like they have, on average, all season. If someone's star QB was there all year and just went down, the system doesn't know this.

Basically these are the scores that wouldn't change either team's WASEAN rating. I calculate it out to the 100th of a point (i.e. 25.25), but I'll post the rounded off scores.

I'll round a little differently than most, to make these useful. From 2006-2008, a team scored exactly 11 points in 4 of 791 games in a dataset I had handy. I'm not expecting Indiana to do so today, despite my projection. We'll round them down to 10 and bet they don't go for 2.

Another example, two teams project to less than 5.5 points, and I'm not going to go projecting safties, so I'll round them to 3 or 6, since 1 team in the dataset finished a game with 5 points.

Here are the projections for the top 25 and a few other games (sorted by game time):

Cincinnati 38 @ Syracuse 14

Indiana 10 @ Iowa 35

New Mexico State 6 @ Ohio State 42

Rutgers 17 @ UConn 28

Mississippi 26 @ Auburn 24

Nebraska 27 @ Baylor 20

Coastal Carolina 10 @ Clemson 45

San Jose State 10 @ Boise State 45

Florida 34 vs. Georgia 16

Miami (FL) 30 @ Wake Forest 21

Central Michigan 24 @ Boston College 24

Michigan 34 @ Illinois 21

Kansas 31 @ Texas Tech 34

UNLV 10 @ TCU 48

Penn State 31 @ Northwestern 14

Utah State 17 @ Fresno State 45

Kansas State 13 @ Oklahoma 35

Eastern Michigan 13 @ Arkansas 49

Georgia Tech 31 @ Vanderbilt 14

Washington State 17 vs. Notre Dame 42

South Carolina 17 @ Tennessee 24

Texas 34 @ Oklahoma State 21

Tulane 3 @ LSU 41

USC 21 @ Oregon 26

EDIT 11:47 a.m. CDT 10/31: I ran a few more . . .

UCLA 20 @ Oregon State 28
SMU 21 @ Tulsa 30
Missouri 24 @ Colorado 23
Wyoming 13 @ Utah 31
Michigan State 24 @ Minnesota 23