2010 WASEAN Team Ratings – Week 10

After hammering Utah 47-7, TCU has somewhat narrowed the gap on Boise State for #2 (from .0118 to .0074). But Boise's win over Hawaii was nearly as impressive. Oregon, Boise and TCU are WAY ahead of everyone else. Any of them could probably lose a game (depending on to who) and still be in the top 3.

For some perspective, after the bowls, last year Alabama finished at .8592 and Texas at #5 was .8450. Through week 10 last year, Texas was at .8772, TCU at .8721, Florida .8698 and Alabama .8423. The teams at the top have been better this year than last. Oregon is at .9040, Boise State .8971 and TCU .8897.

Auburn is creeping up. Chattanooga isn't a bad FCS team (WASEAN has them #24 among that group), so yesterday really was impressive. But subjectively, the only team that is ahead of Auburn that I'd move the Tigers ahead of is Ohio State.

Also, I wouldn't sleep on Georgia @ Auburn next week. WASEAN sees a 35-24 game, so Auburn 1) has to win by that just to maintain their rating, and 2) needs to keep from looking ahead. Georgia is dangerous, they've been a much better team since the Colorado game. There have been bigger upsets. Right now the computer sees Auburn as a 7.5 point dog at Alabama (32-24.5).

Here’s another nifty thing I discovered while figuring those games out . . . for a ballpark point spread you can give the home team 3.5 points and then give the higher rated team 1 point for every .009 they are ahead in rating. So a .836 hosting a .804, would get get 3.5 points for being at home and another 3.6 for rating, giving them a 7.1 point edge. Those are the ratings for Alabama and Auburn, so it works out relatively close. Using this method to figure Georgia @ Auburn would give a 10.9 point spread.

One other thing to note – the top four teams in the FCS (Delaware, William & Mary, Villanova and New Hampshire) are all in the Colonial. JMU, the team that beat Virginia Tech, has lost to 3 of those 4, plays William & Mary this week and is 1-5 in the league.

JMU still sits as the #12 ranked team in the FCS, that’s how good the Colonial is. Even if the VA Tech game had never happened, JMU would be #21 in the FCS. And the Colonial would still be ranked ahead of the WAC and MWC.

Please click the ‘read more’ link to see the rankings.

RK	LW	Team	WASEAN	RW	RL	RT
1	1	Oregon	0.9040	9	0	0
2	2	Boise State	0.8971	8	0	0
3	3	TCU	0.8897	10	0	0
4	5	Ohio State	0.8391	8	1	0
5	4	Alabama	0.8360	7	2	0
6	6	Stanford	0.8315	8	1	0
7	10	Auburn	0.8041	9	0	1
8	14	Arkansas	0.7957	7	2	0
9	9	Iowa	0.7869	7	2	0
10	8	Missouri	0.7696	7	2	0
11	21	LSU	0.7692	8	1	0
12	20	Oklahoma State	0.7687	8	1	0
13	11	Arizona	0.7638	7	2	0
14	12	Nebraska	0.7636	7	1	1
15	7	Utah	0.7635	7	1	1
16	13	Oregon State	0.7569	4	3	1
17	15	Virginia Tech	0.7548	7	2	0
18	33	Florida	0.7456	5	3	1
19	37	Delaware	0.7431	7	1	0
20	32	Nevada	0.7422	8	1	0
21	18	Florida State	0.7417	6	3	0
22	23	Arizona State	0.7416	4	5	0
23	19	North Carolina State	0.7405	6	2	1
24	30	Texas A&M	0.7381	6	3	0
25	25	Georgia	0.7374	5	4	1
26	17	Oklahoma	0.7362	7	2	0
27	22	Miami (FL)	0.7345	6	3	0
28	16	South Carolina	0.7340	6	3	0
29	24	USC	0.7316	6	3	0
30	31	Wisconsin	0.7278	8	1	0
31	26	Illinois	0.7226	5	3	1
32	28	Pittsburgh	0.7222	5	2	1
33	35	UCF	0.7126	7	2	0
34	41	William & Mary	0.7117	7	2	0
35	29	Villanova	0.7111	6	3	0
36	38	Mississippi State	0.7084	7	2	0
37	36	Michigan State	0.7075	8	1	1
38	27	Hawaii	0.7056	7	3	0
39	34	California	0.7041	5	4	0
40	45	North Carolina	0.6970	6	3	0
41	40	Air Force	0.6948	6	4	0
42	43	West Virginia	0.6873	4	2	2
43	42	Clemson	0.6864	5	3	1
44	39	Baylor	0.6826	7	3	0
45	52	Kansas State	0.6696	6	3	0
46	44	New Hampshire	0.6653	5	3	1
47	46	Appalachian State	0.6625	8	0	1
48	48	Penn State	0.6567	6	3	0
49	50	Michigan	0.6564	5	3	1
50	49	Northern Illinois	0.6552	7	2	0
51	56	Louisville	0.6532	5	4	0
52	55	Maryland	0.6522	6	3	0
53	53	Jacksonville	0.6510	8	1	0
54	54	Tulsa	0.6496	6	3	0
55	57	Temple	0.6483	7	2	1
56	64	Navy	0.6463	6	3	0
57	47	Syracuse	0.6445	6	3	0
58	60	Robert Morris	0.6290	8	1	0
59	63	Georgia Tech	0.6266	5	4	0
60	51	San Diego State	0.6264	7	2	0
61	61	Notre Dame	0.6228	4	4	1
62	58	Kentucky	0.6217	5	5	0
63	59	South Florida	0.6158	5	3	0
64	65	Western Illinois	0.6150	6	3	0
65	73	Stephen F. Austin	0.6136	7	2	0
66	68	Wofford	0.6131	7	1	0
67	62	Cincinnati	0.6111	3	5	0
68	69	Fresno State	0.6031	6	2	0
69	79	Texas Tech	0.5959	5	4	0
70	67	Houston	0.5932	5	4	0
71	70	Mississippi	0.5900	4	4	1
72	102	Pennsylvania	0.5857	6	1	1
73	71	James Madison	0.5834	4	4	1
74	84	Massachusetts	0.5811	6	3	0
75	85	UCLA	0.5803	4	5	0
76	80	Jacksonville State	0.5756	6	0	2
77	82	Connecticut	0.5752	3	4	1
78	66	Texas	0.5743	4	5	0
79	90	Tennessee	0.5743	2	6	1
80	81	Sacramento State	0.5720	4	3	1
81	91	Georgia Southern	0.5679	4	4	1
82	89	Iowa State	0.5669	5	4	1
83	88	Bethune-Cookman	0.5650	8	0	0
84	83	Liberty	0.5650	7	2	0
85	76	Northwestern	0.5649	6	3	0
86	87	Southern Miss	0.5644	6	2	1
87	94	Harvard	0.5642	6	2	0
88	92	Ohio	0.5607	7	3	0
89	96	Rutgers	0.5578	3	4	1
90	72	Army	0.5572	5	3	1
91	77	Virginia	0.5563	4	5	0
92	75	Southern Methodist	0.5549	5	5	0
93	105	Old Dominion	0.5511	6	3	0
94	98	Boston College	0.5497	4	5	0
95	86	Toledo	0.5484	6	3	0
96	99	Eastern Washington	0.5472	6	2	0
97	74	East Carolina	0.5413	4	4	1
98	108	Northern Iowa	0.5390	6	2	1
99	109	Dayton	0.5383	8	1	0
100	93	Chattanooga	0.5363	5	4	0
101	104	Washington	0.5343	2	6	1
102	100	Northern Arizona	0.5341	4	4	0
103	103	Southern Utah	0.5338	5	4	0
104	106	Troy	0.5330	5	3	0
105	95	Louisiana Tech	0.5321	3	6	0
106	97	Furman	0.5301	5	4	0
107	112	Lehigh	0.5296	7	2	0
108	113	Arkansas State	0.5277	4	5	0
109	121	Brigham Young	0.5236	4	5	0
110	114	Indiana	0.5186	4	5	0
111	78	Idaho	0.5185	4	5	0
112	125	South Dakota State	0.5168	4	5	0
113	107	Elon	0.5108	3	4	1
114	119	South Alabama	0.5066	4	0	0
115	101	Colorado	0.5047	3	6	0
116	124	North Dakota State	0.5043	6	3	0
117	123	Montana State	0.5001	5	2	2
118	116	Montana	0.4994	5	3	0
119	111	Western Michigan	0.4978	3	6	0
120	131	Drake	0.4968	5	4	0
121	155	Bryant	0.4953	4	3	0
122	110	Kent State	0.4895	4	5	0
123	122	Central Michigan	0.4886	3	6	1
124	134	Cal Poly	0.4879	6	3	0
125	146	Central Arkansas	0.4860	5	3	0
126	130	Richmond	0.4845	3	4	2
127	128	Maine	0.4825	2	6	1
128	115	Florida International	0.4798	2	5	1
129	127	Youngstown State	0.4760	3	7	0
130	117	Sam Houston State	0.4758	4	4	1
131	118	Missouri State	0.4752	4	3	2
132	126	Samford	0.4714	3	5	0
133	148	Rhode Island	0.4712	3	5	1
134	142	Murray State	0.4704	4	5	0
135	141	Dartmouth	0.4682	5	2	1
136	135	Duke	0.4680	3	6	0
137	133	Monmouth	0.4664	3	6	0
138	120	UAB	0.4611	2	5	2
139	140	Central Connecticut State	0.4588	4	3	1
140	136	Colgate	0.4556	5	4	0
141	151	South Carolina State	0.4534	6	2	0
142	132	Purdue	0.4529	4	5	0
143	137	Southeast Missouri State	0.4489	8	1	0
144	157	Fordham	0.4476	5	4	0
145	165	Yale	0.4458	6	2	0
146	163	Wagner	0.4447	4	3	1
147	169	Albany	0.4408	4	4	1
148	129	Vanderbilt	0.4403	2	7	0
149	143	Washington State	0.4403	1	9	0
150	164	UTEP	0.4397	6	4	0
151	139	Miami (OH)	0.4384	5	4	0
152	150	Grambling State	0.4382	7	1	0
153	173	Stony Brook	0.4362	4	3	1
154	160	Duquesne	0.4312	5	4	0
155	177	San Diego	0.4286	4	5	0
156	153	Bowling Green	0.4285	2	7	0
157	175	Marshall	0.4271	3	5	1
158	161	Texas Southern	0.4236	5	2	0
159	154	Florida Atlantic	0.4225	3	5	0
160	156	Brown	0.4206	3	3	2
161	149	Minnesota	0.4190	1	9	0
162	147	Wake Forest	0.4178	2	7	0
163	166	Jackson State	0.4171	5	2	0
164	138	Wyoming	0.4153	2	8	0
165	144	Georgia State	0.4149	4	2	2
166	168	Columbia	0.4113	3	5	0
167	145	Utah State	0.4085	3	6	0
168	183	McNeese State	0.4054	5	4	0
169	158	Indiana State	0.4040	2	4	1
170	170	Eastern Kentucky	0.4035	2	5	0
171	180	Louisiana-Monroe	0.4001	4	4	1
172	159	Tulane	0.3990	3	6	0
173	167	Southern Illinois	0.3985	1	6	1
174	174	Colorado State	0.3969	3	7	0
175	162	South Dakota	0.3959	3	6	0
176	172	Weber State	0.3932	4	4	1
177	200	Coastal Carolina	0.3907	3	4	2
178	152	North Dakota	0.3896	2	6	0
179	203	California-Davis	0.3802	4	5	0
180	178	North Texas	0.3753	2	7	0
181	179	Sacred Heart	0.3752	3	7	0
182	181	Buffalo	0.3731	2	7	0
183	188	Portland State	0.3711	2	7	0
184	185	Holy Cross	0.3669	4	5	0
185	171	Ball State	0.3664	2	6	2
186	199	Kansas	0.3649	3	6	0
187	193	Georgetown	0.3639	3	5	1
188	192	Lafayette	0.3632	2	6	1
189	176	Middle Tennessee State	0.3619	3	5	0
190	206	Alcorn State	0.3539	4	4	0
191	196	Southeastern Louisiana	0.3532	2	6	0
192	198	Illinois State	0.3523	3	5	1
193	187	Western Kentucky	0.3516	1	8	0
194	189	Northwestern State	0.3515	2	4	1
195	184	Rice	0.3508	2	7	0
196	195	Louisiana-Lafayette	0.3481	2	7	0
197	194	San Jose State	0.3459	1	8	0
198	201	Prairie View A&M	0.3445	4	4	0
199	182	Texas State	0.3428	3	4	1
200	186	Tennessee Tech	0.3423	3	5	0
201	197	Tennessee State	0.3415	3	5	0
202	202	Alabama State	0.3398	5	3	0
203	207	Butler	0.3392	2	6	0
204	191	Marist	0.3334	3	6	0
205	215	Campbell	0.3295	2	6	0
206	205	Western Carolina	0.3250	2	6	0
207	204	Florida A&M	0.3248	5	3	1
208	211	Hampton	0.3212	5	4	0
209	209	Arkansas-Pine Bluff	0.3189	4	4	0
210	190	UNLV	0.3127	1	8	0
211	210	Tennessee-Martin	0.3112	4	5	0
212	212	Northern Colorado	0.2982	1	7	1
213	216	Gardner-Webb	0.2902	1	5	2
214	208	St. Francis (PA)	0.2850	1	8	0
215	222	Davidson	0.2818	3	5	0
216	214	Morehead State	0.2678	3	6	0
217	218	Towson	0.2615	0	8	1
218	217	Eastern Michigan	0.2597	0	8	1
219	213	North Carolina Central	0.2586	1	4	1
220	219	Eastern Illinois	0.2538	1	8	0
221	228	Norfolk State	0.2509	3	5	0
222	221	Bucknell	0.2508	1	8	0
223	220	Alabama A&M	0.2425	1	7	0
224	232	Akron	0.2420	0	8	2
225	231	Southern University	0.2414	2	5	0
226	230	New Mexico State	0.2390	2	7	0
227	239	Delaware State	0.2378	2	7	0
228	224	Citadel	0.2318	1	8	0
229	236	Lamar	0.2309	1	6	0
230	223	Princeton	0.2247	0	7	1
231	227	Idaho State	0.2242	0	7	1
232	229	Cornell	0.2233	2	6	0
233	235	Morgan State	0.2212	3	5	0
234	226	Memphis	0.2186	1	8	0
235	225	Virginia Military	0.2164	2	6	0
236	237	Charleston Southern	0.2182	0	7	0
237	238	New Mexico	0.2113	1	8	0
238	233	Nicholls State	0.2096	0	7	1
239	234	Presbyterian	0.1939	1	7	0
240	241	North Carolina A&T	0.1699	1	7	1
241	240	Austin Peay	0.1668	1	7	0
242	242	Valparaiso	0.1211	0	8	0
243	243	Savannah State	0.1127	0	7	0
244	244	Howard	0.1051	0	8	0
245	245	Mississippi Valley State	0.1026	0	9	0