2009 Week 10 Projections

I've run the WASEAN projections for Saturday's games. In case you don't remember from last week, the caveats are:

1) We're using the over/unders to project total points (average of whatever lines are posted on the Yahoo odds page).

2) I'm rounding off, so everything might not exactly add up.

3) The projection assume each team will play exactly like they have, on average, all season. If someone's star QB was there all year and just went down, the system doesn't know this. If a team finally figured it out, like say, Illinois last week, the system doesn't know if that's for real or an aberration.

Basically these are the scores that wouldn't change either team's WASEAN rating. I calculate it out to the 100th of a point (i.e. 25.25), but I'll post the rounded off scores.

I'll round a little differently than most, to make these useful. From 2006-2008, a team scored exactly 11 points in 4 of 791 games in a dataset I had handy. I'm not expecting Indiana to do so today, despite my projection. We'll round them down to 10 and bet they don't go for 2.

Another example, two teams project to less than 5.5 points, and I'm not going to go projecting safties, so I'll round them to 3 or 6, since 1 team in the dataset finished a game with 5 points.

Here are the projections for the top 25 and a few other games (sorted by game time):

UCF 7, Texas 38
Northwestern 13, Iowa 35
Syracuse 13, Pitt 37
Virginia 16, Miami 31
Wisconsin 31, Indiana 24
Western Michigan 19, Michigan State 35
Purdue 21, Michigan 30
Illinois 20, Minnesota 31
Louisville 20, West Virginia 36
South Carolina 24, Arkansas 30
Kansas 28, Kansas State 28 OT
Tennessee Tech 10, Georgia 38
Maryland 21, North Carolina State 34
Furman 17, Auburn 41
Texas A&M 28, Colorado 27
Baylor 17, Missouri 28
BYU 30, Wyoming 20
Navy 24, Notre Dame 31
Rice 13, SMU 44
LSU 14, Alabama 24
Oregon 31, Stanford 27
Wake Forest 20, Georgia Tech 41
Ohio State 17, Penn State 23
Washington State 13, Arizona 45
Oklahoma State 27, Iowa State 26
Washington 23, UCLA 27
Duke 20, North Carolina 28
Army 6, Air Force 31
TCU 38, San Diego State 13
New Mexico 7, Utah 41
Oregon State 27, Cal 31
Memphis 10, Tennessee 41
Vanderbilt 7, Florida 41
Houston 35, Tulsa 31
Northern Arizona 14, Mississippi 37
Florida State 23, Clemson 35
Connecticut 17, Cincinnati 38
USC 26, Arizona State 20
Oklahoma 21, Nebraska 21 OT
Utah State 31, Hawaii 30
Fresno State 38, Idaho 28
Nevada 34, San Jose State 30

I had Boise State 37, Louisiana Tech 14 for Friday night. Actual final was 45-35.