Sunday, November 1, 2009

2009 WASEAN ratings, week 9

The contenders stepped up in Week 9, except for Iowa, but even they turned it on in the 4th quarter and survived. Florida throttled Georgia 41-17 and was poised to take over the top spot, which would have been the fourth consecutive week with a lead change. TCU was ready to move into the 2 hole as well after destroying UNLV.

But Texas was up to the challenge and blew out Oklahoma State to remain #1. TCU did move past Alabama and Cincinnati and now sits at #3.

The top 6 have now separated themselves from the pack. Boise State at #6 is closer to passing Texas for #1 (.0306) than falling behind #7 Oregon (.0330).

Iowa has won every game, yet they continue to drop. Their six-week raw ranking trend is now 3-10-13-14-15-17. I saw raw ranking trend because I've made an adjustment to the formula this week. I've decided to recognize a limitation in any computer ranking system regarding undefeated/untied (remember we don't count OT) teams and winless/tieless teams.

Going forward, I will move undefeated teams above the best team they've beaten, and winless teams below the worst team they've lost to. I think this is a reasonable compromise to recognize the limitations of the system. As I understand it, the Billingsley rankings, which are one of the six computers used by the BCS also do this. So if you see a team above or below a team with a higher/lower rating, you'll know why.

This week the adjustment impacts the rankings of Iowa (17->11), New Mexico (202->206) and Georgetown (233->238)

Here are the rankings through week 9. I will update them with the Marshall/UCF game after it's played tonight.

RK LW Team WASEAN RW RL RT
1 1 Texas 0.8759 8 0 0
2 2 Florida 0.8729 8 0 0
3 6 TCU 0.8659 8 0 0
4 3 Cincinnati 0.8561 8 0 0
5 4 Alabama 0.8475 8 0 0
6 5 Boise State 0.8453 8 0 0
7 10 Oregon 0.8123 7 1 0
8 8 Oklahoma 0.8099 5 3 0
9 9 Georgia Tech 0.8084 8 1 0
10 7 Virginia Tech 0.7998 5 3 0
11 11 Iowa 0.7581 9 0 0
12 12 Penn State 0.7994 8 1 0
13 17 Clemson 0.7902 4 3 1
14 14 Pittsburgh 0.7889 7 1 0
15 19 LSU 0.7781 7 1 0
16 15 Miami (FL) 0.7689 6 1 1
17 18 Ohio State 0.7688 7 2 0
18 21 Villanova 0.7572 7 1 0
19 13 USC 0.7555 6 2 0
20 23 Nebraska 0.7467 5 3 0
21 26 Tennessee 0.7425 4 4 0
22 16 Fresno State 0.7373 5 2 1
23 25 Northern Iowa 0.7350 5 3 0
24 20 Mississippi 0.7337 5 3 0
25 24 Arizona 0.7301 5 2 0
26 32 South Florida 0.7255 6 2 0
27 30 William & Mary 0.7213 7 1 0
28 44 Texas Tech 0.7198 6 3 0
29 41 Boston College 0.7155 5 3 1
30 42 Air Force 0.7139 5 2 2
31 28 Richmond 0.7132 8 0 0
32 27 Arkansas 0.7128 4 4 0
33 29 Stanford 0.7120 5 3 0
34 22 Central Michigan 0.7062 7 2 0
35 35 Utah 0.6990 6 1 1
36 33 West Virginia 0.6963 6 2 0
37 34 Florida State 0.6955 4 4 0
38 43 Houston 0.6945 7 1 0
39 52 North Carolina 0.6921 5 3 0
40 37 Oklahoma State 0.6891 6 2 0
41 31 Connecticut 0.6886 4 4 0
42 45 Brigham Young 0.6865 6 2 0
43 51 Auburn 0.6864 6 3 0
44 53 Elon 0.6852 7 1 0
45 46 California 0.6851 6 2 0
46 54 Wisconsin 0.6848 5 2 1
47 39 Oregon State 0.6825 5 3 0
48 49 South Dakota State 0.6805 7 1 0
49 40 Notre Dame 0.6777 5 2 1
50 38 South Carolina 0.6776 6 3 0
51 61 Mississippi State 0.6722 4 5 0
52 36 Kansas 0.6640 5 3 0
53 60 Southern Illinois 0.6616 6 1 0
54 69 Rutgers 0.6587 6 2 0
55 56 Jacksonville State 0.6534 5 3 0
56 55 Georgia 0.6528 4 4 0
57 47 Michigan State 0.6519 3 5 1
58 50 Kentucky 0.6493 4 4 0
59 70 Missouri 0.6492 5 3 0
60 58 Navy 0.6445 4 3 2
61 62 UCLA 0.6371 3 5 0
62 57 New Hampshire 0.6361 7 1 0
63 72 Wake Forest 0.6311 4 4 1
64 64 Washington 0.6284 3 4 1
65 59 Virginia 0.6255 3 5 0
66 74 Duke 0.6227 5 3 0
67 68 Southern Miss 0.6191 5 4 0
68 48 Michigan 0.6143 5 3 1
69 71 Northern Illinois 0.6138 5 3 0
70 66 Arizona State 0.6136 4 4 0
71 88 Texas A&M 0.6111 5 3 0
72 79 East Carolina 0.6091 5 3 0
73 93 South Carolina State 0.6065 7 1 0
74 78 Temple 0.6045 6 2 0
75 75 Kansas State 0.6021 5 4 0
76 86 North Carolina State 0.5980 3 5 0
77 83 Montana 0.5975 6 0 1
78 63 Iowa State 0.5949 5 4 0
79 95 Appalachian State 0.5923 5 2 1
80 81 Minnesota 0.5919 4 4 1
81 67 Massachusetts 0.5859 4 4 0
82 91 Troy 0.5852 6 2 0
83 101 Southern Methodist 0.5815 4 2 2
84 65 Delaware 0.5782 4 3 0
85 82 Pennsylvania 0.5781 4 1 2
86 94 Holy Cross 0.5740 7 1 0
87 90 Harvard 0.5688 5 2 0
88 80 Lafayette 0.5653 6 1 1
89 84 Ohio 0.5634 5 3 1
90 73 Tulsa 0.5633 4 4 0
91 89 Marshall 0.5620 5 4 0
92 85 UCF 0.5618 5 3 0
93 77 Arkansas State 0.5609 2 5 0
94 97 Liberty 0.5533 5 2 0
95 110 James Madison 0.5514 3 4 1
96 96 Nevada 0.5475 5 3 0
97 92 Baylor 0.5444 3 5 0
98 76 Stephen F. Austin 0.5395 5 2 0
99 102 Bowling Green 0.5320 3 5 0
100 98 Idaho 0.5295 7 2 0
101 122 Southern Utah 0.5290 3 4 0
102 106 Louisville 0.5287 3 5 0
103 87 Purdue 0.5284 3 6 0
104 114 Louisiana Tech 0.5245 3 5 0
105 109 Albany 0.5218 6 3 0
106 125 Utah State 0.5213 2 6 0
107 112 Brown 0.5181 4 2 1
108 100 Louisiana-Monroe 0.5177 4 4 0
109 123 Middle Tennessee 0.5163 5 3 0
110 105 Buffalo 0.5152 3 4 1
111 111 Central Connecticut State 0.5133 7 1 0
112 116 Syracuse 0.5129 3 4 1
113 113 Vanderbilt 0.5103 2 6 1
114 99 Colorado 0.5101 2 6 0
115 117 Indiana 0.5089 4 5 0
116 104 Central Arkansas 0.5036 3 3 0
117 103 San Diego State 0.5018 4 4 0
118 134 Eastern Washington 0.4978 5 3 0
119 115 Florida A&M 0.4963 5 2 1
120 124 Kent State 0.4955 5 4 0
121 107 Colorado State 0.4954 3 6 0
122 120 Colgate 0.4950 7 1 1
123 127 McNeese State 0.4916 5 2 0
124 108 Northern Arizona 0.4889 5 2 1
125 121 Northwestern 0.4869 5 4 0
126 119 Weber State 0.4864 5 4 0
127 128 Yale 0.4863 4 3 0
128 147 Illinois 0.4822 2 6 0
129 130 Wyoming 0.4816 4 4 0
130 137 Maine 0.4779 3 4 0
131 118 Western Michigan 0.4727 3 5 1
132 126 Eastern Illinois 0.4676 7 2 0
133 135 Maryland 0.4660 1 6 1
134 153 Norfolk State 0.4595 3 4 0
135 129 Columbia 0.4583 2 5 0
136 131 Cal Poly 0.4438 3 4 0
137 138 Dayton 0.4432 7 0 0
138 142 Hofstra 0.4407 4 4 0
139 133 Samford 0.4393 2 5 0
140 184 Texas State 0.4385 4 2 1
141 136 Akron 0.4381 1 7 0
142 159 UAB 0.4312 3 5 0
143 151 Drake 0.4299 5 1 0
144 145 UNLV 0.4288 3 6 0
145 162 Citadel 0.4288 4 3 1
146 139 California-Davis 0.4283 2 4 1
147 144 South Dakota 0.4279 2 3 2
148 150 North Dakota State 0.4278 2 7 0
149 132 UTEP 0.4261 3 5 0
150 140 Florida International 0.4253 1 6 1
151 141 Fordham 0.4231 3 5 0
152 156 Stony Brook 0.4185 5 4 0
153 146 Florida Atlantic 0.4170 2 5 0
154 152 Hawaii 0.4151 2 6 0
155 143 San Jose State 0.4141 1 6 0
156 154 Youngstown State 0.4134 4 4 0
157 149 Furman 0.4133 4 4 0
158 165 Illinois State 0.4116 4 4 0
159 157 Montana State 0.4098 3 3 1
160 168 North Dakota 0.4097 4 3 0
161 161 Georgia Southern 0.4068 4 4 0
162 148 Toledo 0.4051 4 5 0
163 163 Lehigh 0.4000 2 6 0
164 164 Jacksonville 0.3930 3 4 0
165 155 Missouri State 0.3926 5 4 0
166 174 Grambling State 0.3886 5 3 0
167 158 Chattanooga 0.3865 4 3 0
168 177 Prairie View A&M 0.3801 5 1 0
169 166 North Texas 0.3769 2 5 1
170 160 Memphis 0.3760 2 6 0
171 167 Army 0.3750 2 5 1
172 178 Louisiana-Lafayette 0.3747 4 3 1
173 188 Southeastern Louisiana 0.3684 2 3 1
174 169 Ball State 0.3661 1 8 0
175 173 Monmouth 0.3565 4 4 0
176 172 Eastern Kentucky 0.3559 5 3 0
177 170 Bryant 0.3514 2 5 0
178 183 Marist 0.3471 5 3 0
179 175 Dartmouth 0.3468 1 6 0
180 176 Wagner 0.3456 2 2 2
181 187 Old Dominion 0.3424 5 2 0
182 182 Miami (OH) 0.3390 1 8 0
183 190 San Diego 0.3320 2 5 0
184 179 Cornell 0.3315 2 5 0
185 180 Washington State 0.3293 0 7 1
186 186 St. Francis (PA) 0.3274 2 5 1
187 171 Delaware State 0.3267 2 5 0
188 191 Wofford 0.3224 2 6 0
189 181 Coastal Carolina 0.3193 3 5 0
190 193 Northern Colorado 0.3192 3 6 0
191 185 Rhode Island 0.3164 1 7 0
192 192 Hampton 0.3123 3 4 1
193 189 Robert Morris 0.3117 2 6 0
194 194 Alabama A&M 0.3048 4 3 0
195 196 Tennessee Tech 0.2919 4 3 0
196 198 Sacred Heart 0.2898 1 7 0
197 207 Sacramento State 0.2826 3 5 0
198 195 Virginia Military 0.2791 2 6 0
199 197 Western Illinois 0.2758 1 7 0
200 204 Gardner-Webb 0.2747 3 3 0
201 201 Eastern Michigan 0.2737 0 8 0
202 206 Austin Peay 0.2721 2 5 0
203 208 Princeton 0.2716 2 4 1
204 205 Duquesne 0.2700 2 6 1
205 200 New Mexico State 0.2693 3 6 0
206 217 New Mexico 0.2723 0 8 0
207 215 Morgan State 0.2662 4 2 2
208 227 Bethune-Cookman 0.2648 3 4 0
209 202 Tulane 0.2636 2 6 0
210 223 Charleston Southern 0.2626 2 5 0
211 203 North Carolina A&T 0.2622 3 4 1
212 209 Northeastern 0.2596 1 7 0
213 212 Butler 0.2561 4 0 1
214 199 Portland State 0.2538 1 7 0
215 210 Bucknell 0.2514 3 5 0
216 226 Southern University 0.2480 3 3 0
217 211 Davidson 0.2395 2 5 0
218 218 Tennessee State 0.2377 3 5 0
219 224 Winston-Salem State 0.2367 1 5 2
220 216 North Carolina Central 0.2359 0 4 2
221 214 Western Kentucky 0.2358 0 8 0
222 213 Towson 0.2316 2 6 0
223 219 Tennessee-Martin 0.2240 2 5 0
224 228 Western Carolina 0.2212 1 7 0
225 221 Rice 0.2177 0 8 0
226 222 Sam Houston State 0.2145 3 4 0
227 241 Texas Southern 0.2122 2 4 0
228 230 Jackson State 0.1904 2 4 1
229 225 Alcorn State 0.1895 2 5 0
230 220 Arkansas-Pine Bluff 0.1894 1 2 1
231 229 Southeast Missouri State 0.1874 0 7 0
232 232 Murray State 0.1869 1 6 0
233 236 Northwestern State 0.1820 0 8 0
234 237 Campbell 0.1712 1 5 0
235 231 Indiana State 0.1675 1 7 0
236 238 Nicholls State 0.1657 1 7 0
237 234 Howard 0.1642 2 6 0
238 235 Georgetown 0.1825 0 8 0
239 233 Morehead State 0.1633 0 6 2
240 239 Presbyterian 0.1590 0 8 0
241 240 Alabama State 0.1462 2 4 0
242 242 Valparaiso 0.1247 0 5 0
243 243 Idaho State 0.1184 0 8 0
244 244 Mississippi Valley State 0.0817 1 6 0
245 245 Savannah State 0.0797 0 5 0

3 comments:

Anonymous said...

Projections ???

Joe D said...

I should have them up later tonight.

I do have tonight's game done, Boise State 37, Louisiana Tech 14

Anonymous said...

This system is FLAWED. One of the only teams to of beated 2 top 10 teams is not on the list. This same team has only one loss. They must be a flaw in the system. What team you ask? Wisconsin!